Lone Soviet Satellite Plunging Towards Earth May Crash Like A Meteorite

A 53-year-old Cold War-era Soviet spaceship, initially destined for Venus, is set to crash on Earth in about two weeks. Launched on March 31, 1972, the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft, weighing just under 500kg, is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere at a speed of about 250 km per hour, posing a risk similar to a meteorite impact, according to a report in The Independent, citing a tracker.

When launched, the Soviet probe was bound for Venus, but a technical failure locked it in a perpetual orbit around Earth. However, it is expected to start falling back to the Earth in an uncontrolled re-entry around May 10.

"In about 2 weeks from now, an unusual uncontrolled reentry will happen: a 53-year-old landing capsule from a failed Soviet Venera mission stuck in Earth orbit," Dutch satellite tracker Marco Langbroek wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

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In about 2 weeks from now, an unusual #uncontrolled #reentry will happen: a 53-yr-old landing capsule from a failed Soviet #Venera mission stuck in Earth orbit. It will likely survive reentry.
(link to blogpost with more info including reentry forecasts, in next tweet) pic.twitter.com/PuuO5ZP00D

— Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) April 25, 2025

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Since the probe was designed to withstand acceleration, high pressures, and extreme heat on Venus, there is a small chance it might survive the reentry when most space objects disintegrate upon entering the Earth's atmosphere.

"As this is a lander that was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere, it is possible it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact," said Mr Langbroek.

"There are many uncertain factors in this though, including that this will be a long shallow reentry trajectory and the age of the object."

As for where the object will crash on Earth, it is still far too early to tell. However, with an orbital inclination of 51.7 degrees, the reentry can occur anywhere between latitudes 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south. While it is likely that the probe will crash into a water body, there is a small chance it might thud into land.