Italy's 'Trump whisperer' Giorgia Meloni to meet Trump amid trade standoff with Europe

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday amid a tense trade standoff with the European Union over tariffs.

Meloni's visit to Washington makes her the first European leader to meet the president since he announced tariffs on European imports earlier this month.

Trump is a fan of Meloni, the leader of the right-wing populist Brothers of Italy party — one that has risen in prominence along with a tide of other similar populist parties in Europe. He described her as a "fantastic woman" who was "really taking Europe by storm" when they met in Mar-a-Lago in January.

But that rapport — and Meloni's diplomatic skills — will be put to the test on Thursday, as the leaders meet amid wider concerns of full-blown trade war between the U.S. and the bloc.

In early April, Trump announced a 20% "reciprocal" tariff on all imported goods from the EU as part of his wide-reaching global trade tariffs policy. He has since reduced the duty to 10% for 90 days, allowing for negotiations to take place to try to find a trade deal.

The EU in turn paused its retaliatory 25% tariffs targeting 21 billion euros' ($23.8 billion) worth of U.S. exports. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commented last week that the EU wants "to give negotiations a chance" but should talks not prove satisfactory, EU countermeasures will kick in. 

The EU will be watching Meloni's meeting with Trump carefully, hopeful that she could aid talks to find a compromise to resolve what Trump sees as an unfair and unbalanced trading relationship due to the EU's persistent trade surplus with the U.S.

Meloni has been described as something of a "Trump whisperer" who could placate the U.S. leader's position when it comes to trade with the EU. She earned the moniker after Trump visibly enjoyed a five-hour meeting with her at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida in January. She's also due to host Vice President J.D. Vance in Rome on April 18.

Thursday's meeting "represents a key opportunity for her to demonstrate both her closeness to President Donald Trump and her potential role as a credible interlocutor capable of revitalizing transatlantic dialogue," Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at risk consultancy Teneo, said in emailed analysis last week.

"However, despite having pursued this visit even before the “Liberation Day” period [the name U.S. officials gave to the day global tariffs were announced on April 2], concerns are growing that it could backfire, especially considering Trump’s recent treatment of various foreign leaders," the analyst added.

"One of the major challenges of this visit will be demonstrating that Meloni is acting as a mediator on behalf of the entire EU, not just in defense of Italian interests."

Export-oriented Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, could stand to benefit greatly from an EU-U.S. trade deal as it won't want to lose a lucrative market for its top exports to the States. Those include machinery and medical products as well as cars, clothes and food and drink. Problematically for the Trump administration, however, Rome recorded a trade surplus of $43.9 billion with the U.S. in 2024, U.S. data shows.

When Trump's tariffs of 20% were announced on EU imports, Meloni was among the leaders lamenting the decision, saying it was "wrong" but urging her European counterparts to try to avert a trade war.

"The tariffs are wrong and not in the interest of either party," Meloni said, noting that Italy would "do everything we can to work on an agreement with the U.S., with the aim of averting a trade war that would inevitably weaken the West in favor of other global players."

Meloni had also warned that Italian food and drink exports could be hit hard by tariffs, noting that "Italian agri-food products are in demand all over the world, starting of course with Europe."

"It must be remembered that the United States is the second-largest destination market, with exports rising by 17% in 2024. The U.S. market is fundamental for us."

Teneo's Piccoli said Meloni’s cautious response to U.S. tariffs was also driven by her belief that the biggest risks to Italy’s economy do not lie in the tariffs themselves, particularly as they are currently being applied in a reduced form, "but in the potential consequences of a full-blown trade war involving retaliatory tariffs or a U.S. disengagement from European defense."

"Such scenarios could impact Italy’s public finances significantly. Current estimates suggest the tariffs could reduce Italian exports by 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, though the actual effect is likely smaller due to the limited pass-through effect; many Italian exports are premium or niche products, making them hard to replace in the short term," he noted.