Oman walks a diplomatic tightrope over Strait of Hormuz fees, creating a ‘blind spot’ for markets

Oman's reputation for neutrality has earned it the nickname the "Switzerland of the Middle East."

But the country, which sits to the south of the Strait of Hormuz, is employing a deliberately opaque diplomatic strategy in discussions about tolls for the critical waterway, and markets have a "blind spot" for what could happen next, analysts tell CNBC.

Oman has served as a key intermediary in regional crises and remains one of the few countries trusted by both Tehran and Washington, which is keen to ensure the flow through the strait resumes after it was blocked during the war, triggering a global energy crunch.

Situated on the southeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, opposite Iran across the strait, Oman has been in joint talks with Iran on a new maritime security order, amid reports that the two countries could push to establish transit fees.

Oman has said that any agreement will comply with international law, although the prospect of a financial system on a waterway that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil has sparked alarm.

Dania Thafer, executive director of Gulf International Forum, a Washington, D.C. think tank, said Oman's position on charging fees or a tolling system was likely intentionally unclear.

"You have a regional power, such as Iran, and then you have a global power, the U.S., putting pressure on Oman," Thafer told CNBC in a phone interview.

"So, they're trying to use a degree of strategic ambiguity to try to stay out of the conflict as much as possible and not undermine these very strong players."

If Gulf nations and important international actors greenlit Oman, Thafer said the country would probably move forward with a kind of fee service system in the Strait of Hormuz.

She added that while it would be seen as a political disappointment for fees or tolls to come into force, markets would "respond accordingly" to conditions that once again allow the safe passage of ships.

A spokesperson for Oman's Foreign Ministry was not available to comment when contacted by CNBC.

The U.S. has staunchly opposed any tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has previously threatened to "aggressively" impose sanctions against Oman if it was seen to help Iran establish a tolling system.

"All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X on May 28.

Under the terms of the U.S. and Iran's memorandum of understanding, signed on June 17, Tehran cannot impose tolls on ships during the 60 days of negotiations to find a permanent settlement.

Iran is, however, fixated on the prospect of winning international recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing two senior Iranian sources. This includes the ability to levy fees on ships entering or leaving the Gulf, the report added.

Andrew Leber, a non-resident scholar in the Carnegie Middle East Program, said Oman's reputation as a mediator "has left it increasingly trapped" between Tehran's demands for some kind of toll in the strait and U.S. demands that this not happen.

"As a result, we've seen Omani diplomats tack back and forth between insisting no toll will be charged, and suggesting that ships might be asked to pay a fee which will be called something other than a toll," Leber told CNBC by email.

The challenge for Oman, Leber said, is that its geography means it has a direct stake in what happens regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The country has security reasons and a financial interest in either going along with Iran's plan or charging some kind of fees, he added, provided Oman also gets a cut.

"It is highly likely that Oman continues to co-sign some kind of Iranian service-fee plan or put a gentler spin on it until that brings it into direct conflict with its Arab neighbors or the United States," Leber said.

Neil Quilliam, an energy policy, geopolitics, and foreign affairs specialist focusing on the Middle East and North Africa at Chatham House, said the combination of geography and diplomacy gives Oman influence over the rules, procedures and future arrangements governing the Strait of Hormuz.

"Markets tend to price disruption risk but pay less attention to governance risk. That creates a blind spot," Quilliam told CNBC by email.

"Changes in how the Strait is managed, even if gradual and negotiated, could alter costs, compliance requirements, and insurance dynamics without a dramatic security event," he added.