Has the U.S. lost the war in Iran?

22 hours ago 2

As both the US and Iran signal a peace deal is near, Robert Kagan, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, says the U.S. will likely come out weaker than before the war.

ADRIAN FLORIDO, BYLINE: The U.S. and Iran are signaling that the two countries are close to reaching a deal to end the war. Earlier today, during a visit to India, Secretary of State Marco Rubio commented on the developments.

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MARCO RUBIO: Some progress has been made. Significant progress, although not final progress has been made.

FLORIDO: The details, though, about that progress remain unclear. Today, President Trump posted on social media that, quote, "the negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner" and that "the blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified and signed."

We're joined now by Robert Kagan. He's a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, and he's written multiple articles recently in The Atlantic magazine about the U.S.-Iran War. Welcome, Mr. Kagan.

ROBERT KAGAN: Thank you.

FLORIDO: I want to start with the developments of this weekend. What is your reaction to what we've heard so far from the Trump administration regarding this potential deal with Iran?

KAGAN: Well, I think the administration is going to work very hard now and in the course of the next few days to try to present this as a deal that was successful for Donald Trump. But I think as far as is clear right now, it's pretty much a total victory for Iran and a total defeat for the United States.

FLORIDO: Why is that clear to you?

KAGAN: Well, because first of all, Iran has offered nothing in return for a ceasefire, at least according to what we've heard. They've agreed to talk about their nuclear program, which, of course, is what we've been talking about all this time, but have made no concessions about what they intend to do in a final way. And most importantly - and I think this is what listeners need to focus on - Iran is going to end this war in control of the Strait of Hormuz. There's a lot of talk about, quote-unquote, "reopening the strait," but it will reopen under Iranian control. It'll be under new management, which means that Iran is going to have the capacity to control who gets in, who gets out, when and for how much money. That is a major shift in power in the region. It's a major blow to the United States' position in the region, and it's also a major blow to Israel's security going forward.

FLORIDO: I want to stick with the issue of Iran's nuclear program for just a moment. White House officials have said many times that they started this war to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Again, we don't know what's in this potential deal, but if this deal does not include an ironclad commitment to pause uranium enrichment by Iran, what is the U.S. left with?

KAGAN: Nothing. They're - they left with nothing because the leaders in Iran have been trying to see whether Trump would actually follow through on any of his military threats. And this has been going on now for two months. Trump is continually threatening to wipe out their civilization or take out all their energy, etc. And he's actually done nothing. And for him to now agree to a 60-day ceasefire is effectively to be walking away. And the Iranians can see that, and that's why they haven't made any concessions.

FLORIDO: There are Senate Republicans who are already speaking out about this possible agreement with Iran. Here's North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis speaking on CNN.

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THOM TILLIS: We were told about 11 weeks ago by Hegseth and the Department of Defense that they had obliterated Iran's defenses, and it was just a matter of time before we had the nuclear material. Now we're talking about a posture where we may accept the nuclear material remaining in Iran. How does that make sense at all?

FLORIDO: Robert Kagan, a lot of Republicans have spent years criticizing the Obama administration's deal that he signed with Iran in 2015 over Iran's nuclear program. Trump scrapped that deal. What would you have to see in this deal we're talking about now? Is there anything you could see coming out of this deal that would convince you that maybe the Trump administration has improved on the Obama deal?

KAGAN: Well, if they got agreement from Iran to sort of hand out all of its enriched uranium and to promise not to enrich any further uranium, that would be a victory, but that is not what we're going to get. And I think that it is likely that the deal that Trump comes away with will either be the same or worse than the deal that Obama struck. And that is, again, because Trump evidently wants to quit the war, and the Iranians, therefore, will come out on top.

FLORIDO: And so what would this mean for Iran's status in the region and its ability to wield power effectively?

KAGAN: Well, if and when they ever get to a nuclear weapon, that'll obviously have a major impact. But I think it's important to note that what Iran has already won gives it unbelievable power that it's never had before, not only in the region, but in the world. The control of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran the ability to affect the behavior of every nation in the world that depends on energy supplies from that region, and other commodities for that matter, which means that Iran is going to be calling the shots on a lot of things that goes on in the Middle East, including Israeli behavior. And that's why I think among the biggest losers - and I think we're starting to hear this come out of Israel - is the Israeli government.

FLORIDO: What about the U.S.' power in the region and the perception of U.S. power globally? What's coming out of this war?

KAGAN: Well, I think the world is going to see that the United States, with its unparalleled military, launched a war against a second-rate power, which was severely weakened by a previous conflict, and yet was unable to accomplish its objectives. We're already seeing in the gulf, the Gulf States are now moving toward working out their own agreement with Iran. They don't feel that they can rely on the United States anymore. And America's allies, particularly in Asia, who are heavily dependent on the gulf energy supplies, countries like Japan and South Korea are going to see that the United States is now unable to protect that source of supply, which means that the United States has essentially put them in a position of real jeopardy.

FLORIDO: You recently wrote that, quote, "the global adjustment to a post-American world is accelerating." "America's once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties," you said. What about this war has led you to that conclusion that this is just a signal of the U.S.' overall decline in power globally?

KAGAN: Yeah, sure, because the loss in the Iran conflict is only coming on top of much larger changes that the United States has made under the Trump administration and, above all, the fundamental abandonment of our allies, particularly in Europe, but also increasingly in Asia. We're pulling troops out of Europe. We've made it clear that we won't protect our European allies, even though we're supposed to under our NATO alliance. And that is forcing countries to change, to arm themselves, to look for alternative means of security, which is going to, and already has, significantly diminished American influence in the international system.

FLORIDO: I've been speaking with Robert Kagan. He is a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. Robert Kagan, thanks for joining us.

KAGAN: Thank you.

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