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Al-Qaeda and its web of affiliated extremist groups are now estimated to be 50 times larger than they were when the September 11 attacks took place.
07:22, Fri, Feb 6, 2026 Updated: 07:32, Fri, Feb 6, 2026
Jihadist groups are now active across several regions according to the new research (Image: Getty)
Al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups are now estimated to be around 50 times larger than they were at the time of the September 11 attacks, according to the UN. The claim is based on figures gathered by a United Nations monitoring body, as Al-Qaeda is no longer centrally organised as it was under Osama bin Laden and instead operates through affiliated groups active in local conflicts.
Intelligence compiled for the UN Security Council found that the organisation and its allies now command around 25,000 fighters worldwide spread across multiple regions including the Middle East and Africa. At the time of the 9/11, al-Qaeda was believed to have around 500 members.
The findings, drawn from intelligence shared by agencies such as the UK's MI6 were shared during a briefing at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world's oldest defence and security think tank, ahead of the publication of the UN’s annual report on global terrorism.
Al-Qaeda is now assessed to be 50 times its pre-9/11 size. (Image: Getty)
Colin Smith, coordinator of the UN’s monitoring team, warned that threat had become "multipolar", with jihadist groups operating across several regions rather than from a single base, The Times reported.
He said: "They have not laid down their weapons. They are still planning attacks against us, they are still plotting. The threat is still there — we neglect that threat or we overlook it, frankly, at our peril."
According to the report, the 25,000-strong estimate is deliberately cautious and does not include Islamic State fighters. The UN assessment also highlights a shift in how al-Qaeda recruits.
Unlike the more ideologically driven core members of 2001, many recent recruits have been drawn in through local grievances, poverty and financial incentives, rather than adherence to a global jihadist vision.
Another major concern raised by the team is the growing focus on children and young people with terrorist groups believing them to be easier to indoctrinate. In some cases, children as young as 11 have reportedly been recruited.
Terrorist organisations are also becoming more technologically sophisticated, producing detailed online material on topics ranging from armed drones to homemade liquid explosives. The UN warned that the volume and accessibility of this information is increasing the overall threat level.
Ransom payments for kidnapped civilians and aid workers are also providing militant groups with significant funding streams, allowing them to replenish weapons and expand operations.
The report further raises alarms about prisoners linked to Islamic State and their families escaping from camps in northeast Syria. As of July 2025, more than 30,000 individuals including 8,500 nationals from more than 62 countries, mostly women and children, remain in the camps.
Mr Smith said: "We don’t know how many escaped. It doesn’t take many of them to escape, be released or go back home to cause significant problem or threat in our home countries."
In the absence of a clear political, legal or moral authority willing to take responsibility for Al-Hol, the camp has reportedly become a place where extremist ideology is sustained and passed on.
According to the research, the group is now believed to be exploring maritime attacks alongside renewed interest in operations beyond the region.
Experts also cautioned that global attention has increasingly shifted toward conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as tensions with China potentially drawing focus away from the evolving terrorist threat.
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Dr Joana de Deus Pereira, a senior counterterrorism researcher at RUSI Europe, warned that extremist groups have repeatedly shown their resilience and adaptability, particularly through the use of artificial intelligence and emerging technologies.
The expert warned that neglecting such conflicts could see them "become as lethal as those we are observing."
English (US) · 