French government could fall this week – Politico

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier could face a no-confidence vote by Wednesday in a budget dispute involving social spending, Politico EU has reported.

President Emmanuel Macron appointed Barnier in September, angering the leftist New Popular Front (NPF), which he used to sideline the right-wing National Rally (RN) in this summer’s snap parliamentary election. The macron-backed minority government has clung to power by playing both sides against each other ever since.

However a forthcoming budget has forced the the parliamentary factions into open conflict. Barnier’s proposed budget is “a punishment” that will make the French poorer, and the right-wing RN will vote against the government “barring a last-minute miracle,” party leader Jordan Bardella told RTL radio on Monday.

France is the second-largest economy in the Euro zone but has “a mountain of debt,” according to Politico, while “its government hasn’t been this fragile nor its parliament so fractured for a generation.”

The government needs the National Assembly to approve next year’s social security budget to avoid both a political and a financial crisis. France’s deficit is supposed to hit 6.1% of GDP next year. Barnier’s original proposal was to cut spending by €40 billion ($41.87 billion) and raise €20 billion in taxes. His problem, according to Politico, is that both options for passing the budget require cooperation from RN.

The right-wing party is driving a hard bargain. Their “red lines” include scrapping a proposed electricity tax hike and planned delay to annual inflation adjustment to pensions. NR also wants Paris to “drastically cut” state-funded healthcare for illegal immigrants and negotiate with the EU to reduce France’s financial contributions to the bloc.

Prominent NR lawmaker Marine Le Pen also wants a symbolic win, according to Politico, because Barnier has presented his concessions as unrelated to their demands.

“They want our votes, but not our faces associated with them,” she told AFP over the weekend. She called Barnier’s attitude in the talks “extremely close-minded and sectarian” and said he had until Monday to meet NR’s demands or face a no-confidence vote.

Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin appeared to dismiss the idea of any concessions, however. “There is no way to guarantee the restoration of state finances if we go further than we have already,” he told Le Parisien in an interview published on Sunday. “Compromise is not blackmail, there cannot be an ultimatum.”

Should Barnier manage to secure NR’s support and cling on to power for a few more weeks, Politico notes, he will face the same problem later this month, when the general budget for 2025 comes up for consideration.