Japan earthquake horror as forecast says 300,000 may die when next 'big one' strikes

Japan's next 'big one' earthquake could kill 300,000 people, an official report says (Image: Getty)

Japan has warned the next "big one" earthquake to hit its Pacific coast could kill nearly 300,000 people, create £1.4trillion worth of damage to the country's economy and generate 12.3 million evacuees. The worst-case scenario was published in a report detailing the level of devastation which could result from a magnitude nine quake along a fault underneath the Nankai Trough, south of Japan's Honshu island.

The chilling forecast is based on an earthquake and tsunami striking Japan's coast west of the capital Tokyo, causing buildings to collapse and fires to break out. The heaviest loss of life and worst damage would happen if the quake were to strike on a winter's evening when large numbers of people are cooking in wooden homes or crowded on public transport, according to the report. It said the death toll could reach 298,000, lower than the 330,000 estimate published in the last version of the report from a decade ago. The biggest killer would be a combined earthquake and tsunami, with the disaster planners estimating a giant wave would claim three times as many lives as the quake.

The next 'big one' quake would do £1.4trillion worth of damage to the country's economy (Image: Getty)

Some 950,000 people could also be injured, 2.35 million homes destroyed and ¥270tn (£1.4tn) wiped from Japan's economy as a result of the disruption as well as buildings and infrastructure being destroyed.

Opinion appears divided as to when the "big one" could strike, with some predicting it might happen before the end of the decade. The term itself is also open to debate.

Anastasios Sextos, Professor of Earthquake Engineering at Bristol University, told the Express there is "high probability" a magnitude nine earthquake could happen in the next five years.

He said: "A time frame for Japan's 'big one' can't be precisely identified, but by studying the instruments, data and reported history of earthquakes one can say there is a high probability for it to happen in this decade."

Professor Ilan Kelman from the Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction at University College London, said he couldn't say if another "big one" will occur in the next five or 50 years.

Speaking to the Express, he said: "While we have very limited prediction in time, we have high prediction in space. We know it will happen in Japan. It could be the next five or 50 years."

He also explained that from his perspective as an expert in risk and disaster reduction, the term "big one" relates to the level of destruction which follows in the wake of an earthquake rather than the quake itself. He said: "The 'big one', from my perspective, is not the quake, it's the disaster."

Japan's last "big one" was on March 11, 2011, when a magnitude nine undersea earthquake was recorded 45 miles east of the country's Tōhoku region. It was the most powerful quake ever recorded in Japan and the fourth strongest in the world since modern seismography began in 1900.

Japan's next magnitude nine quake will lead to 12.3 million evacuees, the report says (Image: Getty)

The quake triggered a tsunami with giant waves devastating coastal towns and cities. It also knocked out the electricity grid, which caused meltdowns at three reactors inside the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Officials put the death toll for the number of confirmed dead or those listed as missing from the disaster at about 18,500. Other estimates were for a final toll of at least 20,000.

But the Tōhoku quake's toll is dwarfed by that recorded after a less powerful earthquake in Haiti in 2010, when a quarter of a million people were killed, highlighting the importance of preparedness and a country having the means to pay for it.

Professor Sextos said while the latest report lists a lower death toll than the previous publication, the two figures are more or less the same. He said: "From an engineering point of view we would consider it as pretty much the same prediction. It is a very high level of fatalities."

He explained that population density in the region of Japan covered by the report would account for such a high estimated death toll.

Since the 2011 quake, Japan has reclaimed and raised land levels along parts of its Pacific coast in a bid to avoid the catastrophic consequences of the tsunami, which caused most of the damage and loss of life at the time.

Some 950,000 people could be injured in the next 'big one' quake (Image: Getty)

The Japanese government's report largely attributes the lowering of the death toll compared with 10 years ago to the strengthening of buildings, better official preparedness and the development of mobile phone early warning systems.

Professor Sextos said the next magnitude nine quake to strike the area would test the success of that work. Professor Kelman pointed out that reclaimed or rebuilt land can turn to liquid because of a quake through a process known as liquefaction. The risk of buildings toppling over would be heightened as a result.

Liquefaction happens when loose, water-logged soil at or near the surface of the ground behaves like liquid in response to strong shaking. Professor Kelman suggested the next "big one" quake would also test the success of Japan's land reclamation.

Japan itself is situated on the so-called "Ring of Fire" geological zone, which runs around the Pacific and is marked by intense volcanic as well as seismic activity.

Both experts described the country as a leader among quake-prone countries, with a population well-versed in how to respond to earthquakes and the authorities having learnt a lot about designing planning regulations and building codes to help mitigate against disaster.

In the event of a magnitude nine quake, mobile phone warnings automatically triggered by quakes and tsunamis would allow up to 20 crucial seconds for people and authorities to respond. This includes stopping trains to avoid derailments and shutting down critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants.

Professor Sextos said there is some uncertainty as to how well prepared Japan would be in the event of an earthquake and tsunami combined, or even if this were to happen during a typhoon.

But he added: "Japan is a perfect example of preparedness, but despite this, a degree of loss is inevitable. Statistically, unfortunately, there will be a great loss. It is our responsibility as a society to mitigate against this loss.

"We have to learn the message nature has offered us and prepare for the next 'big one'."

Professor Kelman said: "Timing has so much influence over whether an earthquake becomes a disaster. The more we do today, the more we will be ready for tomorrow."