Hormuz dispute clouds Iran peace talks

7 hours ago 3

At the Lake Lucerne summit, U.S. and Iranian officials are trying to keep a shaky peace effort alive after renewed violence and confusion over Hormuz. Former Ambassador Ryan Crocker talks about the need for strategic patience.

PIEN HUANG, HOST:

Strains have already emerged in peace talks between Vice President JD Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker at a mountainside resort in Switzerland today. Iran is insisting on an end to fighting in Lebanon after more Israeli strikes this weekend. And President Trump has posted renewed threats on social media, saying the U.S. will, quote, "hit Iran very hard again" if Iran doesn't restrain its proxies in Lebanon. For more, we've brought in Ryan Crocker. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and was ambassador to six Middle Eastern countries, including Lebanon. Ambassador Crocker, welcome.

RYAN CROCKER: Thank you.

HUANG: What is your read on what can come from these talks?

CROCKER: I think our expectations need to be firmly under control. It's not going to resolve itself in a day or two days or even very likely not in 60 days. So I think the emphasis has to be on stabilizing the ceasefires in the Gulf and in South Lebanon 'cause this is going to be a long haul.

HUANG: I mean, one moment the president says that the deal is on track, and then the next moment the Iranians say that they've closed the strait. What is your take on why the back-and-forth?

CROCKER: Well, I think it reflects the fundamental volatility of the situation, and it also reflects the control the Iranians now have over the strait. They don't have to close the strait. They can just say they closed the strait. And that is going to put international shipping on edge. It's probably going to reduce the flow of traffic through the strait. This war has changed a lot of things, none of them for the better as far as the United States is concerned.

HUANG: The fighting in Lebanon is a recurring roadblock in achieving some kind of peace. Israel and Hezbollah both agreed to, and then they reneged on a ceasefire deal just in the last few days. I'm wondering what negotiators can do if neither of these parties seem interested in a truce.

CROCKER: Well, the MOU is reasonably clear on this. It calls, in its first paragraph, for an immediate and permanent termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and that is unconditional. It means that Hezbollah has to terminate hostilities, and it means Israel has to terminate hostilities. Obviously, Iran has to deliver Hezbollah, and the U.S. has to deliver Israel. This is where it could all fall apart.

HUANG: Regarding the U.S. role here, JD Vance said before he left yesterday that the U.S. would, quote, "just have to manage Israel and Lebanon." Can the U.S. just manage them?

CROCKER: We've got a long, checkered history of dealing with Israel and Lebanon and dealing with adversaries of both the United States and Israel in Lebanon. It's going to take an awful lot of pressure on Israel, and Hezbollah and Iran are going to have to reciprocate. Israel is going to be looking for excuses to continue its campaign in south Lebanon, and we're going to have to exert an unprecedented amount of pressure to prevent that.

HUANG: Now, you've emphasized that long-term stability depends on a sustained dialogue and not just military pressure. What would you advise the president to do right now?

CROCKER: I would advise the president to exert something that is in short supply with him - strategic patience. The Iranians have it in abundance. They will settle in for a long haul here. And there are no quick fixes to this current crisis, not in the Gulf and not with respect to Iran's nuclear capabilities and not respect to south Lebanon. So we need some sustained patience. And again, President Trump is not noted for his sustained patience.

HUANG: At this point, do you think that any of the goals of the war have been met, in your view?

CROCKER: Well, it's kind of hard to keep track of what our goals in the war have been. Clearly, we've done significant damage to Iran's infrastructure, including its military infrastructure. Its surface navy has been virtually obliterated. Its ballistic missile capacity has been significantly reduced. But they have shown an ability - an incredible resilience and ability to keep on fighting.

HUANG: The fighting in Lebanon has killed at least 4,000 people, according to the country's health ministry. And, Ambassador Crocker, you were ambassador to that country many years ago. I'm wondering how you feel watching this war carry on.

CROCKER: It's heartbreaking. It's the Lebanese people who've paid the price. And with more than a million displaced now, the strain on the Lebanese government and the human suffering is just immense. Right now, they need our assistance, and the best way we can deliver that would be through increased assistance to UNHCR for the displaced, again, both for humanitarian and strategic reasons.

HUANG: Ryan Crocker is former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon and is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. Thank you.

CROCKER: Thank you, Pien.

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