Five nations on edge as Trump administration threatens military action and intervention

US President Donald Trump wants to take control of Greenland from Denmark (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

It may be hard to believe but Donald Trump has been in office less than a year yet his actions in the first days of 2026 have stunned foreign capitals worldwide, with enemies and alliesracing to recalibrate expectations for the remainder of his term.

That, of course, was almost certainly part of the intent: the lightning US military raid on Venezuela and seizure of president Nicolas Maduro was intended not just to abruptly reset relations with that nation. The following days have seen a flurry of presidential comments warning other nations – most specifically Colombia and Cuba.

Particularly alarming for Europe in general and Denmark in particular is the stepping up of rhetoric over US interest in Greenland by Trump and those he surrounds himself with – effectively threatening the seizure of territory administered by a European NATO ally.

Trump has also threatened military action on Nigeria and Iran, the former over alleged atrocities against Christians and the latter over a tough crackdown on protests.

The Trump administration’s moves were initially signalled at the start of December in a new national security strategy that also tore up decades of diplomatic norms by pledging to work with Right-wing parties to bring them to power in Europe

Supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro gather during a demonstration in Caracas (Image: Anadolu via Getty Images)

Even more outrageous – particularly in the eyes of more traditional foreign and US diplomats – has been the explicit tying together of business, mineral, energy and real-estate interests to almost all US-linked negotiations, including potential peace deals in war-torn regions such as Gaza and Ukraine.

It feels an age since the NATO summit in June, when multiple alliance leaders praised Trump for his strength in launching US airstrikes on Iran – hoping his willingness to use military force would be repeated if long-standing US allies were attacked.

There are plenty of indications that this remains the case. US-coordinated globalmilitary drills from the Arctic to the Pacific have put the US military at the heart of defending Europe against Russia, or confronting China in the aftermath of an invasion of Taiwan.

The US has also just signed off on a record weapons deal to that island, prompting a furious response from China, including a simulated blockade and reignited warnings to “reunify” with Taiwan by force – a savage reminder that Beijing and Moscow are as assertive as the Trump administration in military posturing to achieve their ends.

In Europe, that includes the reported deployment of Russian Oreshnik intermediate ballistic missiles into Belarus, now within range to drop their conventional or nuclear warheads on London in eight minutes.

Against that backdrop – and what is seen a quietly rising Russian threat to exposed NATO states in Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltics – the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is increasingly being seen as a harbinger of what a much wider war might look like.

It is a conflict in which Trump has dramatically pulled back US support and continues to push the Kyiv government towards a string of potential peace deals frequently seen as nakedly pro-Russian.

And it is a reminder that many see US president Trump as happier dealing directly with autocrats – although events in Venezuela show how he might also act against them.

Greenland, Cuba, Colombia, Mexico and Canada are all on edge while Russia, Britain and Europe are all watching closely. Here’s what could happen now....

Vladimir Putin meets with Nicolas Maduro at the Kremlin in Moscow last year (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Russia: Possible friend or foe

Trump has seen himself as a potential bridge between the US and the Kremlin since the early 1980s, when he put himself unsuccessfully forward as a young entrepreneur to be President Ronald Reagan’s chief negotiator on atomic arms.

US spies and law enforcement agencies believe the Kremlin ran covert social media campaigns to support Trump’s 2016 election – something he denies vociferously, even if he has repeatedly stressed his ability to “get on” with Putin.

Regarding Ukraine, the Trump administration has ended US financial support, significantly stripped back on supplies of US weapons and briefly cut off vital intelligence support, including airborne early warning and targeting for Kyiv’s long-range weapons.

Most recently, the US appears to have pressured Ukraine to give up territory to the Kremlin in the eastern Donbas that is not yet held by Russia, something Kyiv has repeatedly refused. The Trump administration has periodically pressured the Kremlin by imposing “secondary sanctions” on buyers of Russian oil and gas, and it remains a question whether it will try for further pressure.

How events in Venezuela feed into that is anybody’s guess. The Kremlin has long been a supporter of Maduro’s government and the Hugo Chavez regime that came before, and Russian media reports suggest it may look to support remaining government senior officials to stand up against US pressure – which could yet spark another confrontation.

China: Reveral of Biden's promise over Taiwan

The US administration appears to be still refining its China policy – Trump has made it clear that he hopes to strike not just a trade deal but other broad agreements with his counterpart Xi Jinping, with the two leaders meeting for the first time this presidency in South Korea in late October.

Exactly what they discussed – let alone agreed – remains unclear. Washington and Beijing have clashed heavily over tariffs over the last year, with China imposing draconian restrictions on exports of rare minerals –dramatically impacting US industry, particularly defence firms. In principle, Beijingsupposedly agreed to step back those restrictions in return for lower tariffs, but many companies report supplies are still tight.

As under the Biden administration, Beijing has pushed repeatedly this year for Washington to pull back its support for Taiwan. US officials say China’s massivemilitary build-up is explicitly intended to ensure it is ready to invade the island from 2027, though Chinese officials insist no such decision has been made.

According to some reports, the number of US troops and contractors on Taiwan now exceeds 500, although the Trump administration has returned to traditional US policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether it might defend the island – reversing an explicit Biden administration pledge that the US military would move to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack.

China is another significant supporter of Maduro’s Venezuela. The Chinese military will be watching closely for signs of US tactics and technology. Both the People’s Liberation Army and US military increasingly believe they will fight one day, with the US worried that China’s vast military stockpiles are superior to its own.

Colombia and Cuba: Could be new target countries for US

Speaking late on Sunday, Trump appeared to suggest that Colombia might be next on his list for military intervention, describing its president Gustavo Petro as a “sick man” and accusing him of direct involvement in cocaine smuggling into the US.

That appears largely the same justification used for US actions in Venezuela. And the significant US military force used to support those strikes is relatively well placed for something similar in Colombia, although it has a significantly more powerful military, and Petro has vowed to fight off any such attack. Trump also suggested he believed Cuba’s government was “ready to fall”, something multiple US presidents have sought since Fidel Castro seized power in a Soviet-backed communist revolution in 1959. A covert effort by president John F. Kennedy to land anti-Castro rebels failed disastrously in 1961 at the Bay of Pigs, while a confrontation with the Soviet Union the following year over nuclear missiles on the island almost led to global war.

Cuba’s president Miguel Diaz-Canel was one of the closest partners of Maduro’s Venezuela, and the island might well find itself forced into financial crisis if Venezuela shuts off energy supplies under US pressure. One person likely to be encouraging this is US secretary of state Marco Rubio, who is of Cuban descent and said this week he would be “worried” if he was in Cuba’s government.

Canada and Mexico: Mixed approach to North and South neighbours

America's two closest neighbours have found themselves at odds with the Trump administration over different topics, and the US president identifies Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum as a leader who should learn to “behave” in the aftermath of his Venezuela action.

The White House has warned it could undertake military action within Mexico now it has designated some criminal cartels as terror groups – the same early justification of its initial airstrikes against suspected Venezuelan vessels. Despite talk of making Canada the “51st US state”, Trump has ruled out military action – but its PM Mark Carney is working overtime to build relations with Europe in the event of a confrontation.

Europe: Between several rocks and hard places

This fast-shifting world feels appallingly uncomfortable for Europe. Having questioned the transatlantic security relationship on which the continent has relied since the Second World War, the Trump administration appears bent on tearing up the entire global international law framework within which Europe is viewed as central to the US’s engagement with the world.

European leaders have been desperate to avoid an open spat with Trump, particularly over the handling of Ukraine, and they have increasingly bent over backwards to praise the US leader for awakening their nations to spend more on their own defence.

For all that, the US military remains central to the defence of Europe – as well as the extended nuclear deterrence provided by nuclear weapons on the continent.

Greenland: The crisis that could end Nato

Trump's talk of seizing Greenland began in his first term, when he suggested he wanted to buy the frozen land from its Danish rulers, and was immediately rebuffed.

Shortly before his inauguration last year, he returned more aggressively to the same topic, even suggesting the potential use of force. Such rhetoric has returned this week, particularly from White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, whose wife posted an image of Greenland painted in the US flag’s colours on her social media account.

Speaking to CNN this week, Miller suggested no European countries would fight the US over Greenland – and claimed the Trump administration viewed it as a potential victory in a world where military power overrules international law.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro says he's ready to take up arms in the event of an US invasion (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

Britain: Hope the problem will disappear

PM KEIR Starmer has made it clear he did not speak to Trump before the Venezuela action, while ministers have refused to give a “running commentary” on resulting UKpolicy. That has prompted predictable calls from Labour, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives to take a tougher line, while Reform’s Nigel Farage has suggested the US’s actions are likely illegal under international law yet still desirable if they reinforce deterrence against potential future hostile action from Moscow or Beijing.

Britain later joined European leaders supporting Denmark, but next steps remain unclear. Officials will not want to make themselves hostage to fortune.

Peter Apps’ forthcoming book, The Next World War: The New Age of Global Conflict, is published on January 29