1 month ago
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NERVOUS Iranian ministers engaged in urgent diplomatic talks last night as the country braced itself for an attack by Israel.
The high level talks with Middle Eastern neighbours are aimed to limit the scale of Israel’s response to Tehran's missile attack on Israel earlier this month.
Though the targeting of Iran’s nuclear facilities is theoretically possible, much more likely is that Israel chooses to focus on Iran’s oil refineries and oil fields.
In anticiaption of an attack, Iranian oil tankers have been ordered to evacuate the Kharg Island terminal, which is located 15 miles off the country's northwestern coast.
Last night experts warned that a strike which successfully hampers oil production would have devastating economic consequences on the regime and may even spark a new wave of social unrest.
“Iran has probably assessed that Israel without US assistance would struggle to effectively and critically damage its nuclear facilities because of their hardened and buried locations,” said regional expert Megan Sutcliffe of Sibylline strategic risk group.
“Its biggest concern is an attack on its oil facilities.
“Not only would reduced access to oil and oil products be economically devastating, but it is one of the most sensitive triggers for domestic unrest. This is a government that is only two years out of the Amini protests .”
Though Israel’s security cabinet had not yet decided the shape of the attacks, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant last week vowed that they would be “powerful, precise, and above all – surprising.”
Other military options include targeting missile launchers, weapons depots, Russian anti-aircraft systems, IRGC Command sites or even senior commanders.
Non-military targets include infrastructure like ports, or even senior political leaders.
The US has been trying to consult with Israel on how it plans to respond to Iran’s October 1 attack, with US President Joe Biden making it clear that he does not want Israel to target Iranian nuclear sites or oil fields.
Surrounding states have also expressed concern that an attack on oil facilities could create negative economic and environmental impacts for the entire region.
However, there is clear evidence that the US’ influence with Israel has been waning over the last year, most recently demonstrated by Tel Aviv decision to disregard US’ calls for more restraint in Lebanon, where an intense bombing campaign and ground offensive has reportedly killed more than 1,400 people in a month.
Crucially, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu did not consult the US before detonating thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah officials or before assassinating Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
"A strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would only push the program back," added Megan Sutcliffe.
"It would not erase Iran's know-how, and Israel is aware of this."
English (US) · 