The prospect of a lasting Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip seems increasingly possible. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz on April 16 endorsed a permanent army presence in certain sectors of the enclave, as Israel continues to extend its grip on the Palestinian territory.
The army "will remain in the security zones as a buffer between the enemy and the [Israeli] communities in any temporary or permanent situation in Gaza – as in Lebanon and Syria", the minister said in a statement, adding that a blockade on humanitarian aid in place since March 2 would remain in force.
Last December, Katz posted on X that after “eliminating Hamas's military and governmental capabilities in Gaza, Israel would have security control” over the territory, with “complete freedom of action".
“The fact that the Israeli army no longer leaves conquered areas marks a break with previous policies,” says Tewfik Hamel, military historian and expert on the Israeli army. "However, the implications of a permanent Israeli army presence are numerous and worrying. It could lead to a worsening of the already critical humanitarian crisis, and prolonged instability in the region," Hamel says.
Since a two-month ceasefire with Hamas collapsed on March 18, the Israeli army has considerably stepped up its presence in the enclave. On April 13, Israel announced that it had secured a new axis in the south called the “Morag corridor” between the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Yunis.
This corridor leaves Rafah, close to the Egyptian border, completely isolated. In the centre, the army also regained control of the Netzarim corridor, cutting off Gaza City from the rest of the territory.
This partition is accompanied by the enlargement of the buffer zone adjacent to the Israeli border. Before the Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, the Gaza buffer zone along the border with Israel was about 300 metres wide. It now has an average width of one kilometre, creating a vast no-man's-land within the narrow Palestinian territory.
Evacuation orders
In a report published on April 7 and entitled "The Perimeter", the Israeli NGO Breaking the Silence estimates that this buffer zone now represents over 15 percent of the territory of the Gaza Strip and 35 percent of its agricultural land.
Entirely off-limits to Palestinians, it constitutes a "death zone of enormous proportions", asserts the NGO, which claims that soldiers were ordered to “deliberately, methodically and systematically annihilate whatever was within the designated perimeter".
In addition to the vast swathes of territory that have become uninhabitable, repeated evacuation orders are plunging the Gazan population into permanent insecurity. According to the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 66% of the enclave's territory "is in no-go areas, or subject to displacement orders, or both".
Already considered to be one of the most densely populated territories in the world, Gaza's habitable surface area is shrinking fast, while three-quarters of its civilian infrastructure has been wiped out.
“We are witnessing in real time the destruction and forced displacement of the entire population of Gaza,” said Amande Bazerolle, emergency co-ordinator for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in the enclave on Wednesday.
Bazerolle said that the humanitarian response is “severely struggling under the weight of insecurity and critical supply shortages”. According to the UN, 500,000 Palestinians have been displaced in just one month.
Officially, the Israeli strategy of carving up the territory is designed to put maximum pressure on Hamas to sign a new truce agreement, which would include the release of the last hostages and the group’s disarmament, but without forcing Israel to give up its armed operations.
"We are dissecting the [Gaza] Strip and increasing the pressure step by step, so that they [Hamas] will return our hostages," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday during a visit to the White House.
On the ground, Israeli troops are meeting almost no resistance, a sign that "Hamas could be in the process of withdrawing, reorganising or changing its methods in response to the pressure," notes Hamel.
"The Israeli army could also be in a phase of preparing or reinforcing its positions before being faced with more determined resistance. The current lack of resistance does not guarantee a quick victory, nor an absence of future confrontations," Hamel says.
Meanwhile, it is civilians who have been paying the highest price since the resumption of Israeli air strikes. On Tuesday, the Hamas Ministry of Health announced that at least 1,630 Palestinians had been killed since March 18, bringing the death toll in Gaza since the war began to 51,000.
A prolonged 'uncertain' occupation
According to the Associated Press, Israel now controls half of the Gaza Strip. For its part, the Israeli army claimed on Wednesday to have transformed around 30 percent of the enclave into a “security perimeter”. This territorial occupation suggests a lasting takeover by Israel, while the Israeli far right has made no secret of its desire to recolonise the enclave since the terrorist attacks of October 7.
According to the Financial Times, the army has even proposed a plan to the government for a long-term occupation. The plan would see Gaza's two million inhabitants parked in camps by the sea, so as to empty the urban centres and limit the exposure of Israeli soldiers to the risks of guerrilla warfare. Humanitarian aid would be totally controlled by the army or authorised NGOs, to prevent Hamas from seizing it.
“While the Israeli army has the resources and technology to occupy Gaza, a prolonged presence requires ground troops, which becomes much more costly in terms of human and material resources,” says Hamel. "A prolonged occupation therefore remains uncertain, and the scenario of an army presence in key areas to ensure Israel's security more plausible."
The Israeli hawks' plans for conquest could also be challenged by army reservists, many of whom have recently spoken out in the media or on social networks against the Gaza offensive. Many say they are exhausted by the hundreds of days of active service over the past year and a half. Critics say the policy of pursuing all-out military operations is at an impasse, while Netanyahu and his far-right allies fiercely defend the strategy.
At the same time, the Israeli government is facing ever-greater pressure from public opinion. According to a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute, 68 percent of Israelis say the government’s priority should be the return of the hostages – up from 62 percent last September – rather than the destruction of Hamas.
Lastly, the Trump administration's position also remains unknown. A fan of quick fixes, US President Donald Trump could become impatient with a conflict that is damaging his relations with Arab countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, crucial to regional stability and the fight against Iran.
This article was translated from the original in French by David Howley.
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