Navigating a More Uncertain World: Lessons from CIA’s Red Cell

Twenty-five years after 9/11, the United States is confronting yet another era of profound uncertainty and potential dangers. The pace and scale of change are creating unforeseen disruptions that impact our security, stability, and prosperity. Advancing technologies are being adopted and applied in unexpected ways, sparking debates about the unintended consequences for human existence. No longer can we sit back and wait to be surprised.In the wake of 911, the CIA stood up the Red Cell to address a systemic failure of imagination and later reaffirmed this mission after the intelligence failures of the Iraq War. As memories have faded, the appetite for bold, contrarian thinking has waned, but we remain one unforeseen act of violence, one slow-burning and overlooked development, one scientific breakthrough away from the next shock. In this essay, those who served in the Red Cell look back on its history to derive lessons for better navigating this uncertain future. Now is not a time for cautious assessments but fearless exploration. Leaders in the public and private sectors must be ready to navigate a broader range of possible futures. The safety, security, and livelihoods of future g...