How President Trump has reshaped U.S.-Israel relations

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With Israel's prime minister at the White House Monday, former peace negotiator Aaron David Miller speaks with NPR's Leila Fadel about the ways President Trump has reshaped U.S.-Israel relations.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

For more on the relationship between the U.S. government and the Israeli government, we've called Aaron David Miller. He is a former Middle East negotiator who advised secretaries of state in both Republican and Democratic administrations. Now he is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Good morning and welcome back to the program.

AARON DAVID MILLER: Good morning, Leila. It's great to be here.

FADEL: How would you sum up the current state of affairs between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu?

MILLER: Look, you know, no meeting is determinative, right? This is...

FADEL: Right.

MILLER: ...The sixth meeting for an Israeli prime minister in the first year of Presidents - President Trump's term. I think you're dealing with two leaders who frankly don't trust one another. They probably don't like each other. They're both sort of adept at the art of the con. They're both very skilled politicians. And I think underneath the handshakes and the smiles, there are real tensions. Bottom line here, Leila, is that they need one another. Trump needs Netanyahu to ensure that his hopes and aspirations on Gaza, Israeli-Saudi normalization don't crater. And Trump is needed by Netanyahu because the prime minister is under tremendous pressure politically. And next year - this year, actually, in a few days - 2026 is going to be an election year, and he needs Donald Trump, not as a passive bystander but as an active proponent, as he has done in pushing a pardon in Netanyahu's reelection. So I imagine this meeting will go well. Announcements - maybe on the Board of Peace, maybe not till mid-January.

FADEL: How much does the sort of divisions within the MAGA movement factor into this meeting on Israel, specifically, where we've seen riffs over whether the U.S. should continue to send aid or not?

MILLER: Yeah. I mean, I think this is through a critically - critical variable in analyzing why Donald Trump has been able to do what none of his predecessors, Republican or Democrat. And I toss in two administrations I didn't work for, Obama and Biden. Donald Trump has talked to Israel in a way no Israeli prime minister has ever been talked to.

FADEL: Interesting

MILLER: He's pressured him in accepting the 20-point plan. And I think this is a function of the fact that Donald Trump owns the Republican Party, and in a way, the MAGA outliers sort of reinforce the fact in creating some reinforcement for Trump's pressure campaign. Add to that mainstream Democrats who are alienated from the Israelis and the Israeli public, which appears to be souring on some of Israeli policies in the wake of October 7 in Gaza. And you have an American president who has free range (ph) to really pressure the Israelis, should he choose to do so, than any of his predecessors.

FADEL: You know, though, we've been in the first phase of the Gaza deal for a while now, and even though we've been calling it a ceasefire, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since the start of this ceasefire, according to health authorities there. And there's no movement to the second phase so far. Do you think Trump could or will lean harder on Netanyahu to move this peace deal forward that his administration has touted?

MILLER: I think he'll try, and I think it's clear to me, not surprisingly, that Phase 2 is not yet ready for prime time. Remember, it's not just one hand clapping, Leila. We've got Hamas - right? - and Hamas...

FADEL: Exactly.

MILLER: ...Retains Ran Gvili, the last deceased hostage. Hamas is not going to demilitarize easily. In Northern Ireland, the decommissioning process started in 1998, didn't conclude till 2005, and the IRA was offered a big role - right? - in power sharing. That's not the case, not the plan for Hamas. So I think Trump can press. It just seems there's so much on the president's plate. He's managing the bigger play in Ukraine. He doesn't want a cratering relationship with Netanyahu. And I suspect this one isn't ready for prime time - require a lot more work. 2026 will probably be a year in which a lot of activity happens in the part of Gaza the Israelis control - 58%. But in terms of getting the International Stabilization Force, Arab and Muslim security boots on the ground, in terms of getting functional governance in Gaza, I just don't see it. Gaul was divided into three parts. Gaza is now divided into two. And I suspect that, sadly, unfortunately, for the 2 million Palestinians who are still suffering, that's a reality that may well harden in 2026.

FADEL: How would you evaluate this moment in time when it comes to ending this conflict in the Middle East?

MILLER: Well, we're no closer. I mean, you know, untethered, maybe from a galaxy far, far away are the hopes for a meaningful two-state solution. I just don't see it right now coinciding with the realities back here on Planet Earth. You need the one thing, Leila, that's been missing, and there's no evidence that it's there, and that is leaders, leaders who are masters of their politics in Israel among Palestinians and leaders in Washington, willing to devote the time, the attention and the focus on one of the world's most intractable problems.

FADEL: Aaron David Miller with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thank you so much for your time and your insights.

MILLER: Thanks for having me.

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