Millions of dollars poured into prediction markets on election night, trading on Democratic control of Congress and Texas governor's race

The Kalshi 2026 midterm election prediction website arranged on a laptop in Forest Hills, New York, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026. Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesMore than 87% of all election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket gave the right candidate at least a 90% chance of winning their race 24 hours before election night, a CNBC analysis found.Election night showed how traders reacted to real time midterm results, as trading activity surged and market prices shifted to Democrats after results from Indiana began rolling in before 7 p.m. on Nov. 3. Many midterm races were uncompetitive, which boosted the overall hit rate on prediction markets."I'd say prediction markets did pretty well," said Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University. "But they didn't outperform the best," he added, referring to traditional forecast polls that tracked results that night. Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.Prediction market saw big trades on election night. After 8 p.m. on Nov. 3, at least $1 million was traded on a Kalshi market that incumbent Gov. Gr...