Poland's presidential election looked to be on a knife edge on Sunday, after Rafal Trzaskowski from Poland's ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO) was seen narrowly ahead in the first round, setting up a close fight over Poland's pro-European path.
Trzaskowski placed first with 30.8% of the vote, ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, who had 29.1%, according to an Ipsos exit poll.
If confirmed, the result would mean that Trzaskowski and bNawrocki will go head-to-head in a runoff vote on June 1 to determine whether Poland sticks to the pro-European path set by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk or moves closer to nationalist admirers of US President Donald Trump.
"We are going for victory. I said that it would be close and it is close," Trzaskowski told supporters. "There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us and we need determination."
Nawrocki also told supporters he was confident of victory in the second round and called on supporters of far-right candidates to get behind him to "save Poland."
Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun scored almost 22% combined, a historically high score.
Braun, who in 2023 used a fire extinguisher to put out Hanukkah candles in the country's parliament, an incident that caused international outrage, won 6.2% of the vote according to the exit poll.
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Presidential veto
In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws. A Trzaskowski victory in the second round would enable Tusk's government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial reforms introduced by PiS that critics say undermined the independence of the courts.
However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 would be set to continue. Until now, PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda has stymied Tusk's efforts.
If the exit poll is confirmed, the other candidates in the first round, including Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050 and Magdalena Biejat from the Left, will be eliminated.
Two updated polls that take into account partial official results will be published later in the evening and early on Monday morning.
Role in Europe
Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland's role as a major player at the heart of European policymaking and work with the government to roll back PiS's judicial changes.
Nawrocki's campaign was rocked by allegations, which he denies, that he deceived an elderly man into selling him a flat in return for a promise of care he did not provide. But Trump showed support by meeting Nawrocki in the White House.
Nawrocki casts the election as a chance to stop Tusk achieving unchecked power and push back against liberal values represented by Trzaskowski, who as Warsaw mayor patronised LGBT marches and took down Christian crosses from public buildings.
Unlike some other eurosceptics in central Europe, Nawrocki supports military aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia. However, he has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Poles weary of an influx of refugees from their neighbour.
He has said Polish citizens should get priority in public services and criticised Kyiv's attitude to exhumations of the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War Two.
(Reuters)
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