Lula or Bolsonaro: Wall Street braces for two wildly different results in Brazil election

This combination of file pictures created on Sept. 29, 2026, shows Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia on Sept. 16, 2026; and Brazil's right-wing Presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro at the Maracanazinho gymnasium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Aug. 22, 2026.Evaristo Sa | Mauro Pimentel | Afp | Getty ImagesWith the first round of Brazil's presidential election taking place Sunday, Wall Street is gearing up with starkly different market predictions depending on the outcome of the neck-and-neck race."The Brazil trade is: Does Lula win or does Bolsonaro win?" said Fernando Marengo, chief economist at Black Toro Global Investments.Those names should sound familiar. Lula is 80-year-old leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for a fourth term against 45-year-old right-winger Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. If neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will take place Oct. 25.In short, if Bolsonaro wins, Wall Street expects a rally in the country's bonds, currency and stocks.As Bolsonaro has come from behind in the last few months, Brazilian stocks have moved higher along with his poll numbe...