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Since September 25, Madagascar has witnessed a dramatic shift in its political landscape as young protesters took to the streets, sparking one of the most powerful demonstrations in the country’s recent history.
On Monday, thousands of people gathered on a square in the capital, Antananarivo, shouting: "The president must quit now".The movement gained significant momentum and support when the Corps d'administration des personnels et des services administratifs et techniques (CAPSAT) unit of the armed forces chose to stand behind the Gen Z-led demonstrations."From now on, all orders of the Malagasy army, whether land, air or military, will come from CAPSAT headquarters," officers from the unit declared in a video statement on Saturday.They urged the country’s security forces to stand firm in solidarity by refusing any "orders to shoot" at protesters, emphasizing the importance of protecting citizens’ rights and maintaining peace during this critical moment.
Where is President Andry Rajoelina?
President Andry Rajoelina's location is currently unknown.Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, leader of the opposition in parliament, told the Reuters news agency that Rajoelina left Madagascar on Sunday after CAPSAT declared its support for the protesters.
"We called the staff of the presidency, and they confirmed that he left the country," Randrianasoloniaiko said.A military source also told Reuters that Rajoelina flew out of the country on a French military aircraft on Sunday. French radio RFI said he had struck a deal with President Emmanuel Macron.This has not been confirmed by the French government. Earlier on Sunday, Rajoelina's office released a statement denouncing CAPSAT's support for protesters as "an attempt to seize power illegally and by force, contrary to the constitution and to democratic principles."Opposition members of Madagascar's National Assembly will begin impeachment proceedings against Rajoelina, Randrianasoloniaiko said. "Our constitution gives us the right to impeach the president; we are impeaching him," he said of Rajoelina.Protesters celebrated the exit of Rajoelina from the country, singing the national anthem and waving flags as they marched on the streets.
Is history repeating itself?
Rajoelina came to power in 2009, after CAPSAT supported a revolt to oust his predecessor. At the time, Rajoelina was the mayor of the capital and assembled several tens of thousands in the streets demanding the resignation of President Marc Ravalomanana's government. Observers say the events unfolding are too similar to ignore."Because of the influence, the history and the legitimacy that CAPSAT has, it means that, as much as Rajoelina has leverage and control of other units, the balance of power is not in his favor right now,” political risk analyst Rose Mumanya told DW.A report by Small Arms Survey suggests that Rajoelina's predecessor, 75-year-old Marc Ravalomanana, was not overthrown by a violent military coup but simply lost control of the security apparatus.Mumanya said that, although Rajoelina has tried to put his loyalists in other units of the Armed Forces to prevent a repetition of history, CAPSAT remains independent of his influence, posing a significant threat to his rule.
What makes CAPSAT so important?
Although CAPSAT is not a front-line combat unit, it controls important aspects of the army, including personnel management, administrative support, logistics and technical services."It's led by influential elites from the gendarmerie group, and has close links to influential and business elites in the country. A lot of them are not pro-Rajoelina now. In the last three to four years, they have become increasingly suspicious of Rajoelina and questioned whether their interests align,” Mumanya added.Analysts believe that the power of the army makes it one of the best-organized institutions in Madagascar, with the power to intervene in a political crisis.The installation of new Chief of Army Staff General Demosthene Pikulas, chosen by CAPSAT, has consolidated its importance in the army. His installation follows Rajoelina's dissolution of his government, leaving several positions vacant."I give him my blessing," Armed Forces Minister Manantsoa Deramasinjaka Rakotoarivelo was quoted as saying at a ceremony to install Pikulas into the post.Mumanya expressed worry. "If the coup is successful and Rajoelina is able to be removed from power, the repercussions will be very serious," she said. "It would be a continuation of the same cycle where you have very weak institutions and a relatively stronger army which can intervene, not for the benefit of the people but for the benefit of business and political elites."Rajoelina had already fired his government and appointed a new prime minister, but protesters remained unfazed.Some analysts believe that a genuine national dialogue that brings aboard all aggrieved stakeholders could be a key starting point for solving the impasse.
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