The future of Poland's pro-EU government is riding on the country's presidential elections, which come at a fraught moment for Europe, analysts said ahead of the first round of voting on Sunday.
The electoral campaign in the European Union and NATO member largely revolved around foreign policy, showcasing a clash of philosophies over Poland's engagement with the EU and the United States.
"It was a kind of identity campaign," said Marcin Zaborowski, a fellow at think tank Globsec.
"There was Ukraine, the attitude towards the European Union, towards migration, towards the United States," he told AFP.
The job of Polish president is sometimes dismissed as a ceremonial post, but it comes with some real power.
And that has often stymied Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief whose centrist Civic Coalition (KO) has clashed on multiple fronts with conservative President Andrzej Duda since coming to power in 2023.
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Tusk's KO is supporting pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski for president.
Duda, who cannot run again, is allied with Trzaskowski's top rival for the Belweder presidential palace, nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the main opposition Law and Justice party (PiS).
Thirteen candidates of all stripes are vying to be the next president of the Central European country of 38 million people.
Trzaskowski is the frontrunner, with 33 percent of the vote in the latest opinion polls, compared with 26 percent for Nawrocki.
With neither on track to win more than 50 percent, they will likely meet again in a runoff on June 1.
The role of kingmaker could go to Slawomir Mentzen, the far-right Confederation party candidate, who is polling in third with 11 percent.
The three candidates of the fragmented left have no more than 11 percent together.
'Paralysed' government?
The governing coalition is hopeful a victory by Trzaskowski, 53, would enable it to fulfil its hitherto undelivered campaign pledges.
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Tusk's administration has been blocked from easing Poland's stringent abortion laws and introducing other changes by the head of state's veto power.
That difficult cohabitation would only be reinforced if Nawrocki, 42, becomes president.
Unleashing the Tusk government's power is the "main issue" in the election, said expert Zaborowski.
Poland's president has limited powers, but is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, steers foreign policy and can introduce and veto legislation.
Unfulfilled pledges – or ones carried out only partially or later than hoped for – have left some voters disappointed in the government.
"With Nawrocki as president, the government would be paralysed, and that could eventually lead to the fall of the ruling coalition," said political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska of the University of Warsaw.
His victory could mean "the return of the populists with renewed force in two years" at the next general election, she told AFP.
'You will win'
The stakes are high for Europe.
Under Tusk, Poland has grown more important on the continent and reinforced its position as a key voice on NATO's eastern flank against Russian aggression.
Materska-Sosnowska said the ballot is fundamental for "attempts to stop the anti-democratic, populist trend running through Europe".
The vote is also crucial for security, said Wojciech Przybylski, head of the Res Publica foundation.
Depending on the outcome of Romania's presidential election, Poland risks becoming the only large country "with strategic security importance (on NATO's eastern flank) capable of deterring Russian aggression", Przybylski said.
He said Nawrocki's politics "are clearly linked to the mindset and approach of (US President) Donald Trump", whose country the candidate touts as the sole guarantor of security.
Tusk's government meanwhile "is beginning to operate in a new paradigm where security is not uniquely based on transatlantic ties", Przybylski told AFP.
Last week, Tusk signed a treaty with France, committing both sides to mutual assistance in case of an attack by an aggressor.
Nawrocki admires Trump, whom he met at the White House this month. The Pole claimed Trump told him: "You will win."
Some lawmakers from the governing coalition have accused Trump of election interference.
Days before the vote, Nawrocki received an endorsement from Romania's far-right presidential candidate George Simion, who faces a run-off on Sunday.
The two Trump fans vowed to work together.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
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