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Ukrainians in Kyiv are split between feeling quietly optimistic and wearily cynical about their country sealing an agreement that grants the US opportunities to capatilise on the nation’s vast mineral resources. After months of tense negotiations and fears that Donald Trump was set to abandon the war-torn country, officials have signed a deal designed to give Washington an economic incentive to continue investing in Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction.
“I think Ukraine has won a little bit,” said Oleksandr Makarov, 60. “It shows Russia that Ukraine is getting closer to America for the first time since Trump came to power.” Sat on a bench in the centre of Kyiv in the spring sunshine, the commercial director was cautiously hopeful about the deal's impact on the bigger picture.
“It could bring closer the end of the war,” he added.
Theatre stenographer Anna Duhovychna, 47, agreed that the strategic importance of maintaining US support overrode any sense that this was a bad time for Ukraine to make such a deal for its natural resources.
“I’m not an economist, but in terms of the relationship between the two countries, I think these things are acceptable,” she told the Express.
“I think Ukraine should keep friendly ties with the United States because it's the largest economy in the world. Without their help, it’s going to be catastrophically hard.”
However, Iliya Pidgayniy, 27, who serves in the Ukrainian army with his brother, believes the deal, which seeks to address concerns in Washington regarding the amount of aid already provided, is unfair.
“It's not fair, It's not just, but it's an imperfect world,” he said. “If the current president of the United States feels that he, for the continuance of military assistance, needs this investment agreement, so be it.”
On the frontlines, where his brother faces a daily barrage from Vladimir Putin’s army, Pidgayniy said news of the deal would not register to any great extent.
He also remained sceptical about whether the agreement would have real substance.
“I'm a lawyer by education, and I know that it's one thing to sign the contract and a very different thing to execute it,” he said.
“The current White House administration’s approach to diplomacy is unpredictable and known for breaking rules.
“Maybe it will be a very good deal for my country or it will be signed and there will be meetings and meetings with no real [substance].”
Konstantin Batotskiy, a political consultant with expertise in Ukraine’s energy markets, believes the agreement is superficial.
“The last geological research we had in Ukraine was conducted during the Soviet era, a long, long time ago,” he said.
“The idea for this minerals deal came from US Senator [and Trump supporter] Lindsey Graham [who] has the reputation of a strong supporter of Ukraine.
“The agreement was his proposal for Ukrainians to try to build a bridge with Trump because there was a bad history of relations stretching back to 2019 when Trump asked Zelenskyy to pursue [Joe] Biden’s son.”
Batotskiy suggested that the deal failed to understand the differences in the two countries' approaches to natural resources.
“It's all based on faith,” he added. “We have a different legal system from Britain and the United States. Even if you own a piece of land, everything that is [underneath] doesn't belong to you; it belongs to the nation of Ukraine.
“You must have a special agreement with the government [to extract it].”
Although Ukraine has a long history of coal mining and uranium extraction, many of the country's other raw materials buried in its soil have not been fully explored.
The complex and costly processes involved in mining minerals like zinc, cobalt and graphite have prevented the nation from cashing in on these resources. Only relatively recent demand due to modern products like mobile phones and electric vehicles has pushed the prices up to a level where exploration becomes viable.
American interest in Ukrainian minerals stems from a desire to reduce reliance on China. For the past quarter of a century, China has established control of these resources in countries like Democratic Republic of the Congo and the processes in its vast domestic facilities. According to the Geological Investment Group, China controls three-quarters of rare earth deposits worldwide.
“Americans are obsessed with industry [at the moment],” Batotskiy added. “They want lots of factories and assembly lines that just belong to them.
“But it’s just words. I would believe that the Americans had a real interest in all these metals if they actually built a few factories first and started to produce iPhones in America, then they would need something.
“This agreement is just some piece of paper to satisfy Trump. Ukraine doesn't [take] this minerals [deal] seriously because it will take billions of investment to extract them and the best miners of rare earth materials in the world are not the Americans, they are the Chinese.”
English (US) · 