How Kamala Harris Can Sharpen Her Economic Case

1 month ago 10

The Kamala Harris-Tim Walz campaign should take a moment to celebrate but should not bask in the afterglow too long. Future interviews, upcoming campaign rallies, and a potential second debate will demand her to continue to refine her policy platform as well as defend her record. Donald Trump and his supporters are not entirely wrong that Harris was not pushed on some areas of vulnerability during the debate. These weaknesses have to do with concerns over a potential tax on unrealized capital gains; accusations over price gouging in groceries, where profit margins are only 1.5%; the likely inflationary $25,000 first time home-buyer subsidies, and highly unpopular, largely unsuccessful current antitrust policies.

Harris should continue to sharpen her defense of the Biden-Harris Administration economic and immigration performance. Using her solid record to mount an offensive against Trump and the falsehoods he continues to spread, here’s how Harris can turn both issues to her advantage.

The economy

While Harris can claim the advantage over Trump when she touted her “opportunity economy” agenda against his far less developed policy proposals, the VP seemed to dodge moderator David Muir’s opening question, “do you believe Americans are better off than they were four years ago?”

The answer Harris should have given was a resounding “Yes! Americans are better off than they were four years ago.” She could have paired that response with simple, factual explanations to the American people about inflation. As economist Ed Yardeni said on CNBC this morning: “Inflation data is falling on the right course and the economy is more resilient than people expected. The survey data is more negative than the real data with GDP running at 2.5% than the real data. Initial unemployment is running very low. Retail sales and personal income will surprise to the upside. Real wages can only be up with productivity doing well.”

The Biden-Harris Administration has led an economic renaissance after the pandemic that has led to real GDP growth nearly a full percentage point above Trump. The duo still outperforms the Trump economy if you control for the effects of COVID-19 in 2020 by only considering the first three years of each administration’s term.

Job growth also accelerated under Biden-Harris with 15.8 million jobs gained compared to Trump, who lost 2.7 million jobs. Even controlling for the pandemic, Biden-Harris outpaced the former president by 3 million jobs, including 50% more manufacturing jobs than the former President. The continuation of a historically low unemployment rate reflects that success.

Under Biden-Harris, fiscal deficits were cut by more than a third, compared to Trump, and slowed the issuance of total public debt. Again, the trend holds after accounting for the pandemic.

Despite the difficult fiscal situation, Biden-Harris marshaled historic legislation through Congress investing more than $1.1 trillion into U.S. infrastructure, advanced technology, domestic manufacturing, state and local workforces, as well as economic and energy security and innovation. Trump promised to pass a major infrastructure package but never delivered.

Harris also missed opportunities to counter Trump’s attacks over inflation. Biden-Harris brought inflation down approaching the Fed’s long-term two percent target from multi-decade highs. Wage growth has been corrected to now outpace inflation, with real incomes having grown at a steady rate of 5.1% since February 2020. Virtually all commodities are far down with post-COVID-19 supply chain snags cleared.

Thanks to record U.S. oil production under Biden-Harris as the world’s largest producer, prices are far down at the 20-year average of $65 per barrel with retail gas prices also down, despite conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. At 13.4 million barrels per day, the current Administration is producing domestically one million more than the Trump peak of ~12 million barrels per day, and 30% more than the runner-up producers, Russia or Saudi Arabia. The energy boom extends to natural gas and renewable energy production which have also notched record rates. A 50% increase in permits for oil and gas production on federal lands provides an additional boon.

Immigration

Harris smartly trounced Trump over killing the proposed bipartisan border legislation this spring but did not offer any real defense of her own handling of the border, leaving an opening for Trump to attack, claiming the border was the most secure under his presidency and suggesting Harris leave the debate to issue an executive to stem the flow of immigrants.

Harris should have seized the moment. The Biden-Harris Administration did take executive action to secure the border after Trump blocked the bipartisan bill, and in the months since, border encounters have matched Trump’s numbers. Furthermore, Harris could have pointed out that border encounters were on average 80,000 higher per year under Trump compared to President Obama.

Most Americans do not align with Trump’s extremist ideology on immigration. Many Democrats and Republicans recognize that the economic and societal benefits of immigration far outweigh any costs imposed and do not “[poison] the blood of our country,” as Trump likes to say.

As Ronald Reagan said, “More than any other country, our strength comes from our own immigrant heritage and our capacity to welcome those from other lands.” Immigrant founders or co-founders are responsible for half of all startups with revenues of $1 billion or greater and contribute one-in-four STEM workers to the country’s labor force. Immigrants or children of immigrants are responsible for founding 45% of Fortune 500 companies.

Nor do immigrants take jobs from Black workers or any native-born workers for that matter. Biden-Harris have led unemployment of Black workers to an all-time low and seen over half of all job gains going to native-born workers, while more jobs remain unfilled.

Kamala Harris’ supporters and advisors are right to be ecstatic over her strong presidential debate performance. But amid the celebration, they should be prepared for renewed attacks over the economy and immigration as Trump seeks to regain the offensive. These issues above speak to her comparative strengths, Harris must prepare to clarify these points with punchy facts to contrast and correct Trumpaganda economic proclamations.

This year, TIME has identified roughly 40 movie sequels which bested their own originals. One of these return hits is this summer’s blockbuster Disney film Inside Out 2. Now that the Harris campaign has asked for a second debate, with preparation, the Vice President can turn Trump’s policies inside out—to her advantage.

Read Entire Article