No pope is chosen after first day of Vatican conclave

After a cry by an archbishop of “Extra omnes,” or everyone out, the doors of the Sistine Chapel were shut around 5:44 p.m. as the conclave began amid hermetic secrecy. Speculation swirled that the throne of St. Peter could go to a first pontiff from the United States. Just as many voices were heralding the chances of three Italians and a come-from-behind Spaniard serving in Morocco. A Filipino, a Frenchman, a Congolese and a long-monastic Swede are talks of the town, too.

Yet as all eyes await the white smoke signaling Habemus Papam — “We have a pope” — the wisest watchers have a warning. Nobody really knows who will be the next pope, at a time of deep church division.

More than three hours after the conclave began, the smoke appeared. A crowd assembled outside the chapel roared, then started to disperse when it was clear that there was no new pope. Ismael Rivera, 43, a computer engineer from Peru who was visiting with his family, said he knew the selection of a pope was unlikely after a first vote. But “I wanted to be part of it either way,” he said.

The cardinals under the age of 80 — including nearly two dozen from countries that have never had a voice in a conclave before — will be sequestered for votes, released only to retire to their boardinghouse for meals and rest, until a new pope is found. Under the ceiling depicting Michelangelo’s outstretched God creating Adam, there will be no interpreters, no speeches, no lobbying (theoretically). There will be only prayer, chatter and votes.

To keep themselves pure of secular influence — and, in 2025, viral social media posts — the serene prelates will be asked not to bring their cellphones. One of the cardinals who is sick, however, may earn the right to vote from his room.

In the hour or so after white smoke, but before the new pope’s name is announced in Latin from the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, the tea-leaf reading will commence. Had the decision come Wednesday, the choice could have signified the elevation of a familiar cardinal viewed by his peers as a pillar of stability in unsettled times. Or, that a star had somehow electrified the conclave.

Bracing for a marathon

Beginning Thursday, four votes will be held during each full-day session. Popes Francis and Benedict XVI were elected in five and four votes, respectively. Should that pattern be followed again, a decision would come Thursday. If the choice bleeds into a third day — or, shockingly, longer — the narrative of a house divided will begin to take hold. The last time a conclave went five days was more than a century ago, in 1922.

Since Francis’s death, cardinals have laid out conflicting visions for the future of the church, and some have been bracing the faithful for what could be a nail-biter of a marathon. In the largest conclave in history — there are 133 voting members in Vatican City — so many cardinals are new and unfamiliar to their peers that the prelates, who normally meet in pre-conclave morning assemblies, held an extended afternoon session this week. Adding to the challenges, not all of them speak fluent Italian — Vatican City’s lingua franca.

“We hope the new Pope will arrive in three [or] four days,” Chaldean Patriarch Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako told journalists this week.

In an act of high ceremony, most cardinals, singing the Litany of the Saints as they approached the chapel, were wearing red garments with a sash, a rochet vestment, a mozzetta cape and a pectoral cross with red and gold cord, along with a ring, zucchetto skull cap and the biretta peaked hat. The Cardinals of the Eastern Churches wore their own “choir dress,” according to the Vatican.

The news media will find out who the new pope is, along “with the rest of the people of God” — when the birth and papal names of the new pontiff are heralded to a throng in St. Peter’s by a senior cardinal, the Vatican said. When the new pontiff emerges for his address, the scrutiny will begin.

Will he select the simple white robes and black shoes of Francis, or return to the bling-y red slippers and red velvet mozzetta favored by Benedict? Will he address the crowd, as Francis did, by humbly calling himself the “bishop of Rome” and, in lieu of a lofty blessing to the faithful, ask the faithful to pray for him instead?

“Popes are always compared to their predecessors,” said the Rev. Thomas Reese, 80, a veteran Vatican watcher now in Rome, and who was also in the city for the 2005 and 2013 conclaves. “Catholics tend to support whoever is pope,” he added. “But who knows this time in the age of social media.”

It’s long been said that no one from the United States will be pope, based on the argument that the country already enjoys outsize global power. But there have been whispers in recent days about the rising odds for Cardinal Robert Prevost, a Chicago native who has spent most of his career in Peru and Rome, as well as the traditionalist Archbishop of New York, Cardinal Timothy Dolan.

An American? A Spaniard? A monastic Swede?

Prevost is regarded as a pragmatist who was selected by Francis to lead the powerful bishop-picking department at the Vatican, making him extremely well-known among the voting cardinals. Dolan, perhaps the most recognized bishop in the United States, is a St. Louis native who worked in Milwaukee before he went to New York: a gregarious, TV-friendly figure who prayed at President Donald Trump’s 2025 inauguration.

Some experts have noted that with so many new cardinals and in such a big conclave, Dolan’s high profile could help him break through the Vatican’s American taboo.

Several Vatican watchers have been dazzled by Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, a humble Spaniard said to have impressed his peers during his pre-conclave speech and interactions, as Francis did before his election. Romero is the archbishop of Rabat, Morocco.

“I’m fully in tune with everything Francis proposed — his way of acting, speaking, and leading,” López Romero told the news agency of his Salesian religious order last week. “But I don’t say, ‘I belong to Francis,’” he said. “I’m of Christ. I’m of the Gospel. And if I love Francis, it’s because he’s pure Gospel.”

As is customary, no contender is publicly advocating for the job, and most are demurring, saying they don’t want the nod. Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius, a Catholic convert in a Protestant-dominant country who spent decades in monastic life, said he has been mobbed by patriotic Swedes celebrating his chances.

“It’s a bit ridiculous in Sweden that Swedes are so nationalistic,” Arborelius told The Washington Post. Someone the cardinal knows, he said, had asked an AI bot what his chances were. Arborelius said he was relieved when they were in the single digits.

“I was very happy. Because I don’t have this strong leadership — what do you call it? — management type,” he said.

He candidly outlined the struggle among cardinals over the criteria for the next pope. He said cardinals wanted an evangelizer to cope with “many difficult issues” including the “war in Europe” and “Trump in America.” But less clear is whether the faith needed a “prophetic figure” who was “charismatic,” or someone more reflective and transitional, “like Benedict” was between John Paul II and Francis.

The influence and money of Western Catholic conservatives has been on display in the run-up to the conclave. The California-based Napa Institute, which advocates for free-market policies and traditional church teaching on marriage and reproductive issues, wined and dined cardinals in Rome at swank locales with expensive meals and fundraising, according to the National Catholic Reporter.

Japanese Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi addressed the issue this week in Rome when reporters asked whether politics was playing a role in the conclave.

“No, I don’t think so. But maybe money … it’s a very sensitive issue,” he said.

One refrain being echoed, Arborelius said, was concern for migrants — many of whom are Catholic.

“If you take that issue, migration … we know it’s a political issue in many countries, but it’s also kind of biblical,” he said. “The people of Israel, Abraham, migrated. The church is built up from migrants.”

“It’s part of human history where God brings people to different places,” he said. “And when we look for a person to guide the church, it has to be someone who somehow answers what we would have seen in Jesus himself, who somehow has to reflect something of his mystery.”

Asked about the harsh critiques of Francis being leveled by some cardinals ahead of the conclave, Cardinal Michael Czerny, a Czech-born Canadian prelate and longtime senior Vatican official, described them as typical of an era of social media saturation and intense news cycles where “everything goes without restraint.”

But “Francis invited debate,” he said. “He would not want to be seen as beyond criticism.”

Asked if nationality was being taken into consideration in the selection process, he said, “I hope not, because it shouldn’t be.”

Stefano Pitrelli contributed to this report.