Global markets keep shrugging off shocks. Here's what could break that streak, according to HSBC

2 weeks ago 31

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. NYSEGlobal markets have shrugged off a barrage of shocks in recent years, but HSBC sees several developments that could eventually end that streak.The key risks include higher corporate taxes, a renewed rise in private-sector debt and a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds. A withdrawal of perceived central-bank support for markets could also test that resilience, the bank said in a note Monday.While the "removal of central bank puts" could have an adverse impact, HSBC said, such a scenario is difficult to imagine, particularly in the U.S. where equities, wealth effects and financial conditions have become quite intertwined.Given the outsized weight of the U.S. in global equities and credit, the greatest risks lie there, HSBC said. Higher corporate taxes that squeeze profitability could weigh on markets, while inflation falling close to or below target could restore the negative stock-bond correlation — rise in bond prices when stocks fall.That, in turn, could encourage investors to reduce equity allocations and put pressure on valuations.A renewed rise in private-sector leverage could also make the economy a...

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