CNBC Daily Open: Trump exempting tech from tariffs suggests the importance of consumers

On late Friday, the Trump administration welcomed the weekend in the best way: by announcing that electronics — such as smartphones, computers and semiconductors — will be temporarily exempted from his so-called "reciprocal" tariffs, including the baseline 10% rate on all countries.

That means such products imported from China will apparently not be subjected to the 125% tariff U.S. President Donald Trump slapped on Beijing (a 20% tariff will remain). Apple CEO Tim Cook must be heaving a sigh of relief: The Cupertino-based company manufactures around 80% of iPads and more than half of Mac computers in China, according to an estimate from Evercore ISI.

The news is also a relief for consumers, who desperately need an uplift in mood, based on the findings of the University of Michigan's latest survey. After all, it's not just corporations and importers that are affected by tariffs. Laptop prices have already shot up, according to disgruntled comments on Reddit. The Nintendo Switch 2 preorder was postponed.

Perhaps even Trump is keeping in mind the famous Wall Street adage: Don't bet against the U.S. consumer.

Tech exempted from tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump exempted smartphones, computers, and other tech devices and components from his reciprocal tariffs, according to guidance issued by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection late Friday evening. However, Trump and his aides on Sunday suggested those exemptions would be partially or completely reversed in coming weeks, adding to the confusion over abrupt policy changes.

U.S. markets rise amid a volatile week
U.S. stocks climbed Friday to end the week on a positive note despite heavy market turbulence caused by the Trump administration's tariffs. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained nearly 5% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.3%. Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index popped over 2%, leading gains in the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 added more than 1.6%.

Consumers in the U.S. are really downcast
Consumer sentiment in April sank further, according to the University of Michigan's survey. It posted a mid-month reading of 50.8 — the lowest since June 2022 and the second lowest in the survey's history going back to 1952 — below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. At the same time, respondents' expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March.

'Very close' to a recession
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on Friday told CNBC that he thinks "we're very close, if not in, a recession now." However, Fink said he did not think the U.S. was in a financial crisis and expects "megatrends" like artificial intelligence would persist. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio raised similar alarm bells Sunday, saying the country is "very close to a recession" — but he's "worried about something worse than a recession" if the situation isn't handled well.

Exports from China soar
China's exports jumped 12.4% in March from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms, according to data released by its customs authority Monday. That significantly beats Reuters' poll estimates of a 4.4% growth and is the biggest increase since October last year. Imports fell 4.3% in March from a year earlier, more than economists' expectations of a 2% decline.

Singapore downgrades growth forecast
The Monetary Authority of Singapore on Monday eased its monetary policy for the second time in a row. The central bank also announced a 3.8% year-over-year expansion in Singapore's economy for the first quarter, missing the Reuters poll estimate of 4.3% growth. The country's Ministry of Trade and Industry cut its gross domestic product forecast to 0%-2% for 2025, down from its previous outlook of 1%-3%.

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China urges Trump to correct mistakes and heed 'rational voices' on reciprocal tariffs

China's Commerce Ministry called the U.S. tariff exemptions a "small step" and urged U.S. President Donald Trump to "completely abolish" the reciprocal tariffs, which include a 145% duty on imports from China.

"We urge the U.S. to heed the rational voices of the international community and domestic parties, take a big stride in correcting its mistakes, completely abolish the wrongful action of 'reciprocal tariffs,'" the ministry said in an online statement, according to a CNBC translation.

The recent exemptions of tariffs on imports of tech products are being presented domestically as Trump is backing down and further evidence that Chinese supply chains are not easily replaceable by U.S. companies.