CNBC Daily Open: ECB heads for a hike amid Iran energy price pressures

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to today's edition of the Daily Open newsletter.

Investors are anticipating a hawkish hike from the European Central Bank today, and an escalation in tensions in Iran will only add to that urgency.

The European Central Bank is all but certain to hike rates for the first time in almost three years. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point hike ahead of the policy decision today, as the central bank grapples with rising inflation, driven by higher energy costs due to the ongoing war in Iran.

Headline inflation for the euro zone rose to 3.2% in April as energy prices surged. More worryingly for the ECB, core inflation rose to 2.5%, primarily driven by higher services costs, which could be the first signs of second-round effects.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak after the monetary policy decision, and you can watch that press conference here.

Meanwhile, U.S. inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in three years, up 4.2% on an annualised basis in May. U.S. President Donald Trump's reaction to the data was to tell a press conference: "I love the inflation."

Tensions in the Middle East have flared up once again, with the U.S. striking multiple targets across Iran on Wednesday. Kuwait has closed its airspace due to "Iranian aggressions," while Israel has warned of more launches expected from Lebanon.

The escalation is driving oil prices higher, despite Trump's claims that the U.S. helped secretly move over 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

In corporate news, British retail group Frasers has launched a €2 billion ($2.31 billion) takeover bid for German premium brand Hugo Boss. The €38 per share offer represents a 4% premium to Hugh Boss' last closing share price, with the board saying it will review the offer.

— Leonie Kidd

The World Cup will likely be the biggest gambling event in history

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to be the biggest betting event in history — and the first to test the U.S. sports-wagering market at full scale.

The tournament kicks off Thursday in Mexico City and will end about six weeks later at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Between those two bookends, 48 teams will compete in 104 matches.

Analysts predict the betting opportunities could reshape customer acquisition for sportsbooks, prediction markets and the sports-data companies that power them.

Global wagers on the 2026 World Cup could top $50 billion, up from more than $35 billion during the 2022 tournament according to Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon.

— Contessa Brewer