CNBC Daily Open: Washington and Tehran both play it cool — but markets can't

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, July 27, 2026.Razieh Poudat | WANA | ReutersHello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open.Markets ended last week convinced that a Strait of Hormuz deal was nearing, while Iran spent the weekend insisting that it is not in the room negotiating with the U.S. Trump told Axios that Washington is "low keying it" and "only semi-negotiating" with Tehran. Iran's foreign minister says there are no direct talks, aside from messages passed through intermediaries. Oman is closing in on an agreement around transit routes, but Tehran has been careful to make it clear that a shipping arrangement is not the same thing as reopening the waterway. Traders now price a roughly 44% chance the Fed raises rates in September, down from 67% a week earlier, per CME's FedWatch tool. But the CPI print due this week, or a collapse of a Hormuz deal, could push those odds right back up. What you need to know todayIranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not in direct negotiations with the U.S. to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying that "messages are being...