Open Source Report for Friday, May 23, 2025

THE TOP HEADLINES

Friday, May 23, 2025

G7 ministers threaten more sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine

Putin Says Russia Creating Buffer Zone Along Ukrainian Border

France, Saudi Arabia Aim to Disarm Hamas in New Peace Push

Iran warns Israel, US against any attack on its nuclear sites

Russian hackers target Western firms shipping aid to Ukraine, US intelligence says

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Challenges – and Opportunities – of a ‘Golden Dome’ Defense System. President Donald Trump’s proposed $175 billion “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative—inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome—has drawn mixed reactions from security experts. Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld (Ret.), former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the plan “ambitious” and noted the vast geographic and technical challenges in defending the U.S. from hypersonic, cruise, and ballistic missile threats. Bradley Bowman, Senior Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that the U.S. lacks sufficient capability to detect cruise missiles and must avoid overpromising what such a system can deliver. Carlton Haelig, a defense fellow at the Center for a New American Security, stressed that no national missile defense has proven impenetrable and questioned long-term feasibility and funding sustainability. All three emphasized that success would require space-based sensors, directed energy systems, industrial scaling, and multi-year federal investment, with Bowman likening it to a “Manhattan Project” in scale and urgency. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Star Wars returns. President Donald Trump has revived plans for a vast U.S. missile defense system dubbed “Golden Dome,” a satellite-based shield he claims could offer near-total protection against enemy attacks. Announced on Tuesday, Trump’s proposal includes an initial $25 billion in funding within his yet-unapproved tax bill, with full costs estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to exceed $500 billion over 20 years. Experts are skeptical of his two-to-three-year timeline and 100% protection claim—intercepting even a small missile salvo could require tens of thousands of satellites. The system responds to growing threats from hypersonic and orbital missiles by Russia and China, both of which are rapidly advancing counter-space weapons. Tensions in orbit are escalating, with incidents of close satellite approaches and potential jamming. America’s surveillance satellites have mimicked some of the aggressive maneuvers it criticizes others for, underscoring how space has become a frontline in great power competition. The Economist

As Netanyahu connects D.C. embassy killings to mounting hostility over Gaza, Israel condemns Europe for 'antisemitic incitement.’ The shooting of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington has intensified Israeli concerns about rising global antisemitism amid the ongoing Gaza war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the attack, linking it to what he described as a growing climate of anti-Israel hostility, fueled by protests and international criticism of Israel’s military actions. Israel’s Foreign Minister blasted European officials for "toxic antisemitic incitement," blaming them for creating a climate of hostility and citing “libels about genocide, crimes against humanity and murdering babies.” A French government spokesperson denounced anti-semitism but called Israel’s accusatory remarks "completely outrageous and completely unjustified." While the D.C. attack is not expected to shift Israel’s military strategy, officials see it as reinforcing their view that the conflict is part of a broader existential battle. Netanyahu remains committed to defeating Hamas, despite mounting international pressure and the high Palestinian death toll, which now exceeds 53,000 according to Gaza health authorities. Reuters Reuters New York Times CBS News  

U.S. charges Chicago man with murder in shooting of Israeli Embassy employees. 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, a pro-Palestinian advocate and vocal activist, has been charged with two counts of first-degree murder for the fatal shooting of Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday. He also faces federal charges, including the murder of foreign officials and using a firearm during a crime. Prosecutors are treating the killings as both a hate crime and an act of terrorism, according to interim U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro. Rodriguez allegedly admitted to the shooting at the scene and was captured on surveillance video repeatedly firing at the victims, including following one who tried to escape. A 9mm handgun was recovered, and authorities are now searching Rodriguez's electronic devices and online activity. He was apprehended by museum security shortly after the attack and is believed to have acted alone. Axios Wall Street Journal Associated Press BBC   

Trump administration can't yank foreign students' visas, judge says. A federal judge has issued a nationwide injunction preventing the Trump administration from revoking the legal status of foreign students while their lawsuit against the government proceeds. The administration made claims that these students had committed crimes, but Judge Jeffrey S. White noted many had not and criticized the government for targeting students over minor infractions or entrapment cases. He emphasized that due process protections apply to all individuals in the U.S., regardless of immigration status. While the Department of Homeland Security criticized the decision as undermining presidential authority, the judge warned against government efforts to bypass legal regulations. Axios New York Times NBC News 

Haiti appeals for regional gang-fighting support, U.S. demands action from OAS. Haiti's gang violence, fueled by U.S.-sourced weapons, has prompted renewed calls for the Organization of American States (OAS) to take a more active role, as a struggling Kenyan-led, U.N.-backed mission in the country faces severe shortages of personnel and funding. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, criticized the OAS for its inaction and called for a regional solution, even while rolling back funding. Washington cannot “continue shouldering such a significant financial burden," said a U.S. official. OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro admitted the mission needs restructuring. The urgency increased following a brutal gang attack this week in Haiti’s Artibonite region, after men stormed a church and killed 22 people, including an elderly pastor. Gangs control over 85% of Port-au-Prince. Haitian officials have warned that the national police and military are vastly under-resourced and unprepared for urban warfare, appealing to the OAS for more training, equipment, and support. Associated Press Reuters

Trump Team’s ‘Game of Thrones’ on Venezuela Whiplashes Chevron. The Trump administration's Venezuela policy has sparked turmoil following a dramatic reversal over Chevron’s sanctions waiver. A senior official initially said the waiver would be extended to allow Chevron to continue operating in Venezuela, a development tied to a deal for the release of a U.S. Air Force veteran. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly contradicted the decision, reflecting deep internal divisions between hardliners like Rubio and more pragmatic figures such as Special Envoy Richard Grenell. The flip-flop has left investors and observers confused, as competing factions within the administration vie for influence. Rubio, backed by key Florida lawmakers, opposes easing sanctions, while Grenell argues that cooperation with Caracas could benefit U.S. interests, particularly on migration. President Trump has sent mixed signals, approved the deal but aligning publicly with Rubio. The clash underscores broader tensions over foreign policy, political leverage, and internal rivalries. Bloomberg

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

G7 ministers threaten more sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. At a three-day summit in Banff, Canada, that concluded on Thursday, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors reaffirmed their support for Ukraine and threatened increased sanctions on Russia if no progress is made toward a ceasefire. The ministers pledged to keep Russian assets frozen and to encourage private sector investment in Ukraine. However, the summit made little headway on responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have heightened global economic tensions. Trump’s recent call with Vladimir Putin fueled concerns that the U.S. may scale back its support for Ukraine. European Union economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis called trade talks “difficult” and expressed disappointment over the lack of stronger language on cooperation. Despite this, Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne described the summit as a demonstration of unity at a critical time. Financial Times  New York Times 

EU Lawmakers Increase Pressure By Targeting Fertilizers From Russia And Belarus. The European Parliament voted 411-100 on Thursday to impose steep duties on Russian and Belarusian nitrogen fertilizer imports, aiming to make them economically non-viable by 2028. The phased tariffs—starting at €40–45 per ton in 2025 and rising to €430 by 2028—are part of the EU’s 17th sanctions package in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Fertilizers are a key dependency the EU now seeks to sever. The bloc also raised tariffs on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products by 50%. The Kremlin dismissed the move, claiming it would hurt EU states more than Russia. The EU plans to diversify fertilizer sources, turning to countries like Algeria and Morocco. Meanwhile, the U.S. has suspended fertilizer tariffs on EU imports to assist. RFE/RL

Analysts say EU membership and seizure of Russia’s money are needed to rebuild Ukraine. As ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine inch forward, experts argue that lasting peace and economic recovery hinge on Ukraine's fast-tracked European Union membership, substantial investment, and the seizure of Russian assets. Ukraine has suffered an estimated $176 billion in infrastructure damage and a 29% GDP loss since Russia’s 2022 invasion, while nearly a fifth of its territory, rich in unexploited minerals, remains occupied. The EU and U.S. have begun investing in Ukraine’s mineral sector, though experts caution that such projects take years to yield returns. Ukraine’s wartime economic successes include rebuilding grain exports and launching a $20 billion defense sector, aided by state-backed insurance and international support. Yet, analysts insist that broader public insurance schemes and the seizure of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets are necessary for a sustainable recovery. Al Jazeera 

Ukraine Rebuilds Its Energy Grid With Lessons From the Frontline. Ukraine is transforming its energy grid under fire, decentralizing and diversifying it to withstand relentless Russian attacks that have caused over $93 billion in energy sector damage. Cities like Kharkiv, once reliant on Soviet-era infrastructure, are now rebuilding with smaller, mobile, and renewable-based solutions like gas cogeneration units, solar panels, and modular boilers. These new systems keep critical services running, even amid missile strikes. Nationwide, 504 energy restoration projects totaling $5.3 billion are underway, though most remain underfunded. Renewable energy has overtaken coal as Ukraine’s second-largest power source, and officials aim to build a greener, more resilient grid that aligns with European Union accession goals. Private and public sector investments continue, but larger projects will likely wait until peace. Meanwhile, energy workers risk their lives to keep the lights on. Despite the devastation, Ukraine is creating a model for postwar energy resilience and independence. Bloomberg

Russia says it downs at least 159 Ukrainian drones, fires Iskander missile. Russia claimed it shot down 159 Ukrainian drones across several regions on Thursday, including at least 20 targeting Moscow, prompting intermittent airport closures. Moscow’s mayor said 17 drones were intercepted near the capital alone. Russia also launched an Iskander-M missile strike on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, allegedly destroying U.S.-supplied Patriot missile systems. Ukraine reported damage but did not confirm the weapons used. Meanwhile, Russia said its forces had captured Nova Poltavka in Donetsk, though Ukraine did not confirm the loss. Despite international pressure for peace, including from U.S. President Donald Trump, intense fighting continues with no ceasefire in sight. Reuters New York Times

Former Ukrainian commander says Ukraine cannot restore post-Soviet borders. Former Ukrainian military chief Valery Zaluzhnyi, now ambassador to the UK, said Ukraine should abandon hopes of restoring its 1991 or 2022 borders, according to remarks quoted by RBK Ukraine on Thursday. Speaking at a Kyiv forum, he emphasized that Russia retains enough resources to continue its offensive and that Ukraine’s path forward lies in waging a high-tech war of survival, leveraging limited economic means. Zaluzhnyi, dismissed in 2024 amid tensions with President Volodymyr Zelensky, remains highly popular among Ukrainians. As Western support shifts toward ceasefire negotiations, Ukraine is open to talks but demands a 30-day ceasefire first. Meanwhile, the European Union imposed new sanctions on Russia, and President Vladimir Putin said Russia is preparing a draft memorandum outlining ceasefire principles and timelines. Public messaging from Kyiv has grown more moderate, signaling a potential shift away from reclaiming all territory lost since 2014. Reuters 

Russia Douses Trump’s Desire for Pope to Host Ukraine Talks. The Vatican’s offer to host Ukraine-Russia peace talks, endorsed by President Trump and several European leaders, faces hurdles, with the Kremlin showing little interest. Trump suggested Pope Leo XIV host negotiations after Monday’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to yield a breakthrough. However, Russia prefers continuing technical-level talks in Istanbul, citing distrust of the Vatican, tensions with the Roman Catholic Church, and Italy’s obligation to arrest Putin under an International Criminal Court warrant. The Russian Orthodox Church opposes Vatican involvement, viewing it as a rival and biased actor. Italy, Germany, and the U.S. back the Pope’s engagement as a credible diplomatic move. However, Russia’s hardline demands—such as Ukrainian surrender of contested territories—suggest negotiations will remain stalled. The Vatican has a history of mediating international conflicts, but a deal involving Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains distant. Bloomberg

Putin Says Russia Creating Buffer Zone Along Ukrainian Border. On Thursday, during a televised meeting with government officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has begun creating a buffer zone along its border with Ukraine to protect regions like Kursk and Belgorod from Ukrainian strikes. “Our armed forces are now carrying out this task — the work is underway,” Putin said. The move follows Russia’s recapture of the Kursk region in late April, aided by North Korean troops. Putin previously met with military commanders in the region in March and visited troops earlier this week. Bloomberg CNN 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Update for Thursday, May 22. Russian President Vladimir Putin is advancing an informal state ideology rooted in nationalism and opposition to the West, using cultural and military narratives to unify society and justify future conflict. Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin called for enshrining this ideology in the constitution. Russian officials are reviving claims that the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union was illegal. The Kremlin continues to delegitimize Ukraine's leadership and negotiating authority. CNN reported evidence suggesting Russian forces executed Ukrainian POWs in November 2024 under orders from senior commanders. Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev was officially appointed as the Russian Ground Forces Commander, likely to promote attritional warfare tactics across the front.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian troops advanced near Toretsk, while Russian forces gained ground near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

US Wants Clear NATO Plan to Boost Defense Budgets, Whitaker Says. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told Bloomberg Television on Thursday that the alliance must lay out “clear stair steps” to meet a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP, emphasizing that spending should focus on “hard defense capabilities.” Whitaker stressed that this needs to go beyond the 2014 Wales summit’s 2% commitment, especially under pressure from President Donald Trump, who warned that he may skip the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague without a formal agreement. NATO leaders are expected to approve a plan allocating 3.5% of GDP to core defense and 1.5% to defense-related areas by 2032. Bloomberg

Russia cuts key projects in aviation, tech, auto industries as oil revenues decline. Russia is enacting budget cuts across major industrial sectors in response to collapsing oil revenues, with oil prices recently falling below $50 per barrel, about 40% under the level forecast in its national budget. According to a Thursday report by pro-Kremlin outlet Kommersant, the Kremlin is slashing state funding for aviation, automotive, high-tech, shipping, and robotics programs. These reductions reflect the mounting strain on Russia’s economy from lower fossil fuel income, Western sanctions, and rising military spending. Oil and gas revenues—critical to financing the war in Ukraine—accounted for nearly 30% of Russia’s budget in early 2025, according to Bloomberg. Kyiv Independent

Monument to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin in Moscow metro stirs debate. A newly unveiled monument to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin in Moscow’s Taganskaya metro station has sparked sharp debate. The life-size sculpture, a replica of a 1950 original, was presented as part of the metro system’s 90th anniversary celebrations. Supporters say it honors Stalin’s leadership during World War II and industrialization, with some praising his achievements despite acknowledging his controversial legacy. Critics, including the liberal Yabloko party, condemn the monument as a glorification of a tyrant responsible for mass repression and executions during the Great Terror. Historian Alexander Zinoviev noted the parallels between Stalin-era ideology and Russia’s current political climate, including self-isolation and demands for loyalty to leadership. The monument reflects growing tensions in Russian society over how Stalin's legacy should be remembered. Reuters

Merz backs Nord Stream ban to prevent the US and Russia from restarting the gas link. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is backing a proposed European Union ban on the Nord Stream gas pipelines to prevent any efforts by Russia or the U.S. to revive them. The move is part of a broader EU sanctions package targeting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Merz, seeking to avoid reigniting domestic debate over Russian gas, supports adding Nord Stream 2 AG and related firms to the sanctions list. The pipelines, damaged in 2022, once symbolized deep Russia-Germany energy ties. While some in Merz’s coalition and business leaders favor reopening the link amid high energy costs, the chancellor aims to align Germany with EU consensus and block potential reactivation through a unified European front. Financial Times 

Germany set to defend NATO neighbors with new brigade in Lithuania. Germany formally established a permanent brigade in Lithuania on Thursday to bolster NATO’s eastern flank amid ongoing threats from Russia. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking in Vilnius, vowed Germany would defend every inch of NATO territory, stating, “Protecting Vilnius is protecting Berlin.” The brigade, headquartered in Rudninkai near Vilnius, will consist of 4,800 troops and 2,000 vehicles by 2027. The move reflects both a response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump for greater European defense investment. Merz pledged to modernize the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional force. Lithuania, viewed as highly vulnerable due to its proximity to Russia and Belarus, will increase defense spending to over 5% of GDP to support the brigade’s infrastructure, including a €1 billion base. Germany’s defense spending has risen to 2.12% of GDP in 2024, up from 1.19% in 2014. NATO has considered the Baltic region especially at risk due to its geographic isolation. Reuters Associated Press France 24   

German firm shipped restricted tech to Russia after EU sanctions kicked in. A POLITICO investigation found that German tech firm Kontron exported over €3.5 million in restricted telecom equipment to its Russian subsidiary via Slovenia after EU sanctions took effect in June 2023. The shipments, including dual-use surveillance tech like the SI3000, were defended by Kontron as pre-approved under Slovenian licenses. Critics argue this violates EU rules banning such exports regardless of contract timing. Kontron retains control of the sanctioned Russian entity, Iskra Technologies, and also shipped similar tech to Kazakhstan. Lawmakers and experts called for stricter enforcement, warning that the loopholes undermine sanctions and aid Russia’s war effort. Politico EU  

UK to Pay Mauritius £101 Million a Year to Use Military Base. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed a deal on Thursday to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius while retaining control of the key Diego Garcia military base. Under the agreement, the UK will pay Mauritius £101 million ($135 million) annually. Diego Garcia is strategically vital for UK-US operations across the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. The deal ends a legal and diplomatic dispute following a 2019 International Court of Justice ruling against UK control. Though celebrated by Mauritius as a decolonization milestone, the deal sparked domestic criticism and a last-minute court challenge from Chagossians, which was dismissed. Bloomberg Reuters 

Macron talks tariffs and peace with Xi Jinping. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday to address rising trade tensions and discuss international conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Macron urged Xi not to impose tariffs on French Cognac, which is currently under Chinese investigation, and called for greater market access for French firms. The Cognac probe is widely viewed as retaliation for France's support of EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Macron emphasized the need for a “level playing field” in trade and pledged to collaborate with China to achieve an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” in Ukraine and support a two-state solution for the Middle East. Politico EU  

Furious Macron dressed down ministers after botched leak of Muslim Brotherhood report. French President Emmanuel Macron lashed out at ministers during a defense cabinet meeting on Wednesday over the mishandled leak of a sensitive report on the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence in France. The report, which accused the group of advancing a fundamentalist agenda, was leaked to conservative media before its official release. Macron reportedly targeted Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, a rising political star who had openly discussed the report in interviews. The outburst reflects growing tensions within Macron’s minority government, as attention shifts toward the 2027 presidential election. Retailleau is seen as a potential contender, while Macron’s coalition faces mounting instability. Politico EU 

EU Nations Mull Options to Rein in Separatist Leader in Bosnia. France and Germany have proposed sanctions to isolate Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, whose push for greater autonomy and possible independence for Republika Srpska has triggered a political crisis. A leaked letter outlines measures including travel bans, suspension of European Union-funded projects, and pressure from international financial institutions. The EU, concerned about regional instability and Dodik’s ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, sees his actions as the most serious challenge to Bosnia’s sovereignty since the 1995 Dayton Accords. Dodik faces criminal charges in Sarajevo but remains defiant, recently attending a Moscow military parade at Putin’s invitation.  Bloomberg 

A Yemeni man accused of joining the Houthi rebels has been arrested in Germany. German authorities on Thursday arrested a Yemeni man, identified as Hussein H., in Dachau near Munich, on suspicion of joining the Houthi rebel group. Prosecutors allege that he became a member of the group in October 2022, received ideological and military training, and briefly fought in Yemen’s Marib region in early 2023. He is accused of being part of a foreign terrorist organization during his youth. A judge has ordered him held in custody pending possible indictment. The Houthis, backed by Iran, have recently targeted Israel and Red Sea shipping in response to Israel’s war with Hamas. Associated Press 

THE MIDDLE EAST

France, Saudi Arabia Aim to Disarm Hamas in New Peace Push. France and Saudi Arabia are advancing a joint diplomatic initiative to disarm Hamas and transform it into a political entity that could participate in future Palestinian governance. The plan, part of preparations for a June United Nations conference in New York, aims to balance Hamas's political inclusion with complete demilitarization. Israel strongly opposes this, demanding Hamas’s complete exclusion post-war and the return of all hostages. French Israeli tensions have grown, with President Emmanuel Macron calling Israel’s Gaza policies “shameful.” Meanwhile, protests in Gaza show growing Palestinian discontent with Hamas rule. Saudi Arabia is in direct contact with Hamas, while France has not confirmed similar outreach. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists Gaza must be free of weapons and governed without Hamas, floating President Donald Trump ideas like voluntary Gazan migration. Analysts say that while the Franco-Saudi plan might sway some countries, only U.S. pressure, potentially from Trump, could move Israel toward accepting Palestinian statehood. Bloomberg

Israeli Airstrike That Killed Top Hamas Leader in Gaza Hit Meeting of Top Militants. An Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis this month killed Mohammed Sinwar, Hamas’s Gaza chief and brother of Yahya Sinwar, during a secret meeting of top militants discussing cease-fire talks. The strike also killed Rafah brigade commander Mohammad Shabana and several others, dealing a major blow to Hamas’s leadership. Sinwar, known as “Shadow” for his secretive nature, was a key figure in Hamas’s revival efforts after Yahya’s death. His burial in a tunnel confirmed Israeli claims, though Hamas has yet to publicly acknowledge his death. The group is now facing a leadership vacuum as it contends with renewed Israeli offensives and internal discontent from war-weary Gazans. Among possible successors is Izz al-Din Haddad, Hamas’s northern Gaza military chief. The precision of the Israeli strike underscored its intelligence capabilities. The deaths of the Sinwars may shift power back to Hamas’s exiled leadership in Doha, which had been sidelined under the brothers’ centralized control. Wall Street Journal

Iran warns Israel, US against any attack on its nuclear sites. Iran warned on Thursday that it would hold the United States legally responsible for any Israeli strike on its nuclear sites, following a CNN report suggesting Israel may be preparing such an attack. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran would view the U.S. as a “participant” in any assault and vowed a decisive response. The warning comes ahead of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Friday in Rome, which remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment. Araqchi rejected demands to halt enrichment entirely, calling them “excessive,” and suggested Iran may adopt “special measures” to safeguard nuclear material. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also threatened a “devastating” response if attacked. Reuters The Guardian Associated Press 

Iran threatens to move nuclear material to secret sites to thwart Israeli strike. Iran has threatened to move its nuclear material to undisclosed locations to protect it from a possible Israeli strike, raising fears of a major escalation in the nuclear standoff. In a letter to the UN and IAEA, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that persistent Israeli threats may force Iran to take measures that could hinder international monitoring of its enriched uranium. Undeclared sites would make it much more difficult to ascertain whether or not the Islamic Republic Iran is moving forward with plans to achieve a nuclear weapon. Axios

Iran has several major nuclear program sites, now the subject of negotiations with the US. Iran's nuclear program spans multiple major sites across the country, each playing a distinct role. The Natanz facility, Tehran’s primary uranium enrichment site, is partly underground and has faced repeated acts of sabotage, including the Stuxnet cyberattack. Iran is also expanding underground facilities nearby. The Fordo site, smaller but heavily fortified beneath a mountain, was revealed in 2009, and also houses enrichment centrifuges. The Bushehr power plant, Iran’s only commercial nuclear reactor, was completed with Russian help and uses Russian fuel under UN supervision. The Arak heavy water reactor, capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium, was restructured under the 2015 nuclear deal to limit proliferation risks. Isfahan’s center supports research and houses Chinese reactors, while the Tehran Research Reactor, gifted by the U.S. in 1967, now uses low-enriched uranium. Together, these sites reflect Iran’s broad and advanced nuclear capabilities, which remain central to ongoing negotiations and regional tensions. Associated Press 

Israel intercepts two missiles launched from Yemen, military says. The Israeli military said it intercepted two missiles launched from Yemen on Thursday, triggering air raid sirens across the country, including in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank. The Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility, saying they targeted Ben Gurion Airport with a ballistic missile and sent drones toward Tel Aviv. Despite agreeing to a ceasefire with the U.S. to halt attacks on American ships in the Red Sea, the Houthis vowed to continue targeting Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza. In response, Israel has carried out retaliatory strikes in Yemen, including attacks on Sanaa’s airport and Red Sea ports. Reuters

Aid Deliveries Begin to Reach Gazans After Days of Delay. After a two-month Israeli blockade, approximately 90 truckloads of aid have finally entered Gaza, marking the first major delivery of food and supplies amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. The U.N. confirmed that deliveries are reaching warehouses, but aid officials say the amount is insufficient. The blockade, which Israel said was aimed at pressuring Hamas, caused widespread hunger and shut down local bakeries. While Israel demanded tighter controls and a new distribution system, U.N. agencies resisted, citing concerns over neutrality and safety. Aid routes remain dangerous, and overcrowding near distribution sites raises security concerns. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated plans to escalate military action unless Hamas accepts ceasefire terms and aims to place all of Gaza under Israeli security control. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks damaged Al-Awda Hospital in northern Gaza, destroying medical supplies and halting operations. The situation remains dire, with international pressure mounting for sustained aid access. New York Times

Palestinian paramedic who survived deadly Israeli attack on aid workers will help win justice, says aid chief. Palestinian Red Crescent paramedic Assad Al-Nassasrah, who survived a deadly shooting in Gaza on March 23 that killed 15 aid workers, and was detained until April 29, will be integral in pursuing justice through international courts and the U.N. Al-Nassasrah reportedly survived by pleading for his life in Hebrew, telling Israeli soldiers his mother was an Israeli citizen. Red Crescent President Younis Al-Khatib said Al-Nassasrah could be key to challenging Israeli accounts of the incident. Israel initially claimed its troops had targeted militants who were using Red Crescent vehicles “suspiciously,” but video evidence revealed that the ambulances were clearly marked, and medics were uniformed. A subsequent Israeli military review cited "professional failures" and led to the dismissal of a field commander. A criminal investigation is ongoing. The Red Crescent asserts that the aid workers, eight of which were Red Crescent staff, were deliberately targeted. The international community should “provide justice to those killed," said Al-Khatib. "We don't train our people to go and die." Reuters 

US and regional countries team up to resolve the issue of IS prisoners in Syria. The U.S., Turkey, Syria, and Iraq have formed a working group to address the fate of thousands of Islamic State (IS) prisoners held in northeast Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on May 22. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently oversee these camps, including Al-Hol, which houses many women and children linked to IS. Erdogan stressed that most detainees are Syrian and Iraqi nationals and called on both governments to take responsibility. The move follows a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, during which Trump urged Damascus to assume control of the estimated 9,000 prisoners. It’s expected that Syria will eventually take over the camps, potentially easing integration of Kurdish forces, especially as the PKK recently agreed to disband. Separately, Ankara will triple its natural gas exports to Syria, aiming to supply cities like Aleppo and Homs with electricity. Turkish officials also pledged support for Syria’s energy development and post-war reconstruction Associated Press 

ASIA & OCEANIA

U.S. Considers Withdrawing Thousands of Troops from South Korea. The Trump administration is considering withdrawing approximately 4,500 U.S. troops from South Korea, potentially relocating them to Guam or elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, as part of an informal policy review on North Korea. Though the proposal hasn't reached President Trump's desk, it has raised concern among allies who view the U.S. military presence in South Korea as crucial to regional stability and deterrence against North Korea and China. Since his first term, Trump has considered changing the U.S. footprint in South Korea, where there are about 28,500 troops. Senior U.S. commanders, including Gen. Xavier Brunson and Adm. Samuel Paparo, warned that a drawdown would weaken U.S. readiness and deterrence. Officials like Elbridge Colby, , the undersecretary of defense for policy, support shifting more defense responsibility to South Korea to free up U.S. forces to counter China. Despite these internal debates, a final decision may hinge on broader geopolitical developments, including the war in Ukraine and evolving U.S. global military commitments. Wall Street Journal

Guam Defense System Facing Delays, Planning Problems, GAO Says. The Pentagon's efforts to establish a missile defense system in Guam are facing delays due to organizational shortcomings, according to a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The GAO warns that the lack of a clear strategy for transitioning control from the Missile Defense Agency to military services, as well as undefined staffing plans and deployment schedules, threatens the project's timeline. While the technical development is progressing — with a successful missile intercept in December — the report highlights concern about insufficient planning for Army involvement and infrastructure. The system, intended to provide 360-degree protection against various missile threats, is scheduled for phased deployment from 2027 to 2032 across 16 sites on the island. The GAO urges the Pentagon to establish a detailed operational transfer plan, define Army roles, and clarify personnel needs to avoid further delays. The Defense Department has agreed with these recommendations. Bloomberg 

In Trump Era, Taiwan Defense Chief Says U.S. Still Is a Check on China. In a wide-ranging interview, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo expressed confidence that the U.S.—even under the Trump administration—remains a key deterrent against Chinese aggression. While acknowledging President Trump's pressure for Taiwan to boost defense spending and his critical rhetoric, Koo said both countries share an interest in Indo-Pacific security. Koo assessed the threat level from China as elevated but not imminent. Taiwan plans to increase defense spending above 3% of GDP but faces delays in receiving U.S. weapons due to industrial bottlenecks. Critics argue Taiwan’s modernization is too slow. Koo highlighted efforts to shift from outdated training to realistic drills and innovation. New York Times

Taiwan’s Military Plans New Drone Units in Preparation for Potential China Invasion. Taiwan is ramping up its military modernization by establishing its first army drone units and introducing sea drones into its navy, as part of a broader shift toward asymmetric warfare aimed at deterring a potential Chinese invasion. Defense Minister Wellington Koo emphasized the goal of making China reconsider any aggressive moves by raising the cost of military action. Inspired by Ukraine’s success with drone warfare, Taiwan plans to acquire over 3,200 domestically produced drones over five years, aiming to reduce dependence on Chinese-made components. The U.S. is supporting this shift by encouraging local production and sharing relevant technologies. Taiwan is also adding units to operate U.S.-made HIMARS rocket systems to boost precision-strike capability. President Lai Ching-te has maintained a more diplomatic tone recently, calling for peace while continuing to reinforce Taiwan's defenses. Analysts see these efforts as essential for offsetting China’s superior military strength through agility, innovation, and international support. Wall Street Journal

Taiwan Struggles to Build a Drone Defense Without Its Tech Giants. Taiwan is urgently building up its drone defense capabilities amid rising tensions with China, but its efforts are constrained by limited industry scale and a lack of participation from major tech firms like TSMC and Foxconn. With only about 1,000 military drones currently reserved, Taiwan lags far behind China’s vast arsenal and is relying on startups such as Coretronic to close the gap. The government aims to produce 180,000 civilian drones annually by 2028 and convert them into combat drones if war breaks out. Defense officials emphasize drones' strategic importance, especially given Taiwan’s declining birthrate and the growing prominence of unmanned systems in modern warfare, as seen in Ukraine. The military is establishing drone units and replacing some traditional systems with UAVs. However, Taiwanese drone manufacturers face high costs and limited access to domestic chipmaking resources, which hampers growth. Experts warn Taiwan must accelerate efforts significantly to deter or withstand a potential Chinese invasion. Bloomberg

 Guess who India, Pakistan and Iran are all wooing? The Taliban. Despite lacking formal recognition, the Taliban has intensified diplomatic outreach in recent weeks, with acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi meeting officials from Pakistan, India, Iran, and China. This flurry of engagement reflects regional powers' pragmatic shift toward dealing with the Taliban as the de facto authority in Afghanistan. India, which long opposed the Taliban, now sees engagement as necessary to maintain regional influence and counter Pakistan. Pakistan, once a key backer, now faces strained ties due to cross-border militant activity and refugee tensions, prompting tactical diplomacy. Iran seeks cooperation on border security, trade, and ISIS containment despite historic hostility. All three nations are managing complex interests, ranging from counterterrorism and border stability to economic ties, without offering formal recognition. These engagements underscore the Taliban’s growing diplomatic relevance and the region’s evolving strategic calculations. Analysts view the overtures as driven more by security and economic pragmatism than ideological alignment or formal diplomatic endorsement. Al Jazeera

Manila says Chinese coast guard sprayed water cannon on Philippine research vessel.  Manila blasted the Chinese coast guard on Thursday for reportedly using a water cannon to fire at one of two Philippine fishing vessels that were carrying out marine research by collecting sand samples in the South China Sea, a region that has transformed into a hotspot for tensions and territorial disputes. According to the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources in Manila, the incident occurred on Wednesday, close to one of three sandbars called Sandy Cay. One of the fishing boats was damaged, and Philippine officials said the lives of the crew were endangered by China’s “aggressive interference, dangerous maneuvers, and illegal acts.” The Chinese coast guard responded, accusing the Philippine vessel of “dangerously” approaching its ship, causing the collision, and “illegally intruded.” Associated Press Al Jazeera  

Europe-Japan Fighter Jet Races Against China’s Military Progress. Brig. Gen. Edoardo de Santo of the Italian aerospace firm Leonardo SpA has defended the significant investment in the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), a joint UK-Japan-Italy project developing a sixth-generation stealth fighter, as essential for countering future threats, particularly from China. While current weapons can manage immediate risks like potential Russian aggression, de Santo stressed the importance of staying ahead of evolving threats. The GCAP fighter, expected to enter service by 2035, aims to surpass current fifth-generation jets like the F-35 in stealth, targeting, and coordination with drones and other systems. The project is still in its early design phase, with technology development posing major challenges. The UK has committed £14 billion, and additional funding may come from partners like Saudi Arabia. The program could also expand to include new partners and is targeting export markets such as Australia and India. The new jet is set to replace both the UK’s Eurofighter Typhoon and Japan’s F-2 fighters, with potential civilian applications for its advanced technologies. Bloomberg 

How China Factors Into the Conflict Between India and Pakistan. The recent conflict between India and Pakistan in Kashmir has reignited geopolitical tensions in South Asia, with China’s influence carrying great weight despite having no direct involvement. China maintains a strong military and economic alliance with Pakistan, including arms sales and support for defense infrastructure. Unverified Indian reports claim Beijing aided Pakistan with radar, air defense, and satellite capabilities during the clashes. Meanwhile, the Asian giant publicly called for peace and offered to mediate. China and Pakistan share a longstanding "ironclad" alliance rooted in mutual distrust of India, strengthened through arms deals and infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Islamabad recently claimed to have used Chinese J-10C jets and PL-15 missiles in combat—potentially marking the first such use of these weapons. China’s relationship with India remains complex. The two countries have a history of border disputes and continue to compete strategically. However, economic interdependence has driven recent diplomatic thawing. Trade between the two nations reached nearly $140 billion last year, despite lingering restrictions and strategic tensions. Bloomberg 

Modi says Pakistan will not get water from Indian-controlled rivers. Tensions between India and Pakistan, already surging in the wake of recent clashes, escalated further on Thursday when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reasserted that Pakistan would no longer receive water from rivers under India’s control, a move that challenges the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty brokered by the World Bank in 1960. Modi declared that Pakistan must “pay a heavy price” for terrorist attacks. “Pakistan's army will pay it. Pakistan's economy will pay it,” he said. Pakistani Attorney General Mansoor Usman Awan reaffirmed Islamabad’s commitment to the treaty, warning that any unilateral Indian actions would be risky and unlawful. He acknowledged India had raised concerns about the treaty due to its growing population and energy demands, but insisted any revisions must occur within the treaty framework. Both countries have intensified rhetoric and suspended trade and visa services. The dispute marks a new low in the historically fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed nations. Reuters 

Kim Jong Un’s New Warship Capsizes at Launch Due to ‘Absolute Carelessness.’ North Korea’s naval modernization efforts suffered a major setback on Wednesday when a new 5,000-ton destroyer capsized during its launch at a shipyard in Chongjin. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who attended the event, harshly criticized officials for “absolute carelessness” and “unscientific empiricism,” calling the mishap a “criminal act.” The ship, one of Kim’s prized military projects, failed to launch properly, causing its hull to crush and its bow to become stranded. South Korean satellite imagery confirmed the vessel was lying on its side in the water. The destroyer was part of Kim’s broader push to modernize the country’s Soviet-era fleet and develop sea-based military capabilities to complement North Korea’s growing land-based arsenal. Despite severe economic and humanitarian challenges, Kim has prioritized military advances to project strength. Officials involved were reprimanded, and Kim vowed a recovery effort by June, lamenting that the accident “collapsed the state’s dignity.” Wall Street Journal Bloomberg 

AFRICA

Trump's false claims exasperate South Africans. South Africans reacted with frustration and disbelief after President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Wednesday meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump was dominated by Trump’s false claims of a “white genocide” in South Africa. Trump focused almost entirely on alleged violence against white farmers, playing videos and citing articles, despite data disproving such claims. Many South Africans questioned the value of Ramaphosa’s visit, with some saying it was a pointless exercise to defend against widely discredited conspiracy theories. Trade unionist Sobelo Motha called the trip unnecessary, while journalist Rebecca Davis noted Ramaphosa at least avoided being publicly humiliated like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Though Ramaphosa maintained composure, critics felt he gained little. The foreign ministry defended the need for engagement, while others lamented how fringe white victimhood narratives—fueled by far-right groups and embraced by figures like Elon Musk—had shaped the meeting. White South Africans themselves said crime affects all groups, and Trump’s focus was out of context. Reuters

Trump's image of dead 'white farmers' came from Reuters footage in Congo, not South Africa. During Wednesday’s Oval Office meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, U.S. President Donald Trump falsely claimed that a Reuters image showing body bags was evidence of white South Africans being killed. The image, however, was a screenshot from Reuters video footage taken in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, during a February 2025 mass burial after an M23 rebel assault. The footage was filmed by Reuters journalist Djaffar Al Katanty, who said it was shocking to see Trump misrepresent his work. The article Trump cited was from American Thinker, which made no explicit claim about the image’s location. Editor Andrea Widburg acknowledged Trump’s misidentification. Trump cited the image to support a long-debunked conspiracy theory about genocide against white South Africans—a claim South Africa denies. The White House did not comment. Ramaphosa was in Washington to repair U.S.-South Africa relations, strained by Trump’s criticisms of South African land laws and governance. Reuters

U.S. set to slap sanctions on Sudan after revelation that government used chemical weapons. The U.S. has announced that it will impose sanctions on Sudan, set to start around June 6, after determining that the Sudanese government used chemical weapons during its conflict with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in 2024. The sanctions will include restrictions on U.S. exports and credit access. The chemical weapons, reportedly chlorine gas, were used in remote areas on at least two occasions. Chlorine gas can cause severe respiratory pain, tissue damage, and death. Sudan disputes Washington’s claims, suggesting the sanctions are politically motivated an tied to tensions over U.S. congressional scrutiny of the UAE, which Khartoum accuses of aiding the RSF. The UAE has repeatedly denied involvement. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has caused massive humanitarian devastation, with millions displaced and tens of thousands killed. The U.S. has also sanctioned both army and RSF leaders, accusing the paramilitary and allied groups of committing genocide. Reuters CNN Le Monde Al Jazeera 

Cholera spikes in Khartoum after drone attacks cut power, water. Over the past three weeks, more than 2,300 cholera cases and at least 51 deaths have been reported in Sudan, with 90% of cases occurring in Khartoum and nearby areas. The outbreak has been linked to drone attacks, which have disabled power and water infrastructure and severely strained public health services. The ongoing war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), now over two years old, has devastated healthcare systems and fueled the spread of diseases like cholera, malaria, and dengue. The army blames the RSF for attacks on critical infrastructure, while ground fighting continues in the Kordofan and Darfur regions. Reuters 

Burkina Faso’s military leaders turn to ‘Africa’s Che Guevara’ to rally struggling country.Burkina Faso's military rulers are invoking the legacy of Thomas Sankara, the country’s former Marxist leader known as “Africa’s Che Guevara,” to inspire national unity amid a deepening security crisis. A new mausoleum in Ouagadougou honors Sankara’s anti-imperialist and pan-African ideals. Current leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore, who took power in a 2022 coup, has embraced Sankara’s image, adopting revolutionary rhetoric and symbolism. Despite these efforts, Burkina Faso remains highly unstable. Extremist violence has displaced over 2 million people, with much of the country outside government control. Citizens face harsh restrictions, censorship, and violence from both jihadi groups and state forces. While the capital sees celebrations of Sankara’s legacy, much of the country endures insecurity, economic hardship, and fear—highlighting a stark divide in everyday life across the nation. Associated Press 

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Has Starlink already won the new space race? Elon Musk’s Starlink has taken a commanding lead in the new space race, dominating low Earth orbit (LEO) with over 7,300 active satellites and serving 5 million customers in 125 countries. SpaceX’s vertical integration, frequent launches, and consumer-focused pricing have made Starlink the most advanced and expansive satellite broadband network. Amazon’s Project Kuiper, backed by Jeff Bezos, has finally entered the fray with its first operational satellites launched in April 2025, aiming for global service by 2029. Despite Kuiper’s promise—supported by Amazon’s global reach and cloud infrastructure—it faces production delays, new unproven rockets, and a tight Federal Communications Commission deadline. Other competitors like China’s SpaceSail and Guowang, Europe’s IRIS², and Canada’s Telesat are emerging, but all trail far behind Starlink in scale. Analysts expect a looming price war between Musk’s aggressive, less profit-driven approach and Amazon’s more structured business model. The outcome could reshape global connectivity and widen geo-political divides in space infrastructure. Financial Times

OpenAI, UAE to build massive AI center in Abu Dhabi. OpenAI has announced a major partnership with the United Arab Emirates to build Stargate UAE, a massive AI data center in Abu Dhabi. This initiative is part of OpenAI’s broader OpenAI for Countries strategy and marks the UAE as the first nation to secure ChatGPT Plus subscriptions for its entire population. The project includes a one-gigawatt AI computing cluster, with 200 megawatts set to go live in 2026. Backed by the U.S., the deal is part of a $20 billion investment effort led by Emirati AI firm G42 and includes partners like Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco, and SoftBank. For every dollar invested in Abu Dhabi and Stargate UAE, the Gulf state will match it with investment in American AI infrastructure. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman sees the project as a way to democratize AI breakthroughs globally, while U.S. officials view it as a strategic move to counter China’s tech influence. More international partnerships are expected to follow. Axios 

Belgium bugged Anderlecht football stadium to spy on Huawei MEP lobbying. Belgian authorities bugged a luxury box at RSC Anderlecht football stadium used by Huawei to host European Parliament members, as part of a broader corruption probe into the Chinese tech giant’s lobbying in the EU. The surveillance, which also included tapping a Huawei lobbyist’s car, contributed to prosecutors requesting the lifting of immunity for several MEPs. Huawei reportedly used the box, acquired for €50,000, to curry favor with lawmakers through gifts, event invitations, and networking. Authorities are investigating whether these efforts were linked to securing political support, including an open letter signed by eight MEPs expressing support of the firm’s interests. Police have already charged several individuals and raided over 20 locations across Belgium and Portugal. Some MEPs have admitted to attending matches, but denied knowing Huawei was behind the invitations. No MEPs have been charged, but Transparency International and other critics highlight the EU Parliament’s weak ethics rules, noting the blurry line between lobbying and corruption. Huawei has not commented. Politico EU  

Russian hackers target Western firms shipping aid to Ukraine, US intelligence says. Russian military intelligence hackers tied to the notorious group "Fancy Bear" have targeted Western technology and logistics companies involved in shipping aid to Ukraine, according to a new report from the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA). The cyber campaign, which began in 2022, aimed to gather intelligence on the types and movements of assistance entering Ukraine by breaching defense, transportation, and logistics systems across several countries, including the U.S. As part of the operation, the hackers attempted to access over 10,000 internet-connected cameras—both private and public—near key transport hubs and border crossings in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, and other parts of Eastern and Central Europe. The NSA, along with the FBI and allied agencies, warned that Russia is likely to continue such espionage efforts and urged companies managing aid logistics to stay alert. Officials did not reveal how successful the hackers were or how long they operated undetected. Associated Press 

Russian national accused of ransomware attacks indicted by DOJ. The U.S. Department of Justice has unsealed charges against Rustam Rafailevich Gallyamov, a 48-year-old Russian national accused of leading a cybercriminal group behind the Qakbot malware, which infected thousands of computers over more than a decade. Qakbot enabled further malware infections, ransomware attacks, and the creation of botnets. The DOJ also seeks to seize over $24 million in cryptocurrency and funds linked to the operation. Despite a global law enforcement effort that disrupted Qakbot infrastructure in 2023, Gallyamov allegedly continued his activities into 2025. Separately, federal prosecutors charged 16 individuals connected to DanaBot, a malware strain active since 2018 and responsible for over $50 million in damages and 300,000 infections globally. These charges are part of Operation Endgame, a coordinated international effort to dismantle major cybercrime networks. DanaBot, originally designed to steal banking credentials, evolved into a broader tool for information theft and remote access, affecting thousands of victims daily across more than 40 countries. Reuters CNN  The Record U.S. Department of Justice The Hacker News  

Chinese-speaking hackers targeting US municipalities with Cityworks bug. Cybersecurity experts at Cisco Talos say Chinese-speaking hackers have been exploiting a critical vulnerability, CVE-2025-0994, in Trimble Cityworks—a software widely used by U.S. local governments to manage infrastructure assets. The flaw, publicly known since February, is being actively used to infiltrate systems handling utilities, permits, and operations. Cisco Talos confirmed that hackers conducted reconnaissance and deployed web shells and custom malware, some built using Chinese-language tools like MaLoader. The malware’s language and design suggest the attackers are Chinese-speaking, and their tactics indicate a clear focus on utilities management systems. Once inside, the hackers prepared sensitive data for exfiltration. Federal agencies were ordered to patch the vulnerability by February 28, but the attacks appear to have begun in January. Trimble, the software’s developer, acknowledged unauthorized access attempts and worked with CISA and Symantec to issue an advisory. The Record 

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