CNBC Daily Open: Tech tariff exemption suggests the importance of consumers

On late Friday, the Trump administration welcomed the weekend in the best way: by announcing that electronics — such as smartphones, computers and semiconductors — will be temporarily exempted from his so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs, including the baseline 10% rate on all countries.

That means such products imported from China will apparently not be subjected to the 125% tariff U.S. President Donald Trump slapped on Beijing (a 20% tariff will remain). Apple CEO Tim Cook must be heaving a sigh of relief: The Cupertino-based company manufactures around 80% of iPads and more than half of Mac computers in China, according to an estimate from Evercore ISI.

The news is also a relief for consumers, who desperately need an uplift in mood, based on the findings of the University of Michigan's latest survey. After all, it's not just corporations and importers that are affected by tariffs. Laptop prices have already shot up, according to disgruntled comments on Reddit. The Nintendo Switch 2 preorder was postponed.

Perhaps even Trump is keeping in mind the famous Wall Street adage: Don't bet against the U.S. consumer.

Tech exempted from tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump exempted smartphones, computers, and other tech devices and components from his reciprocal tariffs, according to guidance issued by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection late Friday evening. The White House said on Saturday the exemptions were made because Trump wants to ensure that companies have time to move production to the U.S.

U.S. markets rise amid a volatile week
U.S. stocks climbed Friday to end the week on a positive note despite heavy market turbulence caused by the Trump administration's tariffs. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained nearly 5% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.3%. Europe's regional Stoxx 600 index lost 0.1%, following its best session since March 2022. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 closed 0.64% higher after data showed the British economy grew 0.5% in February on a monthly basis, significantly more than expected.

Consumers in the U.S. are really downcast
Consumer sentiment in April sank further, according to the University of Michigan's survey. It posted a mid-month reading of 50.8 — the lowest since June 2022 and the second lowest in the survey's history going back to 1952 — below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. At the same time, respondents' expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March.

'Very close' to a recession
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on Friday told CNBC that he thinks "we're very close, if not in, a recession now." However, Fink said he did not think the U.S. was in a financial crisis and expects "megatrends" like artificial intelligence would persist. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio raised similar alarm bells Sunday, saying the country is "very close to a recession" — but he's "worried about something worse than a recession" if the situation isn't handled well.

Big bank earnings
JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley reported earnings Friday. Both banks beat expectations, helped by booming equity trading activity. JPMorgan saw a 48% surge in equity trading revenue, while that of Morgan Stanley spiked 45%. At JPMorgan's earnings call, CEO Jamie Dimon said analysts have "reduced their S&P estimate earnings by 5%" in recent days—and he expects that to "come down some more."

[PRO] European outperformance over the U.S.
While the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 11% year to date, the pan-European STOXX 600 index is down just 4.4%. Other European bourses are also faring considerably better than those in the U.S. Germany's DAX, in fact, is even in positive territory. CNBC's Ganesh Rao explains why this is so, and charts the risks ahead despite Europe's outperformance of the U.S. so far.

China urges Trump to correct mistakes and heed 'rational voices' on reciprocal tariffs

China's Commerce Ministry called the U.S. tariff exemptions a "small step" and urged U.S. President Donald Trump to "completely abolish" the reciprocal tariffs, which include a 145% duty on imports from China.

"We urge the U.S. to heed the rational voices of the international community and domestic parties, take a big stride in correcting its mistakes, completely abolish the wrongful action of 'reciprocal tariffs,'" the ministry said in an online statement, according to a CNBC translation.

The recent exemptions of tariffs on imports of tech products are being presented domestically as Trump is backing down and further evidence that Chinese supply chains are not easily replaceable by U.S. companies.