Hundreds are dead in Spain's floods. Scientists see a connection to climate change

A man walks through a debris-covered street after flash floods hit eastern Spain on October 30, 2024. Climate scientists say global warming makes extreme rain events like it more likely. David Ramos/Getty Images hide caption

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David Ramos/Getty Images

At least 205 people are dead, and dozens remain missing after flood waters and mud swept through towns and cities in Spain’s east.

It’s one of the most deadly weather events in modern Spanish history, and climate scientists see a connection to human-caused global warming.

Climate change made this week’s intense rainfall about 12% heavier and twice as likely, according to a rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution, an international network of scientists who assess the impact of climate change on major weather events.

“There is a clear climate change footprint on events like this one,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA who was not involved in the analysis, writes in an email.

For decades, climate scientists have warned that global warming, which is primarily caused by humans burning oil, gas and coal, would cause severe deluges.

An atmosphere made hotter by burning fossil fuels can hold more water vapor, which can make downpours more intense. The world is now at least 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than it was during the 1800s. Climate research finds a 1.3 degree temperature increase means the atmosphere can hold about 9% more moisture.

In places like Chiva, a town near Valencia, a year’s worth of rain fell in just eight hours, according to Spain’s meteorological agency.

“One of the clearest near-term consequences of global warming, aside from rising temperatures themselves, is an increase in the most extreme rain events,” Swain writes.

Spain’s floods also have a likely climate connection to superhot oceans, scientists say. Climate change is the main driver of record-breakingly hot oceans. When ocean waters are hotter, storms can suck up additional moisture.

An analysis from Climate Central, a nonprofit research group, finds that global warming likely increased temperatures in the part of the Atlantic Ocean where most of the moisture contained in the storm originated.

“The devastating floods in Spain are the latest example of the type of extreme climate events that scientists have been warning us about,” writes Rebecca Carter, director of climate adaptation and resilience at the nonprofit World Resources Institute, in an email.

She writes that the floods highlight the need to increase early warning systems, to get people out of harm’s way quickly. She writes: “As the climate continues to be destabilized, no place can count on being spared from these types of unprecedented disasters.”