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Just how likely a person is to die from extreme heat in a warming climate will depend on where they live. According to a report published today by the Climate Impact Lab, 90% of deaths caused by rising temperatures are projected to occur in low- and middle-income countries—with 10 times more people set to die in poor countries each year than in rich countries by 2050.
“What we're finding here is that the burden is highly unequal,” says Tamma Carleton, assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley and faculty head of research for the Climate Impact Lab, a global network of researchers measuring the real-world costs of climate change. “It's not just that those places are hotter, it's also really about the income. A lot of what we're finding here is the important role of economic development and access to the resources to protect ourselves that are making these effects so much larger in poorer parts of the world.”
Extreme heat can worsen preexisting health conditions and cause heatstroke, which can be fatal. The researchers gathered local, county-level data on mortality worldwide and data on extreme temperatures and created a statistical model to analyze the effects of weather events on mortality rates for the last 20 to 40 years. They then combined it with future climate scenarios to estimate what the risk of death linked to heat may look like going forward.
They found that Northern Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia are the regions projected to see the greatest increases in deaths from rising temperatures. However, within those regions, poorer countries will see the most suffering. Despite having a similar climate, Burkina Faso, for example, is expected to experience double the number of deaths from heat compared to the wealthier country of Kuwait by 2050.
Algeria, Pakistan, and Niger are among the 25 countries expected to see the highest increase in temperature-related mortality rates. Pakistan is projected to see a net increase in mortality of 51 deaths per 100,000 people each year by 2050— that’s comparable to the current number of deadly strokes in the country. Meanwhile Niger and Burkina Faso are projected to see mortality rates exceed some of the region’s biggest causes of mortality today, including diarrheal diseases in Burkina Faso and stroke in Niger.
Scientists have long known that climate change will have disproportionate outcomes on poorer nations. With this study, the researchers hope to show specifically which countries are likely to see the highest impact, and what adaptation measures might help. This includes increasing access to air conditioning, creating public cooling centers, and climate-proofing buildings with insulation.
“We've known for a long time…that climate change is going to kill people,” says Carleton. “What we're trying to fill in here is an understanding of where and how many people are going to die from climate change, but also where targeted investments can help save the most lives.”
Economic growth around the world is expected to reduce temperature-related mortality by about 9 deaths per 100,000 people annually, a rate about equal to eliminating suicides globally, as more countries will have the financial resources to implement adaptive measures. Without current projected income growth, the researchers say there would be seven times more deaths from climate change each year.
“As people get richer…those wealthier places are able to insulate themselves from these adverse conditions,” Carleton says. However, wealth isn’t increasing equally around the globe, and work will need to be done to ensure vulnerable regions aren’t left out of climate adaptation because they lack the money to do so.
Carleton hopes that the findings can help direct global climate financing towards the countries that need it most—and serve as a reminder that the future is not yet set in stone. “These are not inevitable deaths,” she says. “This is a projection of what might happen without action.”
English (US) · 