François Picard is pleased to welcome Dr. Folahanmi Aina, Political Scientist and Lecturer in the Political Economy of Violence, Conflict and Development at SOAS London. As a researcher of global security and political dynamics, his analysis of Mali’s evolving crisis focuses on the interplay between militarised governance, external partnerships, and the persistence of insurgent violence in the Sahel. According to Dr. Aina, the current trajectory under Colonel Assimi Goïta reflects a strategic overreliance on military solutions to what is fundamentally a multidimensional conflict.
While force has been prioritised as the primary instrument of state response, insufficient attention has been given to the structural drivers of instability, including governance deficits, socio-economic marginalisation, and local grievances. At the same time, shifting geopolitical alignments, particularly the growing but recalibrating role of Russia, reveal the limits of external security guarantees.
Armed groups, especially those linked to transnational jihadist networks, continue to adapt, expand, and entrench themselves across Mali and the wider Sahel. Ultimately, his assessment is that sustainable peace in Mali cannot emerge from military escalation alone. It requires a calibrated strategy that integrates security responses with political dialogue, regional cooperation, and long-term investment in addressing the root causes of conflict.
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