Moldova accuses Russia of meddling ahead of its elections and EU referendum

On a bright, crisp morning just a few days ahead of Moldova’s landmark referendum on European Union integration, a handful of volunteers scattered out across the town of Rîşcani, in the country’s north, to talk to residents about the upcoming vote.

Moldovans will be asked on Sunday to decide whether EU membership should be designated a strategic goal in the country’s constitution, a move that would further distance the former Soviet republic politically from Russia. The EU referendum coincides with Moldova's presidential election, where the country’s pro-Western leader Maia Sandu is seeking a second term against a field of mostly pro-Kremlin candidates. Both votes will take place against a backdrop of Russian meddling, including evidence of vote buying and disinformation, according to Moldovan authorities. The Kremlin has denied the allegations.

The European Commission accepted Moldova's candidacy to join the EU in 2022 and opened accession negotiations in June this year. The EU has pledged almost $2 billion in economic support for Moldova to help the country accomplish the necessary reforms to achieve membership, and improve infrastructure badly in need of an upgrade.

While various opinion polls over recent months show that most Moldovans support EU membership, residents in predominantly Russian-speaking regions like the north, or Gagauzia in the south, still favor stronger ties with Russia over EU membership.

In Rîşcani, where pro-Kremlin political groups have a strong foothold and disinformation is prevalent, the volunteers were met with a heavy degree of skepticism from local residents.

“It’s so close-minded here,” said Andrian Ursache, 23, one of the trip’s coordinators. He admitted that trying to get through to people amid all the propaganda was a struggle. “It’s a fight with the disinformation. They don’t want to [join] the European Union because they don’t believe in the European Union or because they are not very informed,” he said.

In fact, many residents approached by the volunteers declined to even talk about the upcoming vote. Some indicated their opposition by crossing their arms to form an “X.” One local resident said the referendum had been thought up by “idiots,” while another repeated an oft-used Russian disinformation line that moving any closer to Europe would draw Moldova into war.

“They want to go back and be a part of something that doesn’t exist anymore,” Ursache said, referencing Moldova’s decades as part of the former Soviet Union. “But we can’t go back.”

Inside Russia's orbit

Since declaring independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has struggled to free itself from Russian influence and prosper economically. A significant chunk of the workforce has migrated abroad for economic opportunities, emptying out villages and leaving behind an increasingly graying population. Many of the country’s 2.6 million residents still depend on agriculture, modest pensions or salaries far below the rest of Europe for their livelihoods.

Moscow also continues to back Transnistria, a breakaway republic in eastern Moldova, where the Kremlin helps to maintain a presence of some 1,500 troops and a frozen conflict has lingered for over three decades.

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of neighboring Ukraine sparked an influx of refugees into Moldova, resulting in skyrocketing rental prices. Moscow then slashed gas exports, creating an energy crisis and driving up the cost of utilities, which has further strained household budgets. Moldova has since successfully diversified its energy supply. It no longer depends on gas from Russia, but still buys electricity from the Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria.

President Sandu, who has made EU membership the pillar of her reelection campaign, has strongly condemned the invasion of Ukraine and warned that Russia is actively seeking to overthrow her own government. The Kremlin has overtly threatened Moldova on numerous occasions, drawing parallels between it and Ukraine, and stoked political unrest by bankrolling Russia-friendly politicians who pay protesters to agitate against Moldova’s pro-Western government.

In response to Moscow’s aggression, Moldova has expelled dozens of Russian diplomats and embassy staff, attempted to block numerous media outlets Moldovan authorities accuse of spreading Russian propaganda, and even closed its airspace briefly in February 2023 over what the Sandu government described as an attempted coup.

Disinformation aside, divisions within Moldovan society are real and they play out in culture wars encompassing a range of topics. In March of last year, Moldova’s parliament passed a law naming Romanian the country’s only official language, prompting backlash from pro-Russian opposition groups who tried to disrupt the proceedings. Dozens of priests have also left the Russian-backed Orthodox Church for the Romanian Orthodox Church.

Tried-and-true methods

Russia and its local proxies are now accused of trying to thwart a “Yes” vote on EU membership through vote buying and a sophisticated campaign of disinformation.

Earlier this month, national police chief Viorel Cernautanu alleged that a Russian network bribed more than 130,000 Moldovans to vote against the referendum and in favor of Kremlin-aligned candidates. In September alone, he said, around $15 million had been transferred to accounts opened at Russia's Promsvyazbank. In April, officials at Chișinău airport confiscated the equivalent of about $1 million in cash from pro-Russian opposition members returning via Armenia from a gathering in Moscow.

Fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, who was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison last year for his role in the disappearance of $1 billion from Moldova's banking system, has openly offered on the mobile messaging app Telegram to pay voters who convince others at polling stations to vote against the referendum, dangling a bonus if a majority of people at their polling station vote “No.”

In comments to Russia's TASS news agency, Shor dismissed the allegations of bribery as an "absurd spectacle."

Buying off supporters has been a tried-and-true tactic for politicians supported by Moscow. During the energy crisis, Shor and his allies began organizing frequent anti-government rallies in Chișinău, paying protesters a stipend to take part. Often those who attended were elderly pensioners upset about the skyrocketing cost of living.

Earlier this month, Moldova’s Ziarul de Gardǎ, an independent news outlet, published an in-depth investigation after infiltrating Shor’s network, revealing tactics used by the protest organizers.

Moscow has been fine-tuning its use of propaganda in Moldova for years. Moldova has had limited success blocking Russian-language propaganda sites, as many remain accessible.

However, earlier this month, Meta released a statement indicating it had removed a network of fake users from Facebook and Instagram. According to the statement, the disinformation operation originated primarily in Transnistria and targeted Russian-speakers in Moldova with fictitious, Russian-language news brands posing as independent entities. It also sought to funnel users to off-platform channels, including the Telegram app. Meanwhile, Telegram deactivated 15 channels and 95 chatbots this month linked to Ilan Shor and other pro-Russian politicians. Previously, both Meta and Telegram have allowed extensive advertising that has spread disinformation related to Moldova.

Watchdog MD, a Moldovan think tank that monitors disinformation, has identified around 200 distinct themes promoted over Russian-linked disinformation sources regarding the referendum. Some of these include promoting rumors that all the arable land in Moldova will be sold off to foreigners, churches with ties to the Russian Orthodoxy will be shuttered, Moldova will be forced to join the war effort in Ukraine, Russian speakers will be marginalized, Moldova will reunify with Romania, and there will be mandatory education promoting LGBTQ+ rights introduced into school curricula.

Such tropes prey upon existing fears and prejudices, explained Andrei Curararu, associate researcher at Watchdog MD, saying that in particular, narratives involving the church, language and LGBTQ-related issues were exploited heavily.

“Russian propaganda is always talking about how the West is degrading, that they have no values, that they are actually robbing everybody of their values,” Curararu said. “Some people are quite easily persuaded by these primitive narratives.”