France’s parliament will convene for an extraordinary session of parliament in less than two weeks, with MPs set to vote on the viability of Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government and his package of austerity measures aiming to cut France’s spiralling deficit.
The suggested budget cuts have already proved unpopular among politicians on the left and right, and with the general public.
Protests against the proposed measures – which include abolishing two national holidays – are set to take place on September 10, with organisers calling for a nationwide shutdown.
In mid-July Bayrou defended his budget, saying it was necessary to slash €43.8 billion in spending to counter France’s excessive deficit. "It's the last stop before the cliff, before we are crushed by the debt," he said.
Read moreFrench budget crisis: PM Bayrou floats abolishing two national holidays as part of spending cuts
If Bayrou wins the confidence vote on September 8, he will be one step closer to actioning his budget, despite public opposition.
If he loses, he will have to resign from his post and France will – for the third time in 12 months – find itself without a prime minister or a national budget.
Here are three possible outcomes for the September 8 vote:
1. Bayrou’s government wins the confidence vote
A victory for Bayrou is largely regarded as the least likely outcome, as the prime minister simply doesn’t have the numbers.
Since snap elections in June 2024, France’s parliament has been broadly divided in to three blocks – the left coalition, Macron’s centrists and their right-wing allies, and the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) and its allies.
Pro-government groups have far from the 289 votes needed for absolute majority.
If the National Rally, with its 123 seats, abstained from the vote – as it has in Bayrou’s previous votes of confidence – the prime minister might be able to win over a few smaller groups and squeak a victory, but there is no indication this will happen.
The main opposition parties from the far right to the hard left have all said they will not back the prime minister's plan.
Despite odds stacked against him, Bayrou on Tuesday urged France's political forces to think twice, noting they had 13 days to "say whether they are on the side of chaos or responsibility".
Read moreMacron gives 'full support' to embattled PM Bayrou as confidence vote looms
2: Bayrou’s government loses, Macron finds a new PM
A loss for Bayrou is the most likely scenario, ousting him from his position and leaving Macron seeking his seventh prime minister.
While centre-right Bayrou has so-far lasted nearly nine months as prime mnister, his predecessor, the Republican party’s Michel Barnier, was toppled after just three months when trying to get his budget plan through parliament.
So, who might now take on the seemingly impossible job?
Macron could this time opt to pick a figure from the left or right in an effort to consolidate his centrist alliance, but either one would be in a precarious position amid the political deadlock in parliament – and there are few obvious contenders.
“When Bayrou replaced Barnier, there weren't that many candidates,” said Paul Smith, head of the department of Modern Languages at the University of Nottingham, UK. “The big question now is, who would be able to find the middle way that would not immediately provoke the anger of [far-right leader Marine] Le Pen?”
In December, right-wing Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu and former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve were touted as prospective candidates.
Most likely is that “the current cycle will continue’, said Andrew W M Smith, historian of modern France at Queen Mary University, London. “I think we're headed for another cobbled together government with, notionally, centrists who will try to put together a patchwork of measures.”
The potential for political stalemate threatens to cast a heavy shadow over the remaining two years of Macron’s mandate. The president has insisted that he will stay on until the end of his term in 2027 despite mounting calls for him to resign.
Hard-left firebrand and outspoken Macron critic Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Tuesday reiterated calls for the president to step down.
"Macron is chaos," the head of the hard-left La France insoumise (France Unbowed) party said, adding he intended to trigger an article that would allow parliament to impeach the president. "He must go."
3: Bayrou’s government loses, Macron calls new elections
Now that 12 months have passed since the last parliamentary election, there is the possibility that, if Bayrou loses the vote and his government is ousted, Macron could call a new public vote.
Doing so could break deadlock caused by no party having a strong parliamentary majority – but there is no guarantee a vote would go in Macron’s favour, and the president has said he is against the idea.
Le Pen, meanwhile, supports a new snap election, likely because her party stands to benefit.
“If there was another dissolution, I think popular anger would, in reality, push people towards voting for the far right and the far left,” said Andrew W M Smith. “We would likely see a hollowing out of the centre that would replace crisis with crisis.”
"If legislative elections are held in the coming months, it is likely that the National Rally will double the number of its deputies,” Stéphane Vernay, deputy editor-in-chief of Ouest-France, told FRANCE 24.
Polls indicate there is public support for a new vote – 63% of French people want the parliament to be dissolved to make way for new elections, according to an Ifop survey for LCI TV released Wednesday.
Two thirds of people surveyed in two of three polls also wanted Macron to resign.
The National Rally got the most backing to lead the next government in one poll, but not enough to gain a majority.
And without any party in a position to do so, “the National Assembly will remain divided between three major, irreconcilable blocs”, Vernay said.
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