Brazilian stocks jump as Bolsonaro now seen as heavy favorite to win presidency

Brazil's right-wing presidential hopeful Flavio Bolsonaro (L) waves with his wife Fernanda Bolsonaro during the launching of his candidacy within the Liberal Party (PL) convention, in Sao Paulo, Brazil on July 25, 2026.Nelson Almeida | Afp | Getty ImagesBrazilians will decide in just under three weeks whether to re-elect incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or oust him with Flávio Bolsonaro — the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — as both advanced to a run-off after receiving the most votes in the first round vote on Sunday. But the results of the first round are recalibrating how investors are pricing what the final decision will be. Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi now give Bolsonaro a more than 80% chance of winning the presidency. Before Sunday's first round results came in, he had about a 60% chance to win. On Polymarket, Bolsonaro's odds are now 85%, jumping from 63% before the first round count. While Bolsonaro was seen as a narrow favorite to win the presidency before Sunday's first round, he was widely expected to trail the incumbent Lula in that initial tally, according to pre-election polls. This was the case even as Bolsonaro was favored t...