Opinion: Trump And India: New Delhi Has Enough Reason To Be Cautious

The question topmost in the minds of our foreign policy makers and commentators is what to expect from US President Donald Trump's second term as regards our interests. Trump's unpredictability is a source of concern to all countries, whether allies, friends or adversaries. However, our experience of Trump's first term gives us confidence that his second presidency will generally see continuing progress in our ties, the foundations of which have been laid in the last couple of decades during the previous Republican and Democratic presidencies.

This would explain Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's comment that some countries may be nervous about Trump returning to power, but India is not. Some external commentators believe that Trump's re-election has been greeted with enthusiasm in India because they see him as a kindred spirit of Modi, both being right-wing ideological conservatives. This echoes the Modi-bashing narrative promoted in Western progressive, left-wing, human rights, minority rights circles. Modi, no doubt, got along very well personally with Trump, but so he did with Biden, and, before him, with Obama, too. Just as elements of the policies of Biden and Obama were problematic for India, so were aspects of Trump's policies.

Relief, Not Enthusiasm

At policymaking levels and amongst discerning commentators, there is no "enthusiasm" as such. There might be a feeling of some relief that the Trump administration would stay away on some issues on which the Democrats have harangued us. On these issues, there was a degree of political synergy between the opposition in India and Democratic circles, to the point of even inviting US interference in our internal affairs. This would still be the undercurrent in India-US ties as the Democratic ecosystem in the media, academia, think tanks, "progressive" Congressional circles, etc, will remain active. But this will not be part of the government narrative as before.

There is a caveat though. The annual reports on human rights, religious freedoms, etc, issued by the US State Department are mandated by the US Congress, and these will contain the usual salvos against India. One can expect that unlike Blinken, who, unprecedentedly, singled out India twice by name while presenting the reports, his successor is unlikely to do so. But we should keep in mind that Christian Evangelists are amongst those who strongly support Trump and could work as a pressure point within the administration on issues relating to Christian "persecution", the conversion issue and restrictions on NGOs in India.

What The New Appointments Mean For India

There is much interest globally in the appointments that Trump makes to key positions in his administration. India has reason to be satisfied with his nomination of Marc Rubio to the post of Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as the National Security Adviser. Rubio is a strong supporter of more robust defence, space and technology ties with India. He introduced the US-India Defense Cooperation Act in the Senate in July 2024, which aims to bolster cooperation in these areas with India, besides seeking exemption for it from the CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) legislation and restricting US assistance to Pakistan. As a China hawk, he also sees India as a counterbalance to China.

Mike Waltz is the Republican Co-Chair of the India Caucus, which means that he has an understanding of India-related issues, has been receptive to India's concerns, has been an advocate of strong US-India ties, and is well-connected to the Indian diaspora. He believes that the US-India partnership was the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century. One can assume that he will, like Jake Sullivan, continue to lead the iCET (Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies) from the US side, with our National Security Advisor (NSA), Ajit Doval, as his counterpart. This is important. 

Both are China hawks, which means that the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Strategy will continue to be strongly backed by the White House and the State Department. Kurt Campbell, earlier in Biden's White House and later appointed as Deputy Secretary of State in the State Department, was a strong proponent of the Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy. He will most probably leave his post, but both Rubio and Waltz would ensure that this part of the India-US strategic cooperation, which also has the China challenge in view, continues unabated.

Caution Is Foremost

India will be hosting the next Quad summit in 2025, which means that Trump should be coming to India very early in his tenure-a bonus because the bureaucracies in both countries will get galvanised to make the visit substantive in content and give a direction to India-US ties also at the bilateral level.

We need to be cautious though in not being pushed, beyond a certain point, into subscribing to the Trump administration's hawkishness on China. Our ties with Beijing will remain a massive challenge to us strategically, even if there has been some positive movement on the border recently. It amounts to some lessening of tensions but not an end to them, as Chinese policies will remain unpredictable. We will need hedging strategies, for which the Quad and the Indo-Pacific strategy are indispensable. We need to keep in mind our stakes in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as part of maintaining a balance in our foreign policy and retaining some cards to play to preserve our strategic autonomy.

Trump, China And Russia

We will also have to keep in view that there are inherent contradictions in the US policy towards China, and Trump's approach is not free of them. Trump does not want to get involved in wars abroad anymore, which means he will want to use diplomatic and economic tools to deal with China's expansionism and its threat to US global pre-eminence. How much China can and will exploit this contradiction to continue asserting itself in the Western Pacific and beyond, with the economic power at its disposal that gets inevitably translated into political influence, remains to be seen.

Trump's inclination to resolve the Ukraine conflict will potentially ease tensions, benefiting India and the Global South. Whether he succeeds, or, if rebuffed, ups the ante to exert more pressure on Russia, remains to be seen. If a direct dialogue begins with the US and Russia, then the pressure on Modi to act as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine and find some common ground will end. Zelenskyy's latest 'Victory Plan' to establish peace will also become redundant. Trump and his nominees for the State Department, the NSA and the Pentagon are extremely pro-Israel, and this does not bode well for peace in West Asia. Trump's anti-Iran stance is not reassuring either for the region or for India.

Economic Pain Points

On the economic side, we had pressure from Trump during his first term when the US excluded us from the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) and imposed tariffs on our steel and aluminium exports to the US. During his campaign, he has referred to India as a "tariff king" and a 'trade abuser', even as he has spoken very warmly about Modi personally. He has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and 10-20% tariffs on imports from other countries. Many in Indian economic circles believe that we could handle a 10% tariff, in fact, and with much higher import duties on China, we could even benefit in some areas. There is concern that Trump might tighten up on H1B visas, the stronger controls on technology transfers from the US might affect us too, and Trump's determination to push American corporations to invest in the US and create jobs there might alter the discourse on friend-shoring or resilient supply chains, etc.

The nomination of Robert Lighthiser, the US Trade Representative in Trump's first term and someone India found difficult to deal with, to define US trade policy in the president's second term will be problematic all around. He is truly a trade hawk who wants to use US economic power aggressively to protect the country's interests as he perceives them, to the point of wrecking the World Trade Organization (WTO), if he can.

Counting On Modi-Trump Rapport

India has the advantage, even with these difficulties, of a personal rapport between Modi and Trump and political backing prospectively in the State Department and at the level of the National Security Advisor, not to mention in the US Congress, to counter undue trade pressures. Even on the US side, they will have to take the totality of US long-term interests in India to fashion a balanced policy approach.

Finally, we can hope that the approach of the Biden administration on the Nijjar and Pannun affairs will become more discreet rather than one that resorts to unquestioningly supporting Trudeau, talking down at India by demanding satisfaction and accountability, and giving free rein to Pannun to threaten India with terrorism, death threats, etc. Trump has called Trudeau 'weak', 'dishonest' and 'two-faced'. That holds out some hope that Trudeau will become less provocative. One must keep in mind though that as the Pannun case is before courts, information on the proceedings will make news that anti-Indian elements abroad will pick up and which our press will play up.

Interesting times ahead.

(Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, and Deputy Chief Of Mission in Washington.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author