Dutch voters head to polls in high-stakes election testing populism’s grip

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The Dutch vote in a national election on Wednesday with a choice between doubling down on the anti-immigration nationalism of populist Geert Wilders, who sank the last conservative coalition after a fractious two years, or a return to the centre.

With nationalist parties topping polls in Britain, France and Germany, the Dutch vote is a test of whether populism can expand its reach or whether it has peaked in parts of Europe.

Only two years ago, Wilders led his party to a stunning first-place finish in the 2023 election and formed an all-conservative coalition – although his partners refused to endorse him as prime minister. He brought it down in June over its refusal to adopt hardline, anti-refugee measures.

PVV ahead but by a narrow margin

Opinion polls show Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) winning, but only by a narrow margin, with the four centrist parties spanning the mainstream right and left all finishing within a few seats of the bleached-blond admirer of US President Donald Trump.

All four, including the centre-right VVD and Christian Democrats, have said they would not enter into a coalition with Wilders and his PVV party, meaning he would likely be blocked from power unless he wins by an unexpectedly wide margin.

Polling stations open as early as 6:30 a.m. in some locations to make it easier for commuters to vote and close at 9 p.m. The first exit poll, which historically has proven accurate, will be released at the close of voting.

Tough coalition talks lie ahead

Dutch elections have become increasingly unpredictable, and building stable coalitions is a fraught task that can take weeks or months.

Opinion polls showed nearly half the electorate was still undecided days ahead of the vote.

Wilders, one of Europe’s longest-serving populist leaders, is renowned for his anti-Islam stance and lives under constant protection due to death threats. He proposes saving funds by denying all asylum requests – which would violate EU treaties – sending male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine, and halting development aid to finance energy and healthcare benefits.

In Volendam, a fishing town near Amsterdam and a Wilders stronghold, some locals are sticking with him even after the last government with his pick for prime minister failed to deliver the EU’s toughest immigration regime or address an acute housing shortage.

“We need to be able to take care of ourselves, and that’s why I’m voting for PVV. Our own people first,” said Jaap Schilder, 40, a fish shop owner and local politician.

The PVV has seen some of its support siphoned away by the Christian Democrats, whose new leader Henri Bontenbal is campaigning on a pledge of government stability and traditional values.

Also on the rise is the centrist D66, which has scored with the positive messaging of its polished frontman Rob Jetten. Jetten promises to build more houses and spend more on education.

Wilders seen first, but support ebbing

Analysts say that Wilders’ ebbing support reflects voter frustration over chaotic infighting in the last coalition. His gushing praise of Trump’s leadership – and the U.S. president’s perceived willingness to test the limits of American democracy – also unsettles some voters.

“I wouldn’t sleep well at night,” said Greta Blakborn, a Volendam pensioner active in the local Labour–Green Left chapter, of a potential Wilders win.

The stated refusal of mainstream parties to enter into an alliance with Wilders may give rise to tactical voting in favour of other conservative parties, political analysts said.

“(Even) if Wilders gets most votes and most seats in parliament, he will probably not get into the coalition,” said Henk van der Kolk, professor of electoral politics at the University of Amsterdam.

(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)

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