Caught between the UK and EU: What’s next for young Scots?

“It's so much more than a traditional political debate,” says 25-year-old Annie. “It's your identity, your values, your culture. It's your way of being.”

Annie is a student at the University of Glasgow. She grew up in North Ayrshire, in the west of Scotland, in a family that was firmly against Scottish independence. “They identified as British, not Scottish,” she explains. 

Her parents are what would be traditionally described as Unionists: anti-independence, Protestant and loyal to the British monarchy. In 2014, at the time of the only ever Scottish independence referendum, they both voted No.

Like her parents, Annie too is against Scottish independence, but her reasons, unlike theirs, are much more practical than nationalist. “We're in such a geopolitically unstable time,” she says, “how could we legitimise leaving the stability that the Union provides us for no guarantees that we would be involved within the EU?” 

If being accepted back into the EU was a guaranteed outcome for an independent Scotland, however, Annie would be happy to switch camps. “No questions asked,” she says. “I would 100 percent be keen to leave the Union if it meant rejoining the European Union.” 

Many people in Scotland share Annie’s feelings. In fact, the UK leaving the European Union, something Scottish people voted decisively against in 2016, has given the independence movement renewed momentum. 

“We got taken out of the EU against our will”

While, for decades, No to independence polled consistently 30 to 40 percentage points higher than Yes, pro-independence sentiments increased substantially at the time of the 2016 Brexit referendum, and eventually surpassed the 50 percent benchmark in 2020, when Brexit was definitively implemented. 

Since then, Yes and No have remained neck and neck, with the country split down the middle. The most recent polls, from last February, suggest that 51 percent of Scotland is in favour of independence, and 49 percent against it. Among 18 to 24-year-olds, support for independence rises to 59 percent. 

“One of the pledges of the No campaign at the time of the Scottish independence referendum was that by voting No we were ensuring our European Union membership,” says 23-year-old Iain, “and then two years later that membership was removed”.

“We got taken out of the EU entirely against our will because of what other countries wanted to do,” he adds. In 2016, every single county in Scotland voted Remain. The same is true for most counties in Northern Ireland, although the vote there was more evenly split. In contrast, England and Wales voted predominantly Leave. 

A vote for independence

Iain is from the Isle of Skye, up in the Scottish Highlands. He was born and raised on the island, and now works there as a boat skipper. He comes from a staunchly pro-independence family. 

“I've essentially had (independence) drilled into me from when I was pretty young,” he says, “and obviously when I started to have more of a mind of my own I started to see how beneficial this could be to Scotland as a whole”. 

Iain believes Scotland has everything it takes to stand on its own: that free trade with the EU could replace free trade with the UK, and that a fully independent Scottish government could take better care of the issues that affect Scottish people. 

“The only way ... I see improvements in local governments being made is through independence,” he says. 

A path filled with obstacles

Even though support for independence has grown substantially since 2016, the path to a second referendum is anything but straightforward. 

The Scottish National Party (SNP), the country's main pro-independence party, has long claimed that winning an absolute majority in the Scottish parliament would give it a mandate to call another vote on independence. That is, after all, how the 2014 referendum came to be. 

At the time, however, then prime minister David Cameron had agreed to the vote taking place, something the current UK government seems unlikely to do. And the UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that Scotland cannot hold an independence referendum without the approval of the UK parliament. 

Scottish parliamentary elections will take place on May 7, and the SNP is currently leading in the polls. How many seats they’ll be able to secure, and what this will mean for the independence movement, however, remain open questions. 

Forced to live with the consequences of a Brexit they did not vote for, how does the new generation see the future of Scotland? Inside the UK, or out on its own? Find out more Annie and Iain’s testimonies in this new episode of ENTR’s “Growing up in Europe” series.