From Nvidia earnings to trade war tape bombs, a simple strategy could be this week's best bet

There's a popular expression on Wall Street: KISS, which stands for, Keep It Simple, Stupid. Amid a torrent of complicated cross currents, it might present the best approach to trading this week's news. More catalysts mean more potential for big moves, and if options are cheap they may present the better way to make a directional bet. At the moment, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) call options look like a better way to be long in this market. Here's why:Let's start with Treasuries. The 30-year rate is at the highest level in 20 years. This was enough for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to try to manipulate the long end of the curve with the "Treasury twist," buying back longer maturity debt financed with shorter-term debt. That worked for about a day. The 10-year (the rate he looks at most) dipped to roughly 4.64%, then climbed right back, finishing the week at 4.73%. This is the highest of the post-GFC era. Rising discount rates are not just a headache for government finances; they're a headwind for every long-duration asset. Of course, that cuts both ways. I believe more concrete yield curve manipulation could occur via the Federal Reserve if 10-year yields approach 6%, but oth...