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The prospect of full-scale war between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack is nearing a tipping point, experts have warned. On April 22, a devastating militant attack in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir claimed 26 lives, marking one of the region’s deadliest incidents since 2019. India blamed Pakistan-based terrorist groups, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowing to punish the attack’s backers “beyond their imagination.”
New Delhi has already suspended the Indus Water Treaty and downgraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan, signalling a severe escalation in bilateral tensions. Pakistan denies involvement but test-fired its Abdali surface-to-surface missile over the weekend, adding that the launch was “aimed at ensuring the operational readiness of troops".
Beyond worsening ties, the attack has exposed deep fault lines within Pakistan’s military and political leadership – particularly around the role of army chief General Asim Munir, regarded as the most powerful man in the country.
Though generally low-profile since assuming command in 2022, Munir drew attention days before the attack with a striking speech to expatriates in Islamabad.
“We are different from Hindus in every possible way,” he said, calling Kashmir Pakistan’s “jugular vein” and pledging never to abandon Kashmiris in their “heroic struggle against Indian occupation.”
It wasn’t his first statement in that vein. On Kashmir Solidarity Day in February, he declared: “Pakistan has already fought three wars for Kashmir, and if 10 more wars are required, Pakistan will fight them.”
But what might have passed as routine rhetoric gained far greater weight following the Pahalgam attack, fuelling speculation in India that Islamabad was behind the attack.
“This was not standard rhetoric,” said Joshua T. White, a South Asia expert at Johns Hopkins University.
“While the substance aligns with Pakistan’s ideological narrative, the tone – especially its direct invocation of Hindu-Muslim differences – made it particularly inflammatory. Coming just before the attack, it badly complicated any effort by Pakistan to claim restraint or pursue backchannel diplomacy.”
Abdul Basit, senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), said Munir’s remarks came across as unusually confrontational.
“Munir may have been caught up in the moment. He said things that, in a private setting, may not have raised eyebrows – but as army chief, on a public platform, they signalled a power move,” he said.
“It felt like a declaration that Pakistan’s direction is once again in the army’s hands.”
On Thursday, standing atop a tank during a military exercise, General Munir addressed troops in the field. “Let there be no ambiguity,” he said. “Any military misadventure by India will be met with a swift, resolute and notch-up response.”
Munir’s military credentials are formidable. After earning the Sword of Honour at Pakistan’s Officers Training School in 1986, he commanded troops near the contested Kashmir border, led both of Pakistan’s premier intelligence agencies – including the ISI – and earned a master’s in public policy from the National Defence University in Islamabad. He also trained in Japan and Malaysia.
But Munir is widely seen as temperamentally different from his predecessor, General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
His status as a Hafiz-e-Quran (someone who has memorised the Quran) and frequent emphasis on Islamic themes in military speeches point to a religiously influenced worldview – one some analysts say may shape his approach to the India–Pakistan conflict.
Bajwa supported quiet diplomacy with India and exercised caution during the 2019 Pulwama crisis. Though Pakistan carried out a military response to Indian airstrikes, he refrained from escalation – releasing captured Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman in a move credited with preventing war.
“Bajwa had diplomatic channels open and was managing multiple fronts – Kashmir, Afghanistan, the US withdrawal – with pragmatism,” said Basit.
While the issue of Kashmir is widely viewed in Pakistan as a national security interest, other internal pressures are bubbling away, with Pakistani civilians increasingly vocal about their dissatisfaction with General Munir and the military establishment.
Concerns of military overreach – the deep involvement of the armed forces in political affairs, which is seen as undermining civilian governance and democratic institutions – and the reaction to crackdowns on protests and opposition figures, including the banning of the social media platform X, have fuelled perceptions of the military as an oppressive force.
X, formerly known as Twitter, has remained inaccessible in Pakistan since February 2024. The Pakistan government blocked access to the platform around the time of the February elections, citing national security concerns.
This is underwritten by a deepening resentment over the prioritisation of military funding. Despite facing severe economic challenges such as soaring inflation and unemployment, the military budget has remained intact while social welfare has decreased in real terms.
"Munir is under immediate, intense pressure to act," added Basit.
"He cannot afford long, drawn-out strategies like Bajwa. He needs quicker, firmer responses – both at home and abroad.”
English (US) · 