Markets see Warsh endorsing a rate hike in September. Not everyone is convinced

Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, walks the grounds during the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Moran, Wyoming, US, on Friday, Aug. 28, 2026. David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJust a few carefully chosen words from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh convinced markets that he was serious about inflation and ready to recommend an interest rate hike in just a few weeks.The path in that direction, though, still looks cluttered, with plenty of incentive left to convince Warsh and his fellow central bank policymakers that a move isn't necessary yet.Following Warsh's keynote speech Friday at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium, markets flipped on rate expectations. Prior, they expected little likelihood of a rate increase until at least December; after that changed to a high probability of one when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in a little more than two weeks.However, some observers warned that hype for a hike is unjustified."It is my belief that we've seen a supply shock, and traditionally you don't raise into a supply shock unless you see second- or third-order effects," Treasury Secretary Scott Bes...