Israel is imploding

Israel may look to many like a winner, a de facto hegemon in the Middle East. It has waged war on several fronts simultaneously, dealing deadly blows on its enemies. In parallel, it continues to enjoy much support from various Western constituencies and leaders, particularly those who face real challenges from the hard right in their countries.

But under the surface, Israel is imploding. An international coalition, led by the United States with the participation of Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, is gradually removing Gaza from Israel’s control, as well as pressuring Israel out of its territorial escapades in Syria and Lebanon.

This is being publicly opposed by the Israeli government, but it appears to be carried out with the tacit acceptance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has now realised that he is better served by the threat of war rather than by war itself. This is especially after he failed to accomplish his own “war goals” – the destruction of Hamas and the return of the hostages alive; it seems the Israeli army may have killed many more hostages than initially assumed.

The unconditional support Israel once received from the US and Europe is dwindling, and so is cooperation with Gulf states. The Palestinians, just like the Muslim Brotherhood, were for decades perceived as a greater threat to the regional status quo than the Israelis.

Where Western leaders once competed over who would be quickest to condemn Hamas and commend Israel’s fight for “Western values”, these same leaders are much quieter now that constant evidence of the Israeli genocide is pouring out of Gaza. Even US President Donald Trump has much less to say about Hamas than he once did.

It is clearly difficult for Western leaders to acknowledge that Israel has become an agent of regional chaos. It is much easier to gradually, discretely, remove its levers and make it come to terms with the emerging reality without forcing Israeli leaders to publicly lose face. There is no need to confront Israel directly. It is enough to give it the occasional cold shoulder and to make it wait.

Despite protestations to the contrary, Israel needs international cooperation to attack and occupy in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iran. That is why its operations are gradually shrinking. The Israeli army is now busy “hunting” individuals who once participated in attacks on Israelis, rather than engaging in strategic expansion. These are Israel’s capabilities in this new order.

Israel may be losing on the diplomatic front, too. Hamas is negotiating while the Israeli government is stalling. If this continues, Israel will be faced with a reality it did not actively shape. There is talk, for example, of Israelis being forced to pay for the removal of the rubble that the Israeli army created over more than two years of annihilating Gaza.

While Israel may be on its way to losing its status as a hegemon of the Middle East, Israeli society is devoting all of its considerable energy to internal squabbles “over Israel’s soul” and to intensifying its illegal occupation of Palestinian territory. Israelis are losing their faith in the existence of a world outside Israel’s borders. If there is such a world, many believe, it hates Israel with a passion regardless of its actions.

The Israeli discourse is focusing more and more on issues ranging from threats to Jews to the Israeli collective, abandoning talk of “geostrategic” upheavals that were quite common only six months ago. There is also an overwhelming disregard for global realities and public opinion.

Take the new scandal plaguing the Israeli Air Force (IAF). Future fighter pilots, on the verge of graduating from two years of training, underwent a weeklong “imprisonment simulation”, generally considered to be the most difficult part of their training. Afterwards, they were sent to a hotel in a secret location in order to recuperate.

The cadets revealed the location of the hotel to their families, who visited their sons over a weekend; some of them drank alcohol. Their commanding officer even allowed them to imbibe.

The cadets will all face disciplinary action. IAF commander Tomer Bar clarified that “no leniency will be given on value‑based matters that are a foundation of the corps’ ethos.”

This is implosion. The IAF is responsible for most of the devastation in Gaza, including the bombing of civilian housing and infrastructure, which has horrified the world and stripped the Israeli army of its “most moral” claim. And yet, the IAF still talks about “values” and “ethos”. The pilots are the main arm of the genocide, but what matters is unauthorised alcohol consumption.

The cadets and pilots in general were cast by the media as representatives of the old Israeli elites, morally bankrupt and rudderless, spoiled in comparison with the new elites who torched Gaza and died for their efforts on behalf of the “People of Israel”.

In response, the pilots as a collective praised their own loyalty to the government and the security of the Israeli state and their commitment to continue the genocide for as long as the “democratically elected government” – which they themselves have repeatedly protested against – instructs them to.

Perhaps even more importantly, Israel is losing its internal coherence. Unvaccinated children are dying of measles and the flu. Roving gangs of teenagers are attacking Palestinians who drive buses or clean streets. Palestinian citizens of Israel are murdered in criminal gang shootouts. Veterans of the Gaza “war” are committing suicide in unprecedented numbers.

The public mental health system has already collapsed under the burden, with appointments scheduled more than a year in advance. Classes in state schools are cancelled daily as teachers find themselves caring for their own children, left teacherless in their turn. The Ministry of Education has seen 25 senior professional leaders resign during the reign of the current Netanyahu government, most of them citing political interference in their work. In Tel Aviv, municipal employees have been encouraged to volunteer once a week at city kindergartens and nursery schools because there are no qualified personnel to be found.

There is a dearth of judges because the minister of justice isn’t speaking to the chief justice of the Supreme Court, and both their approvals are necessary for the appointment of new judges. Two government ministers hold nine ministerial portfolios because the ultra-Orthodox parties left the coalition and would not come back unless the government they formed rejects a compulsory military draft law for Haredi Jews.

The Israeli state is quickly becoming a hollowed-out shell. Institutions are failing, public servants are leaving and political appointees serving their patrons are the only ones left to step in and fill the gaps. The Israel that emerges is bound for institutional, financial and cultural poverty – or implosion.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.