France's President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech next to nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) submarine "Le Temeraire" - S617 during his visit to the Nuclear Submarine Navy Base of Ile Longue in Crozon, north-western France on March 2, 2026. (Photo by Yoan VALAT / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Yoan Valat | Afp | Getty Images
"To be free, one must be feared. To be feared, one must be powerful," French President Emmanuel Macron said during a landmark speech this week on nuclear deterrence.
France is one of only two nuclear powers in Europe and, unlike the U.K., operates a nuclear weapons system entirely independent of the U.S.
As the U.S. and Israel continued to strike Iran, and European leaders appeared divided and sidelined as they scrambled to react, Macron delivered a speech on Monday that was "the most significant update to French nuclear deterrence policy in 30 years," Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, said in a thread on X.
Speaking from a naval base in Brittany in front of a submarine, "Le Témérair," Macron's 45-minute speech laid out what he called a new "forward deterrence" doctrine for France.
Macron said France would increase its number of nuclear warheads and promised more cooperation with European allies that have expressed interest.
He said several European countries — Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark — could take part in exercises of France's air-launched nuclear capacity and France's nuclear bombers could be stationed at their air bases. Macron also said France would stop disclosing the figures for its nuclear arsenal.
"The world is becoming more difficult, and recent events have demonstrated this once again," he said in the speech.
"We must strengthen our nuclear deterrent in the face of the combination of threats, and we must consider our deterrence strategy within the depths of the European continent, with full respect for our sovereignty, through the progressive implementation of what I would call forward deterrence."
Yannick Pincé, associate professor of history at the Université Sorbonne Nouvelle, told CNBC that the speech had to be seen in the context of next year's presidential election, which a far-right National Rally candidate could win.
"He needed to give a politically acceptable speech, to announce measures that would be difficult to reverse next year," Pincé said.
"At the same time, he needed to be credible enough with our allies. He was walking a tightrope, and from my point of view, he succeeded rather well."
An independent nuclear deterrent has been the cornerstone of France's defense strategy for more than 60 years.
But Macron said that the doctrine has to evolve with the threats. In 2020, Macron hinted at a shift when he said that France's "vital interests" - a definition of which remains deliberately vague - now had "a European dimension."
On Monday, Macron said that the years since 2020 "weigh like decades, and the last few months like years."
"Our competitors have evolved, as have our partners," he said, adding "the last few hours" of escalating conflict in the Middle East showed how the world has become "harsher."
Macron mentioned the war in Ukraine and the threat from Russia, but also China and changing defense priorities of the United States.
In line with the historic nuclear doctrine, Macron said that the decision to use force "belongs solely to the President of the Republic," rejecting explicit "guarantees" to partner countries.
Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the speech "remarkable."
'A new nuclear age in Europe'
The speech met the moment of a "new nuclear age in Europe, without abandoning the key pillars of French nuclear strategy or culture," Panda wrote in a blog.
Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow for proliferation and nuclear policy at defense think-tank RUSI, wrote on X that "some allies" would be "dissatisfied" with Macron's refusal to compromise on operational independence.
"Germany will almost certainly have been pushing for more. But joint decision-making was never going to be on the table," she wrote.
Macron said the adapted doctrine was "perfectly complementary to that of NATO, both strategically and technically."
Pincé said that Macron's speech was intended to extend the principles of the Northwood Declaration - an agreement between the U.K. and France signed last year that put cooperation between Europe's two nuclear powers on a more formal footing - to non-nuclear allies.
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) during a meeting on the situation in Ukraine and security issues in Europe at the Elysée Palace on February 17, 2025. (Photo by Tom Nicholson/Getty Images)
Tom Nicholson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
"That's the right idea and really the only possible way," Pincé added.
France and Germany issued a joint statement afterwards pledging "concrete steps this year" such as German participation in French nuclear exercises."
Macron's speech was long planned but was updated to mention "the ongoing war in the Near and Middle East", which Macron said "carries and will continue to carry its seeds of instability and potential conflagration to our borders, with Iran possessing nuclear and ballistic capabilities that have not yet been destroyed."
"Forward deterrence" has raised questions in France around financing, particularly as the country struggles to reduce its debt.
Pincé said Macron had addressed this by saying allies would handle all the non-nuclear aspects of the new system. Pincé called this a "way of sharing the burden" without giving French allies access to anything that would raise questions about their input into French decision-making on nuclear weapons.
Domestic criticism of the speech has been limited. Marine Le Pen, a former presidential candidate for National Rally, and the party's potential next candidate, Jordan Bardella, said in a statement that "France must assume its role as a strategic power in Europe, engage in dialogue with its partners, and contribute to the continent's security."
"It can only do so by retaining exclusive control over its ultimate decision-making," they said.
The question is whether whoever wins the election next year will continue the doctrine as laid out by Macron.
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