Gold breaks new record on Greenland tariff threats, with forecast of $7,000 on the cards

Gold prices climbed to a fresh record above $4,800 on Wednesday, extending a sharp rally as investors sought safety amid tariff threats from the White House and renewed concerns about a global trade war.

The surge has reignited debate among investors over how much prices can rise after a blockbuster year for the bullion.

Following a record-breaking 2025, gold has entered 2026 with momentum intact as geopolitical tensions, falling real interest rates and efforts by investors and central banks to diversify away from the dollar reinforce its role as the world's ultimate haven, analysts said.

Forecasts are increasingly bullish. Analysts surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association expect prices to rise above $5,000 this year, citing expectations of lower U.S. real rates, continued Federal Reserve easing and sustained central-bank diversification away from the dollar.

Julia Du, a senior commodities strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, sees gold prices pushing as high as $7,150.

"Gold remains the headline story after a record-breaking 2025," the LBMA said in its forecast survey.

Goldman Sachs also reiterated its bullish stance, calling gold its highest-conviction trade, driven by a shift in who is buying the metal.

"Gold remains our highest conviction long or base case, the price by the end of this year is $4,900," said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

He noted that central bank purchases drove gains in 2023 and 2024, while the rally accelerated in 2025 as private-sector demand increased.

"Private investors are starting to diversify into gold through different channels," he said in a media briefing on Wednesday, with ETF inflows offering one clear evidence of that shift, though it's difficult to separate retail demand from institutional flows. 

According to Goldman Sachs, demand largely came from private wealth firms, asset managers, hedge funds and pension investors.

For many gold bulls, geopolitics remains the defining backdrop. Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said the current cycle does not resemble a speculative peak. She expects gold prices to reach $5,400 this year.

"Last year was historic, sort of a once in a hundred year event across precious metals, where silver basically doubled," she said.

"Gold was up 60%, so we won't see a repeat of those gains, but $5,400 is a solid 30% up year on year," she said. "This is a secular trade. This isn't a commodity blowoff top."

Geopolitical tensions, she argued, are not fading into the background. Recent flashpoints, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and Washington's push to assert control over Greenland, have only deepened investors' flight to gold.

"You're entering a world where ... there is a strong demand to secure critical metals, critical commodities in this decade," Shiels said.