'H-1B fee is working’: US investor reacts to reduced visa filings, says ‘top talent is not talented’

A debate over the United States’ $100,000 H-1B visa fee took a turn after early figures suggested the policy may have reduced visa filings enough to cut government revenue by about $20 million.The numbers were shared by Connor O’Brien, an economic policy researcher at the Institute for Progress who focuses on high-skilled immigration and innovation policy.“85 people have paid the $100,000 H-1B fee so far, totaling $8.5 million in revenue. But fee revenue from H-1B apps abroad is down $28 million,” O’Brien wrote in a post on X.He added: “So the fee, justified by a paper claiming the revenue-maximizing fee was >$100,000! appears to have lost the government $20 million.”

The figures come months after the administration of Donald Trump introduced a one-time $100,000 fee last September on certain H-1B visa petitions amid the tightening of immigration policies affecting foreign workers. The previous fees were $2,000 to $5,000.Experts questioned whether the measure has reduced government income. American investor and political commentator Nathan Halberstadt claimed that the policy is achieving its intended effect.

Halberstadt responded to O’Brien on X, writing: “In other words, the H-1B fee is working. Volumes are down. It turns out the H-1B ‘top talent’ isn’t actually talented enough to be worth a modest fee."Nathan added: "And Connor, your math is silly. Nobody is pearl-clutching $ 20 million in uncaptured fees while newcomers continue to commit $ billions in fraud and to shred social trust/cohesion. In the end, these visa programs will need to be wound down.”Halberstadt is an American writer, investor and commentator involved in conservative policy and technology circles.

The policy debate comes alongside new research examining how visa costs influence employer demand for foreign workers.

Impact of $100,000 H-1B visa fee

A working paper titled The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand by economist George Borjas and published by the National Bureau of Economic Research studied data from H-1B visa petitions, employer filings and the American Community Survey.The research looked at the period from September 21, 2025 to February 15, 2026 and compared it with the same period the previous year.Borjas found that the number of H-1B petitions for workers applying from outside the United States fell during that time.“Because fewer such petitions were filed, US Citizenship and Immigration Services collected about $28 million less in fees,” Borjas wrote.The study compared that decline with money collected under a separate presidential proclamation linked to visa restrictions.

During the same period, those payments brought in about $8.5 million.Researchers also looked at wages. After comparing workers with similar education, age, occupation, gender and location, the study found that H-1B workers earn about 16 per cent less than similar US-born employees.Because the average salary in the data is above $100,000 a year and the visa can last up to six years, the study estimated that companies may save nearly $100,000 in labour costs for each worker compared with hiring an American employee.The research also looked at a policy idea where companies would pay a large one-time fee for H-1B visas.The simulations suggested that fees of about $150,000 to $200,000 could still be charged without greatly reducing demand because many companies apply for the limited number of visas each year.However, the study said higher visa costs could change hiring patterns, as companies may prefer workers whose skills and productivity justify the higher fee.