Japan’s Takaichi hopes for strong majority in snow-hit snap elections

Japan voted in snow-hit snap elections Sunday with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hoping to turn a honeymoon start into a resounding ballot box victory that could rile China and rattle financial markets.

Opinion polls suggest that Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost non-stop for decades, will easily win more than the 233 seats needed to regain a majority in the powerful 465-member lower house.

Heavy snowfall blanketed many parts of the country on election day, including Tokyo and other regions that rarely see winter snow.

"I think it's important to come, so that we can properly take part in politics as well," a 50-year-old woman, who only disclosed her surname as Kondo, told AFP near a voting station in Tokyo.

"Even if it snows more than it does now, I still plan to go," she added.

"I struggled to find a way to the ballot box as snow was accumulating around it, and it was a pain to arrive here with bad road conditions," a man in his 70s in Aomori in northern Japan told public broadcaster NHK.

"I wish the election was held in a snowless season," he said. It is the first time in decades that Japan holds a general election in snowy February.

Pollsters even suggest – with some caution due to undecided voters and wintry weather – that the LDP and its coalition partner could secure 310 seats needed for a handy two-thirds majority.

This would be the best result for the LDP since 2017 when Takaichi's mentor, the late ex-premier Shinzo Abe, achieved a similar result.

Takaichi was a heavy metal drummer in her youth, an admirer of Britain's "Iron Lady" Margaret Thatcher, and on the ultra-conservative fringe of the LDP when she became leader in October.

She has defied pessimists to be a hit with voters, especially young ones, with fans lapping up everything from her handbag to her jamming to a K-pop song with South Korea's president.

Pandas and public debt

Takaichi has however not had everything her own way, in particular with regard to worries about her stewardship of the public finances of Asia's number-two economy.

She followed up a $135-billion stimulus package aimed at easing the pain of inflation – a big cause of voter discontent – with a campaign promise to suspend a consumption tax on food.

Takaichi's promise to suspend the 8 percent sales tax on food for two years to help households cope with rising prices has spooked investors concerned about how the nation with the heaviest debt burden among advanced economies will fund the plan.

Japan's debts are more than twice the size of the entire economy, and in recent weeks yields on long-dated bonds have hit record highs while the yen has seesawed.

Niigata resident Mineko Mori, 74, padding through the snow with her ‍dog early on Sunday, said she worried that Takaichi's tax cuts could saddle future generations with an even bigger burden.

Mori planned to vote for Sanseito, a small far-right party that broke through in a 2025 upper house ballot with promises to crack down on ​badly behaved foreigners and control immigration.

Read more‘Japanese First’: The deep roots of the rising far right

Takaichi "always talks about taking responsibility through expansionary fiscal policy, and I don’t know whether that will actually lead us in a better direction", Chika Sakamoto, 50, said as she visited a voting station in Tokyo.

"Still, I wanted to see what would happen if they pursued aggressive fiscal spending," hoping that it would ease impact of rising prices on household income, she said.

Barely two weeks in office, Takaichi – seen before assuming the premiership as a China hawk – suggested that Japan could intervene militarily if Beijing sought to take self-ruled Taiwan by force.

China regards the island as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to "reunify" it with the mainland.

With Takaichi having days earlier pulled out all the stops to welcome US President Donald Trump, Beijing's reaction to her unscripted remarks was furious.

It summoned Tokyo's ambassador, warned its citizens against visiting Japan and conducted joint air drills with Russia. Last month, Japan's last two pandas were even returned to China.

Trump has not publicly weighed in on the spat but last week endorsed Takaichi as a "strong, powerful, and wise Leader, and one that truly loves her Country".

Margarita Estevez-Abe, associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, said that the China episode raised Takaichi's popularity even more.

"Now she doesn't have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place," Estevez-Abe told AFP.

"So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on amending the relationship with China."

Voting stations were due to close at 8pm (1100 GMT) with media predictions based on partial results expected soon afterwards.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and Reuters)