NYT-Siena poll indicates Democrats may soon lose Senate control

The upcoming

senate elections

could result in a shift of power from the

Democratic Party

to the

Republican Party

, as senator

Jon Tester

, a Democrat from Montana, is currently trailing his Republican challenger,

Tim Sheehy

, according to a new poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.
Tester, who has served in the senate since 2006, is performing well among moderate and independent voters but is struggling in Montana, a state that leans conservative.

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald J Trump leads by 17 percentage points in Montana.
According to the poll, Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy SEAL with no prior political experience, is leading Tester 52% to 44%. This eight-point lead puts Republicans in a strong position to gain control of the Senate.
Currently, Democrats hold a slim majority in the senate with 51 seats. However, after the retirement of Senator Joe Manchin III, an independent who usually votes with Democrats, their best hope is to secure a 50-50 split and win the White House, allowing Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris's running mate, Tim Walz, to cast a tiebreaking vote.

Several other senate seats held by Democrats are also competitive, including those in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin. A series of recent Times/Siena surveys show Democrats leading, but by narrow margins.
The Democratic Party has limited opportunities to gain Republican-held seats. In Texas, Republican senator Ted Cruz leads Democratic challenger Colin Allred 48% to 44%. In Florida, Republican senator Rick Scott is ahead of Democratic rival Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 49% to 40%.

"In Texas, Mr Trump was ahead by seven points, while Mr Cruz was up by only four points," the poll noted. Similarly, "In Florida, Trump was leading by 13 points, while Scott was ahead by nine points."
In Montana, significant funds are being spent on the Senate race, with over $265 million allocated for television advertising. Republicans are focusing on this race as Montana has become solidly Republican in national politics. Tester has historically managed to win re-election despite the state's conservative leanings.
A substantial portion of likely voters in Montana prefer Republican control of the senate, with 55% supporting it compared to 37% preferring Democratic control. This sentiment extends to independent voters, who also lean towards Republican control.
The poll, conducted from October 5 to 8, included interviews with 656 voters in Montana. The margin of sampling error among likely voters is about plus or minus four percentage points.