Does Imran Khan conviction threaten Pakistan’s PTI-government negotiations?

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Omar Ayub Khan, the leader of the opposition and a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), presented the party’s charter of demands to Ayaz Sadiq, the speaker of the country’s National Assembly, on Thursday, it seemed like the longstanding impasse between the government and the nation’s most popular party might finally be resolved.

However, just 24 hours later, Imran Khan, former prime minister and PTI founder, was sentenced to 14 years in prison by an accountability court on charges of misuse of authority and corruption.

The two sides had initiated negotiations late last year on several contentious issues, including the release of imprisoned PTI leaders – whom the party labels “political prisoners” – and addressing alleged electoral fraud in last year’s controversial elections.

So far, three rounds of talks, moderated by National Assembly Speaker Sadiq, have taken place, with PTI presenting its charter of demand in the last meeting.

The government is expected to respond to those demands within seven days. Yet, Khan’s conviction has reignited concerns that the past three years of political agitation could return, plunging Pakistan back into chaos as the country grapples with security and economic crises.

Aasiya Riaz, joint director of the independent think tank Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), emphasised the importance of continuing dialogue.

“Talks aimed at meaningful outcomes, for the sake of the country, must proceed,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Both sides, the establishment-backed government and the PTI, might revert to their respective tactics of pressure and agitation, respectively. This would lead to chaos and uncertainty, but eventually, they would have to return to the negotiating table,” Riaz added.

Once a favourite, now a pariah

Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He alleged a conspiracy between Pakistan’s powerful military, his political rivals and the United States to remove him from power.

The military, considered Pakistan’s most influential power broker, has directly ruled the country for nearly three of its 76 years since independence. While no prime minister in Pakistan’s history has completed their tenure, three of four military dictators ruled for nearly a decade each.

Khan, who was once thought to enjoy the military’s backing, rose to power in August 2018 before falling out of favour.

Both the US and the military denied his accusations, but his ouster prompted a significant crackdown on PTI, with Khan leading multiple long marches and protests, railing against the establishment, as the military is euphemistically known in Pakistan.

Things came to a head on May 9, 2023, when Khan was briefly detained in the Al-Qadir Trust case – the corruption case in which Khan was convicted on Friday.

His release within two days did little to quell the unrest as PTI supporters rampaged nationwide, targeting public buildings, military offices and installations, including the army headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Thousands of PTI members were arrested, and more than 100 were tried under military laws, with more than 80 sentenced to three to 10 years in prison. Khan also faces charges of inciting mutiny and “terrorism” related to those events.

Negotiation challenges

A poster of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan is pictured on a damaged vehicle after an overnight security forces operation against the supporters of Khan’s PTI party in Islamabad, on November 27, 2024 [Aamir Qureshi/AFP]

Despite setbacks, including Khan’s August 2023 arrest and legal obstacles to PTI’s participation in elections, the party’s candidates secured the highest number of seats in the February polls.

However, with Khan behind bars, the PTI’s leadership staged several protests in Islamabad, pressuring Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to release him.

In November, PTI launched a march to Islamabad, calling it the “final call”. Clashes with law enforcement dispersed the march, and PTI claimed at least 12 of its workers were killed, a figure the government denies.

The PTI, in its written set of demands, has appeared to back down from its insistence on the reversal of election results.

But the party has urged the government to form two separate probe teams, with the mandate to investigate the events of May 9, 2023, and November 26 – the day of the march to Islamabad – last year. It has also continued to press for the release of its “political prisoners”.

Abuzar Salman Niazi, a PTI core committee member, clarified the party’s stance.

“We are not asking for executive orders to release people. We demand an end to judicial interference. If someone is granted bail, they should not be arrested in a new case immediately after,” Niazi told Al Jazeera.

Negotiations will continue, Niazi added, noting that the current demands are just the beginning.

“The government was offered the opportunity to take action on these soft demands. We have other demands going ahead, but these are just to start off, and we want to see government action to initiate these investigations into the May 9 and November 26 incidents,” he added.

Aqeel Malik, the government’s legal affairs spokesperson, said he also remains optimistic about the talks going on, despite Khan’s conviction.

“Court proceedings and dialogue are separate matters. We have seven days to respond to PTI’s demands, and the prime minister has already formed a team to evaluate them,” Malik told Al Jazeera.

Reconciliation or deadlock?

Some analysts believe the PTI’s demands represent a climbdown and offer the government a chance at reconciliation.

Ahmed Ijaz, an Islamabad-based political analyst, noted that the PTI’s omission of grievances about the February 2024 elections could ease negotiations.

“This allows the government to position itself as acting for stability,” Ijaz said.

On the other hand, political commentator Fahd Husain said that the PTI demands appear “fairly impractical” at this stage.

“Both commissions they seek resemble charge sheets, and many related matters are already in court,” Husain told Al Jazeera.

Malik, the government’s legal spokesperson, emphasised the need for clarity in PTI’s demands.

“For instance, the PTI says political prisoners should be released, but they never gave us any list of who do they mean. It appears to be an open-ended thing, including people who were involved in the May 9 or November 26 incidents. So, I think this is at a very nascent stage, but we have seven days to work on them,” he added.

“Positive development”

Over the past three years, Khan has repeatedly accused the military, particularly Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir, of being responsible for his party’s plight.

Despite the military’s insistence that political negotiations are not its domain, a recent meeting between current PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan (no relation to Imran Khan) and Munir in Peshawar has raised eyebrows.

PTI hailed the meeting as a “positive development” and claimed it presented demands to Munir. However, military sources said that the meeting focused solely on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s security.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a province ruled by the PTI, borders Afghanistan and has witnessed a series of attacks that Pakistan blames on armed groups that seek shelter in Afghanistan.

But government officials, who are also part of the negotiating team, lashed out at the “politicisation” of the meeting with the army chief.

“No direct talks are happening outside the government’s negotiating team,” Senator Irfan Siddiqui asserted in a press briefing in Islamabad on Thursday.

Ijaz, the Islamabad-based analyst, however, viewed the meeting as significant.

“If dialogue with the army has begun, then the cases and convictions against Khan become irrelevant,” he said.

The road ahead

But distrust between the PTI, the government and the military could still derail talks, analysts warn.

The consequences of that, PTI’s Niazi says, will leave the party with no other option but to resume its aggressive position and go into agitation mode once again.

“What other option do you think we have, besides going back on streets and protesting? We are trying to hold negotiations keeping the greater good of the country and public in mind, but the onus is on the government. They have to display a bigger role to make the dialogue a success,” the Lahore-based PTI leader said.

However, the Islamabad-based Husain said that the one hope that could “substantially” change things in Pakistan would be signals from Washington, DC, where Donald Trump is expected to take oath as President on Monday.

“If Donald Trump’s administration intervenes, it could help PTI. Otherwise, the party appears to have run out of options,” he said.