Canada’s Liberal Party wins election dominated by Trump’s trade war

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on course to form next government, projections show.

Canada’s governing Liberal Party has won national elections dominated by United States President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, 60, will keep the top job after projections showed his Liberals on course to win the most seats in the 343-member parliament, national broadcaster CBC and CTV News reported late on Monday.

It was not clear if Carney, a career economist and banker who cast himself as a champion for Canada in the face of Trump’s threats, would be able to form a majority government or need to rely on the support of a smaller party.

The Liberals, who have secured a fourth conservative term in power, last won a parliamentary majority in 2015.

The centre-left party had relied on the support of the left-leaning New Democratic Party to pass legislation after narrowly winning the 2021 election with 160 seats.

With the votes still being counted late on Monday, the Liberals were on course to win at least 160 seats, with the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, 45, on track to take at least 151, according to CBC projections.

The result marks a stunning turnaround for the Liberals, who trailed the Conservatives in polls by 20 points as recently as February.

While Poilievre had hoped to capitalise on the widespread unpopularity of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump’s return to the White House prompted a surge in patriotic sentiment in Canada and galvanised voters around the incumbent government.

After comfortably leading the race for more than two years, the Conservatives’ advantage evaporated after Carney stepped in to replace Trudeau and tensions escalated between Ottawa and Washington.

By the time election day came around, the Liberals were polling as clear favourites.

While on the campaign trail, Carney, who had never held political office before becoming prime minister in March, touted his financial experience and pushed back aggressively on Trump’s trade salvoes and threats to turn Canada into the 51st US state.

“Our old relationship with the United States is over, unfortunately,” Carney said in a final pitch to voters on Sunday.

“And America’s leadership of the global economy is over. And this, this is a tragedy. This is still in play. But it is a tragedy. It is also our new reality. We have to recognise it.”

“We will fight,” Carney added. “We will fight Trump’s counter-tariffs. In fact, we are already we’re fighting them with our own counter-tariffs that cause maximum damage in the United States with minimum impact here in Canada.”

As Canadians went to the polls on Monday, Trump returned to his talking point about Canada becoming a US state.

“Good luck to the Great people of Canada,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago.”

Nearly 29 million of Canadians were eligible to vote in the election, with a record 7.3 million voters casting ballots in advance of the poll.