Global Oil Prices Rise as Fresh U.S. Strikes on Iran Cast Shadow Over Trump's Promised Peace Deal

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Global oil prices touched $100 a barrel again Tuesday morning, marking renewed instability after the U.S. launched fresh strikes against Iran. 

The price of Brent crude eased back down to around $99, still showing a rise from the dip to $96 a barrel the previous day, when hopes were high after President Donald Trump had promised a U.S.-Iran peace deal was on the horizon.

But the fresh strikes—and Iran’s stern verbal warning that followed—have unsettled markets once more.

The U.S. military on Monday night announced it had carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran against targets including missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines. 

“U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing cease-fire,” said spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins.

While there was no immediate direct comment from Trump on the strikes, the President posted an image of himself with the slogan “Peace Through Strength" Tuesday morning.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have addressed the U.S. strikes, warning that they reserve the right to retaliate against any actions Iranian officials deem to be in violation of the fragile cease-fire.

The warning followed reports from Iranian state media stating that American fighter jet strikes on Iranian boats killed four Revolutionary Guard troops.

The latest hostilities have dampened hope that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which around a fifth of global oil supply passes, could soon reopen.

Iran’s continued choke hold over the passage is strangling international markets and prompting concern that a global food crisis is incoming.

After weeks of stalled talks between Washington and Tehran—with rows over the management of the Strait and Iran’s nuclear capabilities remaining key stumbling blocks—Trump said over the weekend that the peace deal had been "largely negotiated."

Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency rejected this framing, labeling Trump’s claim that a deal was close as "incomplete ⁠and inconsistent ‌with ​reality."

On Monday, Trump doubled down on one of his core arguments, stating that Iran’s enriched uranium must be “immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed."

Another option, he said, was for the “nuclear dust” to be “destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event,” in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Tehran has repeatedly rejected demands to surrender its nuclear enrichment capabilities.

According to Iranian state media, Tehran is also pushing for the release of frozen overseas assets as part of any agreement.

As tensions reach a high once more amid fresh strikes and disputed claims over the progress of peace talks, a clear path to a durable end to the war remains elusive.

Rubio says U.S.-Iran peace deal could take days to secure

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that negotiations with Iran could still “take a few days,” tempering earlier expectations of a quicker resolution to the conflict.

While “progress” can be made in peace negotiations in Qatar, key details between the involved parties need to be resolved, he added, referring to reports that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf traveled to Qatar Monday to take part in talks regarding an end to the war.

“I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document. So it’ll take a few days,” he said, insisting that Trump is “either going to make a good deal or no deal.”

Rubio did not comment directly on the latest U.S. strikes but reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened “one way or the other.”

“The straits need to be open, unimpeded, without tolls. And obviously that needs to happen immediately as soon as anything’s agreed to,” he argued.

Iran has repeatedly floated the idea of introducing a toll system for ships passing through the Strait and last month established a new administrative account tied to management of the waterway.

The concept has been widely rejected by U.S. and global officials, including the U.K.’s Foreign Secretary, who argue Tehran should not have authority over the crucial shipping route and that free-flowing trade via the Strait is a non-negotiable must.

Iran delivers new warnings to U.S. in light of strikes

“The IRGC warns against any violation of the cease-fire by the aggressive U.S. army and considers the right to retaliate as legitimate and definitive,” said the IRGC as it warned the U.S. against further action,  according to a statement carried by state media.

The IRGC also claimed its air defense systems had targeted a drone and a fighter jet that it said had entered Iranian airspace.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly since he succeeded his father, warned Tuesday that the U.S. won't have safe havens for its bases in the Middle East.

“The hand of time does not turn back, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases,” he said, in a statement reported by Fars news. “America will no longer have a safe haven for mischief and the establishment of military bases in the region.”

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