Marine Le Pen is set to learn her political fate. Her appeal trial, opening in Paris on Tuesday and set to run for a month, could dash her hopes of standing in the 2027 presidential election, for which she is currently the frontrunner.
The case centres on the long-running scandal over fictitious National Rally (RN) party assistants at the European Parliament. In March 2025, Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison – including two years in custody – fined €100,000, and given a five-year ban from public office with immediate effect.
If the Paris appeal court upholds the ruling, it would send shockwaves through the far-right RN party, which has led opinion polls for several months.
Financial damage to the European Parliament
In the first ruling, judges found the three-time presidential candidate (2012, 2017 and 2022) guilty, along with 24 former MEPs, parliamentary assistants, an accountant, and the National Rally as a legal entity, of operating a “system” between 2004 and 2016 using European Parliament funds to pay party employees.
The Paris criminal court assessed the financial damage to the European Parliament at €3.2 million, after deducting €1.1 million that had already been reimbursed by some of the defendants.
Read moreWhat does the EU embezzlement trial mean for Le Pen and the French far right?
Only 12 of those convicted in March 2025, along with the party itself, have appealed. They include Perpignan Mayor Louis Aliot, MP Julien Odoul, MEP Nicolas Bay, and senior party figures Wallerand de Saint-Just and Bruno Gollnisch.
Judges ruled that the case did not stem from “administrative errors” or confusion over European rules but amounted to “embezzlement as part of a system designed to reduce the party’s operating costs”.
Renewed attacks on the judiciary
As in the first trial, Le Pen plans to plead her innocence on appeal and to argue that the case is politically motivated, aimed at preventing her from running for president.
“The trial judge wrote that the goal was not only to stop me from running but also from being elected,” Le Pen told the economic weekly La Tribune Dimanche on December 28. “There was a time when people were shot. Today, you are shot judicially. It means political death.”
Since the verdict was handed down, Presiding Judge Bénédicte de Perthuis has received death threats and been placed under police protection.
In its ruling, the court cited Le Pen’s refusal to acknowledge the facts, the seriousness of the offences and the risk of reoffending to justify the sentence's severity.
The judges also defended the immediate enforcement of her ban from office, saying it was necessary to ensure that elected officials “do not benefit from preferential treatment incompatible with public trust in political life”.
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© France 24
08:12
Allegations of US interference
In December, Germany’s Der Spiegel reported that Washington had considered imposing sanctions on the judges who convicted Le Pen. US President Donald Trump had previously criticised the ruling, calling for Le Pen’s “liberation” and dismissing the case as a “witch hunt”.
“If such actions were confirmed or implemented, they would constitute unacceptable and intolerable interference in our country’s internal affairs,” said Peimane Ghaleh-Marzban, president of the Paris criminal court, on January 6.
He pointed to recent US sanctions targeting judges abroad, including a French judge at the International Criminal Court involved in the arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
France’s top prosecutor, Rémy Heitz, later played down the claims, saying there was “nothing tangible” at this stage to suggest interference in the appeal proceedings and dismissing the reports as “press rumours”.
The US State Department also denied the allegations, with Under Secretary Sarah B. Rogers calling the reported leak “stale and false”.
The RN dismissed what it described as a “rumour spread by a hostile media outlet”, arguing that the Paris court president’s remarks risked giving credibility to a “fake news story” and amounted to undue pressure on appeal judges.
Ruling expected this summer
The appeal court’s decision is expected by the summer of 2026. If Le Pen is acquitted, she would be free to run in the 2027 presidential election. If the conviction and ban are upheld, she will be barred from standing.
She could still take the case to the Court of Cassation, France's highest court. Its president, Christophe Soulard, has said the court would aim, “if possible”, to rule before the presidential election.
A third scenario is possible: Le Pen could be convicted again but without a ban from office, or with a shorter period of ineligibility. She would then be legally able to run but politically weakened by a criminal conviction.
In that case, pressure could grow for her to step aside in favour of National Rally president Jordan Bardella, 30, who is increasingly viewed as a leading contender for 2027. A poll published in late November put Bardella ahead of all potential rivals in a hypothetical presidential race.
This article was translated from the original in French by Mehdi Bouzouina.
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