How Israel is trying to generate civil strife in Lebanon

Beirut, Lebanon – On October 14, Israel killed 22 people in the northern Lebanese village of Aitou in an air attack.

Israel claimed it struck a “Hezbollah target” but the attack on a predominantly Christian town has made many wonder if Israel is expanding its war to chase down Hezbollah members and mainly Shia Hezbollah supporters wherever they may have fled to.

“I can only guess Israel’s motives, but obviously they are trying to make the Shia community toxic by trying to isolate them completely,” said Michael Young, a Lebanon expert for Carnegie Middle East Center.

Fragile system

Lebanon runs a confessional system, with political posts reserved for members of specific religious sects. 

The fragile system has been historically exploited by regional states for their own geopolitical goals, by dividing the country’s political factions and religious communities.

In addition, each religious community typically lives in relatively segregated areas and neighbourhoods in Lebanon – largely an outcome of previous violent conflicts that degenerated into sectarian violence and led to the mass displacement of communities.

The attack on Aitou harks back to Lebanon’s 15-year civil war (1975-1990) when the country got dragged into the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict and descended into multi-faceted fighting.

Now, Israel’s war – ostensibly against Hezbollah – is threatening to destabilise the entire country again as a pattern emerges, beyond the Aitou attack, where Israel attacks neighbourhoods and communities that have absorbed thousands of displaced people.

Analysts believe this trend reflects a sinister motive of collectively punishing Hezbollah’s Shia support base, psychologically tormenting the Lebanese populace and triggering sectarian violence.

“When [Israel] is hitting [these people] in areas that are largely not Hezbollah-controlled, then more and more people from these areas will be reluctant to receive displaced Shia because they fear Israel will attack them,” Young told Al Jazeera.

Lebanese army soldiers stand guard near a site of an Israeli air raid in the Christian-majority region of Aitou in north Lebanon, October 14, 2024. REUTERS/Omar Ibrahim (Reuters)

Psychological warfare?

The terrifying prospect that Israel could continue flattening districts across Lebanon is a clear form of psychological warfare, according to Maha Yahiya, an expert on Lebanon and the director of Carnegie Middle East Center.

“This is a message to Hezbollah and to the broader [Shia] community that says: ‘We will get you wherever you are,’” Yahiya said.

“On the flip side, it is aggravating sectarian tensions and triggering almost panic among the broader Lebanese populace, who are terrified of having neighbours they don’t know and who Israel may decide to target.”

According to Ori Goldberg, an Israeli commentator on political affairs, Israel appears to be applying the same open-ended discourse and military tactics in Lebanon as it has done in Gaza.

“Israel feels like it can target anything it regards as a military position, irrespective of who may be there, just like in Gaza. Just like what we saw in Nabatieh,” he told Al Jazeera.

Nabatieh is a provincial capital in south Lebanon that Israel has indiscriminately carpet-bombed, effectively reducing it to wasteland. On October 16, an Israeli airstrike hit Nabatiyeh’s municipal headquarters, killing 16 people including the mayor.

It was the largest attack on a state building since Israel first escalated its bombing campaign against Hezbollah on September 22.

“[Israel thinks] that if people are near where we’re bombing, we don’t care. That’s their problem,” Goldberg told Al Jazeera.

Aggravating sectarian tensions

Karim Emilie Bitar, a professor of international relations at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut, believes that the areas Israel is hitting outside of south Lebanon do not have any military or strategic importance.

“There seems to be an intention to foster civil strife in Lebanon,” he told Al Jazeera.

“The way we can read these attacks is… that it is a message sent to Christians in particular to be careful and do not welcome these [Shia] refugees.

“If [Israel] continues along this path, then it could lead to a deepening of the fault lines in Lebanon. People will become increasingly cautious, and it could sooner or later provoke serious incidents and civil strife.”

In many predominantly Christian quarters of Beirut, residents and sectarian factions have begun monitoring guests and visitors in their neighbourhood, often doing background checks.

In many cases, displaced people have been prohibited from moving into buildings or evicted from areas they recently moved into, according to Yahiya from the Carnegie Center.

She added that people in various communities are increasingly “terrified” of having neighbours they do not know and who may be targeted by Israel.

“[Israel’s tactics] have created a politics of fear,” she told Al Jazeera.

“And it is stoking sectarian fire by trying to basically make other communities reject the displaced wherever they are.”

epa11660666 Displaced people sit on a street in Beirut, Lebanon, 15 October 2024. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has recorded over 600,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) in Lebanon since the start of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. EPA-EFE/WAEL HAMZEH (EPA)

Grand strategy?

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his intentions known during his televised address to the Lebanese people on October 8, warning that they could face “destruction like Gaza” unless they acted now to “save Lebanon” from Hezbollah.

His remarks indicated that Israel aims to reshape the politics of Lebanon, belying his earlier claims that Israel would launch a limited operation in south Lebanon to allow thousands of displaced Israelis to return to their homes in north Israel across the border.

Goldberg, the commentator from Israel, believes it does not have realistic political objectives in the country.

“What’s worrying is I don’t think there is an end game. Officially, [Israel] wants to establish a 10-km [6.2-mile] buffer, with 7km [4.3 miles] being held by the Lebanese Armed Forces and 3km [1.9 miles] by the Israeli army, but I don’t think that’s credible,” he told Al Jazeera.

Worse yet, Goldberg believes Israel’s government is quite comfortable maintaining an indefinite war on Lebanon, just as it is doing in Gaza.

“Israel wants to bomb,” he said. “In the short term, it has a list of targets and objectives, but the bombing will be endless.

“[Israel] wants to enjoy its aerial superiority and it wants to rain down fire.”